College slate offers vast array of options
In his third year at Notre Dame, coach Brian Kelly still is trying to wake up the echoes, shake down the thunder from the sky and do a few other things that have been missing for quite a while.
It’s probably not going to happen this season, not with the Fighting Irish facing a brutal schedule that should yield about eight wins. The first one for Kelly should come easily.
Many of us will wake up early Saturday – 6 a.m. Pacific – to see if Notre Dame can cover a 16½-point spread against Navy in Dublin.
“We’re seeing some Navy money,” Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert said, “but it’s nothing crazy.”
This is no ordinary week, highlighted by a Bigfoot hoax gone bad and a Clint Eastwood sighting, and a crazy good weekend of college football is on tap. Starting with Thursday’s kickoff of South Carolina at Vanderbilt, and ending around 11 p.m. Saturday with San Diego State at Washington, there will be 55 hours of action and as many as 74 games on the betting board.
Some of those games – South Dakota State at Kansas, for example – are obscure and will be buried on the “Extra Added” board that not every Las Vegas book offers. But the point is, the college schedule presents far more wagering opportunities than the NFL.
In terms of mass appeal, it’s not a fair fight. The NFL is a media-driven monster that pulls kids and senior citizens into fantasy leagues and office pools. When I write about the New England Patriots, I often get emails from women.
When I write about Boise State, only hard-core gamblers seem to care.
Yet, in terms of the sports book handle, the giant doesn’t dwarf college football, even if that is a common perception.
“Believe it or not, it’s pretty similar,” Colbert said. “We do more on college on some weekends. There is more bet per game in the NFL, but with there being so many college games, it ends up being close each week.”
Probably 75 percent of my football betting is on college games, mostly because several more options are available and the lines are generally looser. I focus on five conferences – Big Ten, Big 12, Southeastern, Pacific-12, Mountain West – and Notre Dame.
Everyone has varying areas of emphasis in handicapping and money-management strategies. I stick mainly to straight bets, study line moves closely, try to use in-running wagering to my advantage and, last but not least, always respect the sharp money.
I also attempt to avoid betting on bad teams, though I blurred that line by backing UNLV and Vanderbilt on opening night.
The marquee game on the rotation is a Big Ten-SEC clash between No. 8 Michigan and No. 2 Alabama on Saturday night in Arlington, Texas. Support for the Crimson Tide has moved the line from 11½ to 14.
The last time Nick Saban coached in a big game, and had plenty of time to prepare, Alabama put an embarrassing beating on Louisiana State, so the line move is understandable. But we won’t know where most of the sharp money is going until Saturday afternoon. The early money is on Saban.
A Twitter rumor circulating Thursday had Floyd Mayweather Jr. wagering $3 million on Michigan. It’s an unlikely story. But if the boxer did place that bet, Colbert indicated it wasn’t made at a Cantor book.
“We’re seeing some Alabama action,” Colbert said. “I love Michigan in the game, and I think they can win straight up. But it’s moving away from what I think.”
It’s tempting to take two touchdowns with the Wolverines and their wildly athletic and unpredictable quarterback, Denard Robinson. It’s just as scary to try to beat Saban, who went 9-4 against the spread last season.
A first weekend full of storylines and betting lines has something for everyone. Three hours after the Notre Dame game kicks off overseas, Ohio State opens the Urban Meyer era and Penn State begins moving on without Joe Paterno.
How powerful is Southern California? Senior quarterback Matt Barkley goes in as the Heisman Trophy favorite, and his Trojans are 42-point favorites over Hawaii. Sharp money moved the line from 38½.
Vanderbilt was a 7-point underdog in a 17-13 home loss to South Carolina, and UNLV was a 9-point ‘dog in its opener against Minnesota. So the good news is that sometimes bad teams do cover.
■ CLOSING NUMBERS – I’ll take the points with Navy and Michigan and play four more games (home team in CAPS):
Boise State-MICHIGAN STATE (Under 46½); Western Michigan (+10) over ILLINOIS; TEXAS-EL PASO (+31) over Oklahoma; Troy (-6) over ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
