Marathon season wearing on Curry, wobbling Warriors
It was fun to watch while it lasted. But after an historic run, Stephen Curry is jogging on hurt and tired legs, and the end appears to be near for the Golden State Warriors.
A team that burst out of the gate 24-0 and won a record 73 regular-season games is staggering to the wire. The Warriors are winded and wobbling at the tail end of this NBA marathon that started in late October and suddenly seems destined to hit a dead end for them in late May.
“It’s hard to perform at a top level for that long,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said, “especially for a Golden State team that put so much into getting that record.”
It’s risky business to go on blind dates, get into political debates and write off the Warriors, a championship team with shooters capable of getting hot in a heartbeat, but it’s tempting. Golden State lived to see another day, posting a 120-111 victory over Oklahoma City on Thursday night in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals, but it was the expected result.
The Warriors were not going out on their home court, not after getting embarrassed in back-to-back losses on the road, yet while facing elimination they labored most of the way and were fortunate to cover as 7½-point favorites.
This is not the same Golden State team that made it look so simple for six months, and Curry is not quite the same two-time Most Valuable Player who led the league in scoring and mind-boggling moments.
“Curry says he’s fine, but he doesn’t want to make excuses,” Bogdanovich said.
The reality is Curry is playing at far less than 100 percent on a sore right knee. He’s having trouble beating bigger defenders off the dribble and the lift is not there on his jumper. He’s missing layups instead of making circus shots.
Meanwhile, the Thunder look fresh and hot. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can penetrate any defense and reach the rim with ease. Bearded big man Steven Adams is tougher than the average pirate and can take a kick to the crotch and keep fighting.
“You watch these two teams play, and there’s certainly not that much difference,” Sportsmemo.com handicapper Erin Rynning said. “Oklahoma City is just bigger and longer.”
As is often the case in the playoffs, the most obvious difference in Thursday’s game was home-court advantage. The Warriors fed off the energy of their fans and capitalized on the officials’ whistles. Curry and Klay Thompson combined to hit 19 of 20 free throws, and Golden State outscored Oklahoma City by 11 points at the line.
“The refereeing is generally so bad either way. Definitely, the home court played a factor,” Rynning said. “In the first quarter, I didn’t like the way the Warriors looked at all. But in my charting of the game, Golden State came out real well.”
The shot chart for the Thunder was not as impressive. Durant (12 of 31, 40 points) and Westbrook (11 of 28, 31 points) combined for 59 shot attempts. It was the opposite story in Oklahoma City, where the home team rolled by 28 points in Game 3 and by 24 points in Game 4. The Thunder, underdogs in each game of the series so far, opened as 2-point favorites in Game 6 on Saturday.
When asked if bettors are losing faith in Golden State, Bogdanovich said, “How could you not? You don’t get beat by 30 by accident.”
It’s tempting to write of the Warriors after they were blown out twice on the road — and considering the fact NBA teams trailing 3-1 have a 9-223 series record — but the gloomy picture that was painted Tuesday now becomes dramatically brighter if Curry and Thompson can get hot enough to force a Game 7.
“The Warriors blew Game 1 and now seem like they are destined for elimination,” said Doug Kezirian, ESPN “SportsCenter” anchor and sharp NBA analyst. “But they have done the unimaginable all season. Bet against them at your own risk.”
Curry and power forward Draymond Green were lost in the dark in the two losses in Oklahoma City — the Warriors’ first back-to-back losses of the season — but both answered the alarm in Game 5. Curry scored 31, and Green compiled 11 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks. Thompson scored 27 while proving he’s the only Golden State player who can defend Westbrook.
But none of that was surprising, with the Warriors backed into the corner in a win-or-go-fishing game.
“The Thunder just never die, and they just keep coming,” Rynning said.
Winning 73 regular-season games was great accomplishment, but winning a third game in this series might be the Warriors’ biggest challenge.
“It started coming together for the Thunder,” Bogdanovich said. “It said something when they knocked out San Antonio. Confidence is huge. Momentum is huge.”
It would not be a huge surprise if the Warriors rise to the occasion again, but I’ll bet on the Thunder at my own risk.
Cleveland no doubt will win the East. But the Curry-LeBron James rematch in the Finals appears unlikely with a hotter team rising in the West.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247