Notre Dame underrated? Overrated? We’ll see
On his best days, Nick Saban is as mean as a rattlesnake. But we always know what to expect from the Alabama coach and his team, and that’s a good fight from a legitimate heavyweight.
The rest of the college football world is a costume party. Each Saturday, there are teams exposed as phonies – last week it was Southern California – while others prove to be for real. Either way, the truth starts to emerge in late September.
We’re about to find out if Notre Dame is fit to be a contender. The Fighting Irish have fooled us before, but this year appears to be different.
“I walked into the office one day and I said, ‘Notre Dame is loaded,’ ” said Kenny White, a DonBest.com handicapper and former chief oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
White was researching teams in August and trying to put a rating on the Irish. A colleague turned to him, took a drag from a cigarette, and said, “Let me remind you, you’ve been saying that for five years.”
White replied, “You’re right. I probably overrated Notre Dame again.”
On second thought, maybe not. The Irish are 3-0 after victories over Navy, Purdue and Michigan State, and they will attempt to complete a three-game Big Ten sweep on Saturday against Michigan.
The Wolverines, who were undressed by Alabama in a 41-14 loss on Sept. 1, are 5½-point road underdogs. That’s not a bad position in this rivalry, because the ‘dog is 14-2 against the spread in the past 16 meetings.
Denard Robinson, Michigan’s quarterback, is a video game player who darts across the field sort of like Michael Vick. The problem with the Wolverines still is their matador defense, a unit that surrendered 25 points to Air Force.
Brian Kelly’s third Notre Dame team is by far his best and a sign of what’s to come.
“Kelly is as good of a coach as there is in the country,” said Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert, who expects the Irish to win and cover. “I think Notre Dame is only going to get better.”
The Irish are much stronger defensively than last year, when they took a 24-7 lead into the fourth quarter and collapsed in a 35-31 loss at Michigan. Robinson was unstoppable, striking for one big play after another.
The strength of Notre Dame’s defense is in the front seven. The problem lies in the secondary, where the Irish have lost starters Jamoris Slaughter and Lo Wood and lack experience.
“Robinson is going to have to beat them with his arm,” White said. “I don’t think it’s going to be a shootout like last year, because Notre Dame’s defense is better.”
With input from a few other oddsmakers, White produces the weekly Don Best Linemakers Poll, which can be accessed on “The Linemakers” link at SportingNews.com. His ratings on Notre Dame (116) and Michigan (114.6) indicate the point spread is where it should be after factoring in about 5 points for the Irish’s home-field advantage.
A few significant disparities between his ratings and the betting lines are revealed each week. Last week, White’s ratings showed a 17½-point difference between Texas and Mississippi. The Longhorns, 10-point favorites, won, 66-31.
A matchup that jumps out this week is Air Force-UNLV. White’s ratings make the Falcons 20½ points better, but the actual line is 10½. The Rebels’ home-field advantage is worth only 1½ points.
White forecasted Boise State as 1 point better than Brigham Young, and that margin was as accurate as it gets. The Broncos won 7-6 on Thursday night.
He said he sees point-spread value in Auburn, Colorado State, Hawaii, Idaho and New Mexico in some of Saturday’s lower-profile games.
Win, lose or cover Saturday, Notre Dame will have plenty of opportunities to show its true value. The Irish face Miami, Stanford, BYU and Oklahoma on consecutive Saturdays in October.
“That’s a gauntlet of a run,” White said. “If you get through that unscathed, you’ve done something pretty good.”
■ CLOSING NUMBERS – I expect Notre Dame to exact revenge on Michigan, but based on the underdog trend in the series, I’m not laying the points. Here is a play for today and five for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
Baylor (-7) over LOUISIANA-MONROE; BALL STATE (+9½) over South Florida; COLORADO STATE (+13½) over Utah State; Clemson (+14½) over FLORIDA STATE; AUBURN (+20½) over Louisiana State; New Mexico (+6½) over NEW MEXICO STATE.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.