Kaminsky has shot to knock off Kentucky
It might take a giant to slay the giant. The undisputed king of college basketball, as of now, is Kentucky. If there is a legitimate challenger out there, it might be Frank Kaminsky.
One month from today, it will be time to fill out NCAA Tournament brackets for the office pool, and I never pick the favorite to win it.
The favorite this time around has been obvious since November, way back when Bruce Jenner still was a man. Three months ago, we started asking if Wildcats coach John Calipari compiled a team talented enough to run with the worst team in the NBA. That’s a pointless debate.
The only question that counts is this: Who is capable of taking down Calipari?
“I’m not going to say it’s Kentucky and everybody else,” Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello said. “Kentucky already has escaped three games that could have been a loss.”
The Wildcats (25-0) escaped from Mississippi in overtime, Texas A&M in two overtimes and Louisiana State by two points. Kentucky has won a majority of its games by blowout, but it’s inevitable that a few more close calls are coming.
Avello posted a proposition bet last week: Will Kentucky win the national championship? The “No” side is minus-120 and “Yes” is even money.
“You get the whole field,” Avello said, adding in a surprised tone, “but there’s not too much interest on the field.”
The Wildcats’ odds are 5-7 at the Westgate Las Vegas book, so taking even money at this point is not a bad bet. But let’s look at the field, because it’s not a one-horse race.
“Who can beat Kentucky?” asked handicapper Ken Thomson of Pregame.com and SportsXradio.com. “If you give me two teams, I would take Arizona and Wisconsin. The next two would be Gonzaga and Utah.”
Calipari has a collection of elite NBA prospects who play both ends of the floor. Andrew Harrison is the guard who makes it go. The inside story centers on 7-foot Willie Cauley-Stein and 6-foot-11-inch Karl-Anthony Towns. The rest of the rotation is made up of guys who fill roles for the Wildcats but could be first team all-Mountain West players.
Kentucky can look incredible and beatable in the same week. Avello said he figures on the right night there are a “half dozen” teams capable of beating Calipari. So here is a look at that dirty half dozen, with the best futures odds available at the Westgate and Wynn:
■ Wisconsin (10-1) — One point is all that separated Kaminsky and Kentucky in last season’s Final Four. After a heartbreaking 74-73 loss to the Wildcats, the 7-footer returned for his senior season, and Wisconsin is 23-2 and running away from the pack in the Big Ten at 11-1. The Badgers lost to Duke in early December and to Rutgers in early January, when Kaminsky was out with a concussion.
I agree with Thomson, who said, “There’s no doubt Wisconsin can win the whole thing.”
■ Arizona (12-1) — These are the other Wildcats, who have won 22 games and lost at UNLV, Oregon State and Arizona State. A senior point guard is a big help, and coach Sean Miller has a good one in T.J. McConnell. Freshman forward Stanley Johnson will be a lottery pick. Johnson and McConnell are surrounded by athletes and big men.
“I’m impressed with Arizona, which is starting to put away the weak teams early and crush them,” Thomson said.
■ Gonzaga (14-1) — The Bulldogs (26-1) are probably bored with mediocre competition in the West Coast Conference, but their one loss — at Arizona in overtime — proved this team is not phony.
Mark Few is a sharp coach who can match Calipari’s moves. Few has six players who can compete on Kentucky’s level. Kevin Pangos is a senior point guard. Kyle Wiltjer, a 6-10 forward, is a Kentucky transfer. Domantas Sabonis (6-10) and Przemek Karnowski (7-1) are big and skilled.
■ Villanova (30-1) — It also helps to have a great senior shooting guard. Darrun Hilliard hit eight 3-pointers, including the game-winner, and scored 31 points in a 68-65 win Saturday at Butler. The Wildcats (23-2) of the Big East and coached by Jay Wright might be a long shot, but they have a shot.
■ Virginia (12-1) — Tony Bennett is a rising star as a coach because of how tenaciously his team defends. The Cavaliers (23-1) could be flying under the radar while their No. 2 scorer, guard Justin Anderson, misses about another month with a hand injury.
■ Duke (7-1) — The Blue Devils (22-3) won at Virginia and Wisconsin, so they probably have the best shot to beat Kentucky. Jahlil Okafor, a 6-11 freshman center, is flanked by a crew of former McDonald’s All-Americans.
“I like Duke, but I’m not sold on Okafor like everybody else,” Thomson said. “He’s not that strong, so he can get pushed out of the blocks down low by Kentucky’s big men. I don’t think he’s ready for the NBA, and he will be, but he needs to bulk up. I know the kid is talented, and he’s projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, but I would like to see him stay in college one more year.”
Thomson made an enthusiastic case for Utah. There is a case to be made for Kansas, too, even though Kentucky made the Jayhawks look like the Washington Generals in a 72-40 slaughter in November.
Three months later, Kentucky is undefeated but does not appear unbeatable. When I fill out a bracket next month, my national champion will be Duke or Kaminsky.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.