In battle of incompetence, take Colts over Saints
Even before the trick-play debacle, Chuck Pagano’s job was in jeopardy. Under his leadership, which now appears clumsy at best, the Indianapolis Colts are getting as stale as month-old bread.
The expiration date for Pagano’s stay as Colts coach is near, and the signs are everywhere. He’s fighting with team management, getting more defiant with the media and drawing up comical gimmick plays that never would fool a junior high team, let alone the New England Patriots.
In addition, quarterback Andrew Luck is not improving and might actually be regressing. Pagano is not making the Colts better.
In 2012, when Pagano missed 12 games during a fight with leukemia, Bruce Arians took control of the team and worked wonders. Arians is doing the same in Arizona, while Pagano has turned from an inspirational story into a guy perceived as an incompetent clown.
That’s the narrative now, and it might be somewhat unfair, but it’s what happens when you pull the trigger on a trick play and shoot yourself in the foot while everyone is watching. The Colts are a long way from beating the Patriots, winning the AFC and raising a meaningful banner.
The answer to the Colts’ uncertain future could be standing on the opposite sideline Sunday. Sean Payton would be the ideal replacement for Pagano in Indianapolis. Payton, a sharp offensive mind and one of the NFL’s top young coaches, would make Luck better and take the team to the next level.
And Payton could be on the market soon. It’s obvious the party is over in New Orleans. Drew Brees probably has a couple of good years left, but he’s nearing the end, too. When the Saints tried to change their identity and shipped out running back Darren Sproles and tight end Jimmy Graham, they slammed their own door shut on another Super Bowl run.
New Orleans’ team is a bigger mess than Bourbon Street after Mardi Gras. The defense ranks 32nd, allowing 409.7 yards per game, and the rushing offense ranks 31st at 84.7 yards per game. The surprising thing is that Brees, based on the numbers, still is playing relatively well and much better than Luck. It will be all on Brees to beat the Colts.
Luck voiced support for Pagano this week. It’s time to back up the talk. Luck is 14-2 straight up and against the spread following a loss, and I’ll back Indianapolis as a 4-point home favorite.
Pagano’s job is on the line. The Colts should be able to handle the Saints and cover a cheap line in the process.
Four more plays for Week 7 (home team in CAPS):
RAMS (-6) over Browns: Off a bye, after a sloppy performance in a loss at Green Bay, this is a good spot for St. Louis. It’s also a bad matchup for Cleveland. Rookie running back Todd Gurley, who rolled up a total of 305 yards against the Cardinals and Packers, should punish the Browns’ 32nd-ranked run defense. The Rams’ defensive front will pressure mistake-prone quarterback Josh McCown.
CHIEFS (-2½) over Steelers: Is Landry Jones the real deal? No. Jones was remarkable in relief last week, but he’s a bad backup quarterback who’s due for a reality check against the Kansas City defense. After five consecutive losses, it’s time for the Chiefs to show up, and this line is indicating that. It appears Ben Roethlisberger will return next week, and when he does, Pittsburgh will be tough to beat.
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS: New York’s defense ranks No. 1 in the league, allowing just 269 yards and 15 points per game, and presents matchup problems for Tom Brady. The Patriots won the past three meetings in Foxborough by scores of 27-25, 13-10 and 29-26. This should be another close decision.
Raiders (+4) over CHARGERS: Want to raise the stakes? The winner gets to be the first team to move to Los Angeles. San Diego is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games. Oakland, which has covered four of the past five meetings in the rivalry, is a healthier team off a bye. Philip Rivers will be running a Chargers offense that has several key players hobbled.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 15-14-1
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow: @mattyoumans247