Dust the dirt off Meyer, Buckeyes
By now, Urban Meyer was supposed to be irrelevant, a forgotten coach left behind in the carnage of a crazy season. Ohio State was whipped on its home field, and that was that.
Two months ago, when analysts were jumping to conclusions and forgetting to pack a parachute, the Big Ten was eliminated from the big picture. The Buckeyes were buried alive and given no shot of reaching the four-team College Football Playoff.
Of course, that was Sept. 6, the day Michigan State also lost, and a week after Wisconsin fell by the wayside. The league was mocked by the national media and shoveled under 6 feet of dirt.
It’s now time to reconsider and summon the grounds crew at the cemetery. The Buckeyes and Spartans collide Saturday night in East Lansing, Mich., and the winner will come back from the dead and begin to look like a playoff participant.
“One of these Big Ten teams could end up in the final four, which I think could be kind of a travesty,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for The Gold Sheet.
Deserved or not, two Big Ten teams are still breathing, right alongside Florida State, Oregon and about half of the Southeastern Conference. A month ago, after getting whipped on their home field, the Ducks were discarded, too. The Seminoles have cheated playoff death a few times.
The moral of the story is this: When analyzing one-loss teams, don’t jump to conclusions in the first two months of a season. Crazy things can and will happen every year.
Marshall (goldsheet.com) is siding with Michigan State as a 3½-point favorite over Ohio State, which has done nothing too impressive since its 35-21 loss to a bad Virginia Tech team in early September.
The Buckeyes (7-1) have buried Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland, Rutgers and Illinois while also dodging a double-overtime bullet at Penn State. That’s not a chiseled body of work. But a road victory over the Spartans could change their image.
The biggest reason to consider Ohio State a contender is J.T. Barrett, a redshirt freshman quarterback who has grown into a man since that loss to the Hokies. Barrett, promoted when star Braxton Miller suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in August, orchestrates the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense and leads the Big Ten in total offense and passing efficiency.
Miller might not return to Columbus next season or get his starting job back. His next move could be to the Canadian Football League.
Meyer, 3-0 as an underdog at Ohio State, had his team headed for the national championship game last season before Michigan State, a 5-point ’dog, upended the Buckeyes 34-24 in the conference title game. Despite that result, revenge is only a minor factor in handicapping this matchup.
The Spartans are 15-5 against the spread in their past 20 games, including a loss at Oregon in September. That was not a bad loss, all things considered, and I give coach Mark Dantonio a lot of credit for stepping out to schedule a tough nonconference road trip.
“Dantonio has turned out to be a pretty good big-game coach,” Marshall said.
After one loss, Nick Bogdanovich said he was not counting out Michigan State in the playoff race. He was one of the few. A second loss for either team would be the nail in the coffin.
“Obviously, it’s an elimination game. The winner stays alive, and the loser goes home,” said Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director. “I would only have the ’dog. I think Meyer will come with a good game plan, and their quarterback is playing well.”
In the teams’ meeting in East Lansing in 2012, Meyer game-planned Ohio State to a 17-16 win as a 2½-point underdog. This should be another close call, decided by a field goal either way.
It’s an elimination weekend across the country. The Notre Dame-Arizona State loser goes home, as does the Kansas State-Texas Christian loser. Alabama, Baylor and Oregon are on the road and in need of avoiding a second loss.
Bookmakers are expecting the biggest wagering day of the college season. On a normal weekend, South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said, the handle on NFL games surpasses the college handle by about $150,000 at his book.
With six NFL teams on byes this weekend, Vaccaro said, “I would not be surprised if we do more (business) Saturday than Sunday. There were a couple weeks where it was dead even. But this week might be a big boost because the college schedule is super with some unbelievable late games and the NFL schedule is lackluster.”
It will be a super Saturday. By the end of it, Meyer and the Buckeyes might be relevant again.
■ CLOSING NUMBERS — October was a month of optimism for this handicapper, and hopefully this is a weekend that goes to the ’dogs. I went 5-2 in this spot last week to improve to 41-27 for the season. Here are five picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
WASHINGTON (+6) over Ucla; UNLV (+6) over Air Force; Ohio State (+3½) over MICHIGAN STATE; Notre Dame (+2½) over ARIZONA STATE; Kansas State (+6) over TCU.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.