Pacquiao winning popularity contest at books
It could be a 12-round slugfest, with Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao trading staggering shots to whip the crowd into a frenzy. It could be one of the most memorable battles in boxing history.
“Hopefully, the fight lives up to the hype,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said.
But that could be fantasy. In reality, these two fighters rarely display knockout power, and it’s probably not going to resemble a “Rocky” movie. The decision is probably going to the three judges, and there could be controversy.
It’s doubtful Mayweather-Pacquiao, a fight several years in the making that is finally going down Saturday night at MGM Grand Garden, can match the hype. But we can hope, and we finally can bet on it.
The betting action might turn out to be the most memorable aspect of this event, because it’s not bombastic to call it the Super Bowl of boxing. The wagering handle in the state could be that big.
“If it gets to $100 million, this is going to be one great night in the state of Nevada for sure,” said Rood, who projects the state’s handle to land between $60 million and $80 million.
Rood said he has fielded “six or seven inquiries” from people interested in placing wagers of at least $1 million. So far, the biggest wager he has booked is $500,000 on Pacquiao. As of today, Mayweather is a minus-200 favorite at MGM Resorts, with Pacquiao getting plus-170.
“We had a run on Pacquiao for about 10 days,” Rood said. “But when we went minus-180, it really started coming in on Mayweather. I’m waiting for a couple big Mayweather bets that might be coming in. I think it’s a great fight to bet because the price is right for both guys.”
Apparently, several bettors — or conspiracy theorists — also like the price on the draw, which is offered at 8-1 odds. Rood lowered the odds after getting hit hard at 12-1. As of today, Rood said, that result would be “our biggest loser.”
On the weekend before the fight, I checked out the action at four other Las Vegas books, and it’s obvious Pacquiao is winning the popularity contest with the betting public.
At the Westgate, the minus-215 price on Mayweather is the highest in town, although 88 percent of the tickets are on Pacquiao, who is at plus-185. In mid-February, Mayweather was minus-275 and Pacquiao was plus-235.
“The number of tickets written so far on Pacquiao is unprecedented,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “We took a couple of six-figure wagers on Mayweather, so if the fight was tonight, we would need Pacquiao. But day by day, that liability is reduced on Mayweather.
“It’s still early. Approximately 70 percent of the handle will come in the last two or three days. But it’s always the question, what kind of bigger money will we see before the fight?
“This is probably going to be the biggest-bet fight in history. I am thinking $80 million to $100 million (for the handle), but I know I’m on the high side. When I look at the numbers, it looks like Super Bowl numbers.”
Almost $116 million was wagered in Nevada on this year’s Super Bowl, but that total included the futures board and propositions. The number of boxing props offered is minuscule by comparison. The fight handle is on pace to surpass what was wagered on the Super Bowl point spread.
At the South Point, oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said Pacquiao tickets are being written at a 5-to-1 ratio and the book is taking “about $15,000 to $20,000 a day” on the fight. Mayweather is minus-190 and Pacquiao is plus-165.
“I don’t know what is going to happen,” Vaccaro said, “but I still think the flight closes around minus-180 Mayweather.”
Vaccaro said by midweek the South Point will post a two-way price on the draw, which is at 5-1 odds and has been attracting heavy action.
At William Hill books around the state, Mayweather is minus-200, but the underdog is generating tickets at a 4-to-1 ratio.
“We’re buried on Pacquiao,” said William Hill book director Nick Bogdanovich, who plans to offer live wagering during the fight. “It has been steady, nothing crazy yet, but that will change. It will be pandemonium. Everyone will have a bet on this fight.”
At Sunset Station, sports book director Chuck Esposito is looking forward to a big weekend with the Kentucky Derby and NBA and NHL playoffs.
“But they all play second fiddle to this fight,” Esposito said. “The hype, the drama this fight brings to the table, everybody has been waiting for this to happen. This fight has worldwide appeal. In the 48 hours leading up to the fight, you’ll see the bulk of the handle come in.
“I don’t think it will be a one-sided fight. I do give Pacquiao a chance in this fight, but I do favor Mayweather in a unanimous decision.”
If Mayweather wins by split decision, or it ends in a draw, the hype for a second fight will begin.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.