Devilish Saban has Tide on major roll

It would be wrong to say he has a dry sense of humor, because he’s never worth a laugh.

But Saban is admirable for one reason — he’s as good as it gets as a coach, and his fifth season at Alabama is about to reinforce that.

Saban is college football’s version of Bill Belichick. You don’t want to bet against either guy, but you can bet neither has seen a sappy episode of "Sex and the City."

Preseason predictions are another thing Saban has no interest in seeing. He recently ridiculed the media for picking the Crimson Tide No. 1 in the nation, saying among other things, "It means nothing."

But it does mean something when Northcoast Sports handicapper Phil Steele predicts Alabama will win its second national championship in three years, and Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com agrees.

The Tide return every defensive starter but lineman Marcell Dareus, the NFL’s third overall pick by the Buffalo Bills. The offense must replace quarterback Greg McElroy and running back Mark Ingram, but Trent Richardson has proven he can fill Ingram’s shoes.

"With 10 starters back and Saban coaching, that’s going to be a tough defense," Edwards said. "It’s hard to be super confident about a team without seeing the quarterback a lot. But they are so nasty on defense, and they are going to be able to run the ball with Richardson.

"If they get decent play out of the quarterback position, they are going to be damn good. I love almost everything about Alabama."

Most teams open camp today. A.J. McCarron and Phillip Sims will be competing to take over the starting quarterback role, and Edwards noted it was the "same deal" in 2009 when McElroy stepped in and led the Tide to a perfect season.

With regular-season win totals posted at Cantor Gaming sports books and the Las Vegas Hilton, Edwards recommends betting Alabama over 10 at minus-120, and it’s difficult to see Saban leading the Tide to anything worse than a 10-2 record.

Early lines are up at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas and offshore at Betus.com. Alabama is favored by 8½ to 9 points at Penn State on Sept. 10.

"We rated Alabama No. 2 behind Oklahoma," said Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller, who opened lines on about 100 of the season’s key games in early June.

Miller made Boise State a 6-point favorite over Georgia on Sept. 3 in Atlanta, but the number has dropped to 1½. The Broncos, new to the Mountain West Conference, return senior quarterback Kellen Moore and most of last season’s 12-1 team.

"If Boise would get by Georgia, there’s not a whole lot left on their schedule, and they might run the table," Miller said.

In another intriguing Sept. 3 matchup, Edwards is betting Louisiana State as a 1½-point favorite over Oregon in Arlington, Texas. LSU and Arkansas rank right behind Alabama in the Southeastern Conference West, and the Tide get both opponents in Tuscaloosa.

Miller said most wiseguys bet across the board on Arkansas, Georgia and Notre Dame, while they went against Boise State and Michigan.

The Wolverines return 16 starters, including quarterback Denard Robinson, and new coach Brady Hoke has revived hope. Miller opened Michigan as a 2-point home favorite over Notre Dame on Sept. 10, but the Irish are favored by 4½ after a major line move.

"Notre Dame is going to be much improved," Miller said. "But that’s two teams going nothing but up. Michigan is another team getting no respect this year."

Still, I like the Wolverines a lot, so here are three win totals to consider betting over: Notre Dame (8½, minus-130), Florida (7½, plus-110) and Michigan (7, minus-130).

The Gators are reloading with coach Will Muschamp, who brought in offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to fine-tune senior quarterback John Brantley. Florida has won eight or more regular-season games in 19 of the past 21 seasons, and Edwards is expecting at least eight.

"If Brantley gets better and meshes with Weis, and I think he will, Florida has a chance to be pretty good," Edwards said.

On Oct. 1, Alabama will make Florida a home underdog for the first time since 2003.

In arguably the most shocking event of last season, the Tide rolled to a 24-point lead over Auburn before it disappeared faster than passed gas in the wind. The Tigers went on to win it all, a result that truly stunk.

Saban won’t let a fiasco like that happen again.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.