Other Harbaugh worth investment
It must be nice to be Jim Harbaugh. The bidding for his services has reached the point of absurdity, with the Miami Dolphins reportedly offering him $8 million per year.
The Stanford coach, who also reportedly turned down the Dolphins, is not the only hot commodity in his family. The other brother, John Harbaugh, has coached the Baltimore Ravens back to the playoffs.
Bettors don’t care much about NFL coaching changes today, not with four postseason games on the weekend schedule. But bettors appear to care a great deal about the Ravens, the most popular team of the eight in the wild-card round.
According to a few Las Vegas sports book directors, both the public and wiseguys are behind the Ravens as 3-point road favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
“If I had to make a declaration as of this moment, it looks like there’s a double bang coming on Baltimore,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books.
That means the books will probably be pulling for both home underdogs. The ugly ‘dog is Seattle, which is getting 10 to 10½ points against the New Orleans Saints on Saturday.
The Ravens (12-4) ranked 22nd in the league in total offense and quarterback Joe Flacco is a little flaky, but it’s obvious why the wagering is turning into a one-sided attack against the Chiefs.
In losing two of its last four games — 31-0 at San Diego and 31-10 to Oakland — Kansas City (10-6) crashed and burned. Bettors, in turn, lost belief in the Chiefs.
Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and the Baltimore defense should be able to contain Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones and Kansas City’s top-ranked rushing offense, and if that happens, the Ravens will win another road game in January. They did it at New England last year.
Baltimore opened as a 2½-point favorite at most books, so Vaccaro said the number is unlikely to move any higher because of the obvious risk of getting middled.
“I hate to say 3½’s will show,” Vaccaro said. “It opens up your backside a little bit.”
Home ‘dogs in the playoffs are 19-8 against the spread since 1980, a trend that puts writer/handicapper Dave Tuley (Viewfromvegas.com) on seven-win Seattle. He called the double-digit line an “overadjustment.”
The Saints were 11½-point home favorites when they spanked the Seahawks 34-19 in Week 11. The betting public will be riding Drew Brees and the defending Super Bowl champs, according to Vaccaro. “There won’t be a parlay card on the ‘dog,” he said.
For the record, I’ll side with one road favorite (Ravens) and home underdog (Seahawks).
The other games are tough to figure, and they set up better for bookmakers with heavy two-way action expected. Indianapolis is a 2½-point favorite over the New York Jets on Saturday, while Philadelphia is favored by 2½ to 3 points over Green Bay on Sunday.
The Packers, at about plus-125 on the money line, are getting support to knock off Michael Vick and the Eagles.
“I’m pretty positive you’ll get two-way play on those games,” Vaccaro said. “If you make the money line attractive enough on both of those ‘dogs, you’ll get play there.
“If I were to play, and I surely don’t, I think I would favor the Packers, especially at 3. It looks like defenses have figured out how to slow down Vick a little bit.”
The odds are against one of the teams favored by about 3 winning by 3, according to handicapper Andy Iskoe’s research. In 83 games this season, a team was favored by 2½, 3 or 3½ points, and the favorite won by 3 in six of those games (7.2 percent).
The Seahawks are the biggest home underdogs in NFL playoff history. Only one other home ‘dog since 1988 was getting more than 3½ points, and that home ‘dog won outright.
n BOTTOM LINES — The Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, which required a $1,500 entry fee and had 345 entrants, was won by Richard Stand with a 54-28-3 ATS record.
Bill Krackomberger won the $100,000-entry fee Cantor High Stakes Football Contest at the M Resort. Krackomberger (49-36) collected $490,000, 70 percent of the prize pool.
Mike Colbert, the M Resort sports book director for Cantor Gaming, was aiming for a $1 million NFL handicapping contest.
“It was a great final day. Four guys could have won it,” Colbert said. “We wanted more people, but it was a good contest. I’m not sure exactly what we’ll do next year.”
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.