Duke shows it can pay to play favorites
Everyone is entertained by the Cinderella stories. This was not one of them. Jahlil Okafor is too big and skilled, and the 6-foot-11-inch freshman slaughtered San Diego State in a game that played out as expected.
Duke against any team from the Mountain West is a major mismatch. The Aztecs, who figured to have the best shot because of their athletes and relentless defense, had no shot in reality.
The betting public did win some games during the four biggest days of the NCAA Tournament, and this was one of them. Okafor scored 26 points as the Blue Devils, 9½-point favorites, dominated San Diego State 68-49 on Sunday in Charlotte, N.C., where the winners had the advantage of playing close to home and the losers were dancing in quicksand, doomed to sink from the opening tip.
It does pay to play favorites sometimes in March. Some ‘dogs roll over and play dead, and not every game goes to the wire.
“Every wiseguy was on the ‘dog,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director. “But the public was on Duke. Every parlay was on Duke.”
The wiseguys took an ill-advised swing against the Blue Devils and whiffed. It’s a rare storyline when the public wins and the sharps and books lose, but that was the case in this game. It was not the whole story, however, because the books won Thursday’s games in a blowout and few bettors survived and advanced from the weekend.
In general, the bettors were run over along with the Aztecs, who had no answer for Okafor, the probable No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. The Blue Devils, the top seed in the South Region, would be favored against an all-star team from the Mountain West.
“San Diego State is just offensively challenged,” Bogdanovich said. “Their defense and their length can shut down Mountain West teams, but it’s not going to shut down Duke. I said it before the tournament that Duke got the softest bracket and the softest road, as usual. It’s scary how it always shakes out that way.”
It’s also scary how Tom Izzo can coach Michigan State to play its best basketball each March. The Spartans, 4½-point ‘dogs, knocked out Virginia, the No. 2 seed in the East, 60-54.
It’s scary how when the books need one side, because the public jumps all over the opposite side, the books seem to always win. That was case with Louisville, which eliminated Northern Iowa as a popular Cinderella story. The Panthers closed as 2½-point favorites, and something did not look right about that.
“Our day is going to be dictated by Louisville,” MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. “We need Louisville pretty big.”
The Cardinals won big, 66-53, and Rick Pitino moves on again.
It’s scary how good Gonzaga can be on the offensive end. Kyle Wiltjer, a transfer from Kentucky, scored 24 points as the Bulldogs, 6-point favorites, blasted Iowa 87-68.
“Gonzaga was bad,” Bogdanovich said. “Duke was bad.”
But the Louisville result was good enough to make Sunday either a small winner or small loser for most books. Rood called Friday and Saturday “solid winners.” He called Thursday — when some bookmakers reported hold percentages of around 25 percent — one of the best days in history.
“I’ve never seen a day go that way, so one-sided,” Rood said. “From a games and booking standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than that. If you take the futures (wagers) out of the Super Bowl (win), Thursday was probably better than a Super Bowl.”
That’s terrifying. But if you read the law of averages, it states that a random short-term variable will essentially even out over a larger sample. So after Thursday, when Alabama-Birmingham and Georgia State pulled upsets and underdogs went 12-4 against the spread, the favorites were due to fight back.
The favorites and ‘dogs split 16 games Friday, according to ATS stats, but favorites won 15 of the games. Favorites actually won 25 consecutive games until Dayton pulled a minor upset of Providence on Friday night. So, yes, sometimes it pays to play favorites in March, and the bettors fared a little better after the Thursday massacre.
But it did not pay to play Kansas and Wisconsin on Sunday. The Jayhawks closed as 1-point favorites in a humbling 78-65 loss to Wichita State. The Badgers failed to cover 12 points in a 72-65 victory over Oregon.
And it was a bad idea to back Villanova, the top seed in the East, on Saturday. North Carolina State, a 9½-point underdog and plus-450 on the money line, stunned the Wildcats.
The Wildcats from Arizona look scary good. The Wildcats from Kentucky, favored to win the whole thing, are 0-2 ATS and not appearing as scary.
Oklahoma covered in a crazy comeback victory over Dayton, sending coach Lon Kruger back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007 with UNLV.
Underdogs posted a 27-21 ATS record Thursday through Sunday, when most of the Cinderella stories died and the Blue Devils advanced.
This tournament is not totally unpredictable, it just seems that way sometimes.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow @mattyoumans247 on Twitter.