Osweiler, Broncos merit bet as 3-point favorites against Bengals

By Matt Youmans Las Vegas Review-Journal

9 years ago

Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Heinz Field. The Steelers won the game, 34-27. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) and quarterback Peyton Manning (R) talk on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 34-27. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

With time winding down in the regular season, it’s possible we have seen the last of Peyton Manning. He’s not going to completely disappear — he will be on the sideline wearing a stocking cap and appearing in numerous commercials — but will he quarterback another game for the Denver Broncos?

Manning made a mess of his most recent game on Nov. 15, and the Broncos have been Brock Osweiler’s team since. Osweiler lost his past two starts, failing to produce a score in the second half of either game, after winning his first three.

Osweiler has been regressing, and no one knows if a deteriorating Manning has anything left. The Broncos’ choices are not as appealing as Miss Colombia and Miss Philippines.

Manning’s future hinges partly on his next workout this weekend. If he shows progress in his recovery from a foot injury, we might seem him again in Week 17 or the playoffs. It’s too soon to write him off. Osweiler is not as bad as some things that have been written about him.

In the first half at Pittsburgh last week, Osweiler passed for three touchdowns and ran for one. The second half was a disaster, of course. But if Vernon Davis and Demaryius Thomas did not drop a few passes that Osweiler put right in their hands, it could be a different story. Osweiler has seven touchdown passes and three interceptions in his five starts.

His most important start comes Monday against Cincinnati, which will go with AJ McCarron at quarterback for the second week in a row. McCarron was good enough to beat San Francisco, but Denver ranks No. 1 in the NFL in total defense and pass defense. McCarron is not Ben Roethlisberger, and the Bengals were recently blasted by the Steelers.

In a clouded AFC postseason picture, this game holds great meaning for both teams. The Broncos (10-4) can secure a No. 2 seed and a first-round bye by winning their final two games. The Bengals (11-3) are chasing a bye that would allow quarterback Andy Dalton time to heal from a broken right thumb.

After two losses, the price on Denver has dropped, and it’s the right time to buy. I’ll ride the Broncos as 3-point favorites at minus-120, the line posted at CG Technology, Golden Nugget and William Hill books.

This is a strange time of the season because of so many quarterback question marks. It has gotten so bad for some teams that Kellen Moore (Dallas), Brandon Weeden (Houston), Blaine Gabbert (San Francisco), Case Keenum (St. Louis) and Zach Mettenberger (Tennessee) are in starting roles.

Baltimore will go with either Jimmy Clausen or Ryan Mallett. If Drew Brees goes down in New Orleans, look for Matt Flynn or Garrett Grayson. The Bengals-Broncos matchup is a battle of backups, and Denver should have the edge with Osweiler.

Four more picks for Week 16 (home team in CAPS):

EAGLES (-3) over Redskins: It’s far from over in the NFC East because first-place Washington (7-7) closes with two road games. The Redskins are 1-5 on the road, and Kirk Cousins has six touchdown passes and nine interceptions on the road. Everyone wants to leave Philadelphia (6-8) for dead, so this is probably a game coach Chip Kelly will win to keep the Eagles’ postseason hopes alive.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Bears: Tampa Bay continues to play with some fire late in the season, and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston looks more inspired than Jay Cutler. Chicago is 0-3 straight up and against the spread in December.

Patriots (-3) over JETS: New England usually gets all it can handle from both New York teams. The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings with the Patriots. But tight end Rob Gronkowski is terrorizing defenses again, and veteran Steven Jackson’s addition puts fresh legs in the backfield. Laying a field goal, it’s tough not to side with Tom Brady.

Packers (+4½) over CARDINALS: Aaron Rodgers does not make many mistakes, which is why Green Bay can hang in this game. The Packers’ 11 turnovers are the fewest in the league. Arizona’s defense has 29 takeaways, second-most in the league. I’ll take points with Rodgers in what should be a shootout with Carson Palmer.

Last week: 3-1-1 against the spread

Season: 38-33-4

— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow: @mattyoumans247.