Handicapper Steele likes USC plus points against Oregon

If you bet against him, don’t be surprised if you’re throwing a ticket in the trash. He’s so good, he made Andrew Luck look bad.

Oregon puts the nation’s longest home winning streak of 21 games on the line against Southern California on Saturday. The Ducks are favored, of course, with the line fluctuating from 14½ to 15 points.

“I like USC plus the points,” Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele said. “I think we’re going to see a high-scoring game, and maybe the last team with the ball wins it.”

When the Ducks possess the ball, they don’t keep it long. Kelly’s offense finds the end zone in a hurry. Running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas are the leaders of a big-play attack that spreads the field with incredible speed.

In a 53-30 destruction of Stanford last week, Oregon needed less than two minutes to score on five of its six touchdown drives. In essence, every drive for the Ducks is a two-minute drill.

Luck, the Cardinal quarterback and future backup to Peyton Manning with the Indianapolis Colts, was hopeless to keep pace. Stanford had won and covered all nine games this season before getting blown out by Oregon.

Only top-ranked Louisiana State’s defense has been able to handcuff the Ducks. But Steele (PhilSteele.com) said the Trojans appear built to turn the trick, too.

During a nine-game winning streak, the Oregon offense has produced an onslaught of 49 plays of 25 yards or more. Those are termed explosive plays, and the Ducks had none in a 40-27 loss to LSU on Sept. 3. How will the USC defense hold up against James, Thomas, Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas?

“If you’ve got speed and big athletes, you can slow them down,” Steele said. “Stanford’s defense is slow and had not been exposed.”

The Ducks rush for 292 yards per game. Expect the Trojans, who allow 100.4 rushing yards per game, to bend a lot while avoiding a complete breakdown.

A month ago, USC made a statement by beating Notre Dame 31-17 as a 9-point road underdog. Don’t look for a similar prime-time upset in Eugene, Ore., where the night air will be colder than the California kids like, but you can make worse wagers than taking the points with an 8-2 team led by a quarterback who could go high in the next NFL Draft.

Matt Barkley has passed for 29 touchdowns with six interceptions, and he has several weapons even if his top receiver, Robert Woods, is held out with ankle and shoulder injuries.

“Barkley is probably going to be the second quarterback taken in the draft,” Steele said. “The weather concerns me a little bit. But it’s a USC team that is full of pride and went to Notre Dame in a tough environment and won.”

The Ducks defeated the Trojans 53-32 last year in Los Angeles and 47-20 in 2009 in Eugene. This is essentially USC’s bowl game because of NCAA sanctions that make it ineligible for the postseason.

I bet the Trojans plus-8 in their 56-48 triple-overtime loss to Stanford on Oct. 29. That was a sour push. But for bettors who got 7½, the result was a brutal beat.

There was an unusual result in Reno last week, too. UNR led Hawaii by seven points with just over four minutes remaining when Wolf Pack coach Chris Ault called for a fake field-goal attempt on fourth-and-12 from the 15-yard line. A field goal would have iced the game.

Because of an injury, UNR’s punter was its place-kicker. Nevertheless, the Wolf Pack’s trick play ended with a touchdown pass and 42-28 win. The line opened 10 and closed at 14.

This week, Steele is siding with UNR as a 7-point favorite over Louisiana Tech, which has picked up road victories over Mississippi, Fresno State and Utah State in the past month. But this is the Bulldogs’ third straight road game, and the Wolf Pack have covered 23 of their past 31 home games for Ault.

If it was not obvious before last week, Steele said, “Ault knows how to put the hammer down.”

■ CLOSING NUMBERS — The speed of quarterback Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense should be too much for Nebraska. I bet the Wolverines as 2½-point favorites early in the week and will stick with them at 3½ as a newspaper pick.

I’m back to .500 (28-28-2) for the season, and here are five more plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Minnesota-NORTHWESTERN (Over 57½); New Mexico State-BRIGHAM YOUNG (Over 60); WASHINGTON STATE (+3½) over Utah; Boston College (+24½) over NOTRE DAME; Usc (+14½) over OREGON.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.