Coach K set to unleash dominant Duke superteam
If he wished, Mike Krzyzewski could have jumped to the NBA long ago. Instead, he chose to coach pro players on Team USA and recruit future pros to Duke.
The bad news for Coach K haters is he has assembled college basketball’s version of a superteam, with slightly less offensive talent than the Golden State Warriors.
The Blue Devils will feature five players who are potential first-round draft picks after this season, which is why they are 7-2 favorites to win the national championship in April.
“I have Duke as the favorite in almost every game,” Las Vegas handicapper Chuck Edel said.
Turn on the lights. The season opens Friday night with 66 games on the main betting board, and Duke starts as a 28-point favorite over Marist. There are far better matchups to watch, such as the doubleheader in Honolulu, where Michigan State is a 1½-point favorite over Arizona and Kansas is favored by 6½ over Indiana.
I write this annually, and it’s true: College basketball is the best option at the sports books for informed bettors. With so many teams to know and follow — most of the 351 Division I teams are on the board — oddsmakers can get caught guessing, especially in the first two months. The lines are generally not as sharp, and some numbers will move fast.
The odds on Duke would be closer to even money if not for the usual suspects (Kansas and Kentucky) and a couple of other legitimate contenders (Oregon and Villanova).
It’s not always easy to forecast winners and the polls sometimes mean little, as political pundits found out with Hillary Clinton. But, injuries aside, Krzyzewski will be coaching a powerhouse that should be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament in March, when casual bettors begin paying attention.
The Blue Devils bring back junior guard Grayson Allen, the team’s top scorer, along with Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Luke Kennard and Bishop Gorman High product Chase Jeter, a reserve sophomore forward. Krzyzewski added Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden to compile the nation’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class.
Duke could be an underdog in only a few spots — at Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia on the Atlantic Coast Conference road.
More bad news for Coach K haters in this neighborhood is the Blue Devils will be huge favorites over UNLV on Dec. 10 at T-Mobile Arena. On July 23, oddsmakers at the Westgate opened Duke minus-15½ over the Rebels. The line now is minus-17½, with 87 percent of the tickets and 69 percent of the money on the favorite.
“I would not be surprised if it creeps up closer to 20,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “Duke is clearly the No. 1 team. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rebels are in complete rebuilding mode. This team is the definition of rebuilding.
“I don’t know what to expect from UNLV, but I know the expectations are very low. It’s going to be a very young, inexperienced team. Talk about David versus Goliath, and that’s what you’re going to have on Dec. 10.”
UNLV fired coach Dave Rice in January and lost its top seven players. The Rebels, with a roster put together on the fly by new coach Marvin Menzies, open Friday as 6-point home favorites over South Alabama, which is picked eighth in the Sun Belt Conference.
Duke’s second five would be favored over UNLV at the Thomas & Mack Center.
“I think it’s the best team in the country, if they play defense,” said Edel (@chuckedel on Twitter). “Duke is loaded. Grayson Allen, the guy who trips everybody, as he goes, the team goes. Now we’ll see if Coach K screws it up or not.”
The most valuable resources for studying college basketball are the Blue Ribbon yearbook and Ken Pomeroy’s analytics website (Kenpom.com).
My top 10 under-the-radar teams (in no particular order) are Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, Cincinnati, Ohio, Oklahoma State, San Diego State and UNR.
The Big Ten is loaded at the top, and I rank Wisconsin as the team with the most potential.
But Duke is undoubtedly the team to beat, and that’s rarely going to happen. It’s the wrong year to invite the Blue Devils to Las Vegas.
CLOSING NUMBERS
Southern California is an 8½-point underdog at Washington in the most intriguing game on this week’s college football card. It’s tempting to take the points with the Trojans, but I’ll pass for now because the line might inflate to 10. At 30-27-1 for the season, here are four plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
INDIANA (+7) over Penn State; Mississippi-TEXAS A&M (Under 55); ARKANSAS (+7) over Louisiana State; New Mexico (+2½) over UTAH STATE.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow @mattyoumans247 on Twitter.