Experts agree: Saints’ season DOA

Overreacting to anything this early in an NFL season is usually foolish, but this is a common-sense observation. The Saints are a case for the coroner.

We speculated about their demise over the summer, when coach Sean Payton was banned for the season, other coaches and defensive players were suspended, and Brees was holding out for a new contract. It seemed too much turmoil to overcome, so many of us bet under New Orleans’ regular-season win total.

How many games would the Saints win?

"I’ve been saying six the whole time," professional gambler Steve Fezzik said. "Maybe I was a little optimistic. Let’s make it five."

At 0-3, and with a trip to Green Bay up next, it could be awhile before the Saints win their first one. They squandered their best shot Sunday, when the Kansas City Chiefs showed up as the softest spot on the schedule.

New Orleans, an 8½-point favorite, surrendered an 18-point third-quarter lead in a 27-24 overtime loss. The Saints’ funeral was held in the Superdome, where they went 9-0 against the spread last season.

"That was the worst loss of the day for any team, in my opinion," said Mike Colbert, vice president for Cantor Gaming sports books. "When you’re 0-2 going in, you cannot blow that game at home when you’re up 24-6. I think the Saints will win six games tops."

On May 23, Cantor opened the Saints’ win total at 10 over at minus-125. In late July, I bet it under 9½ at plus-110, but never did I think their season would turn into this much of a fiasco this soon.

"The Saints are really kind of scary. They look like they could throw in the towel at any time. I would be surprised if they win seven games," LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "If their defense is awful and they are not playing inspired football, that’s a bad combination."

There is no question the New Orleans defense is awful. Jamaal Charles put the exclamation point on that statement by rushing for 233 yards, including a 91-yard touchdown, to propel the previously winless Chiefs. Brees passed for 240 yards and three touchdowns, but he failed to complete a pass after the third quarter.

The Saints were one of five home favorites to fall in Week 3, with the others being Carolina, Indianapolis, San Diego and Washington. The Chargers were body-slammed 27-3 by Atlanta, a result Colbert predicted in Sunday’s Review-Journal.

"The Chargers were exposed," Colbert said, "and they will finish 8-8 at best." But the good news for the Chargers and Saints is they play each other in New Orleans on Oct. 7.

Going into the weekend, there was too much talk about the replacement referees’ penalty flags favoring home teams and contributing to an alarming number of high-scoring games. So, of course, the trends reversed.

Including the Thursday game, home teams are 7-8 straight up and 5-10 ATS this week. Six games went over the total and nine stayed under.

Underdogs are 11-4 ATS with nine outright wins. The second-biggest upset according to the point spreads was by far the most surprising, and that was San Francisco laying 7 points in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota.

"The 49ers losing is probably the best game of the day for us," Colbert said. "We have a lot of teaser players here, so the 49ers and Saints basically killed every teaser."

When so many ‘dogs cover and win outright, you expect to hear comments like this:

"It’s going to be a pretty good day for the bookmakers," Colbert said.

The New York Jets were one of the four favorites to cover, and they were lucky to do it. The Jets, favored by 2½ at most books but 3 at some spots during the week, escaped Miami with a 23-20 overtime win.

Philadelphia fell at Arizona and Pittsburgh was upset at Oakland, and neither result was much of a surprise. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning each lost for a second straight time, but both were underdogs.

Brady and the Patriots, getting 2½ points, lost 31-30 at the gun in Baltimore. An otherwise good game was scarred by 24 accepted penalties, including several questionable calls by clueless replacement refs.

Sometimes, the NFL is tough to watch and even tougher to bet.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.