Chip Kelly picked right time for offensive wizardry
It was perfect timing. Chip Kelly, an innovator and magician at the college level, picked the right time and place to see if his offensive wizardry would work in the NFL.
With the league creating and enforcing rules to encourage more scoring, Kelly’s wide-open spread offense is ahead of the curve. The Philadelphia Eagles are an ideal fit, too, because Kelly arrived as coach just when the rest of the NFC East was falling apart.
The Eagles finished 10-6 to win the division last year, and they figure to run away from Dallas, the New York Giants and Washington again.
Disposing of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night might be a different story. It’s a cliche, but the game does mean more to the Colts, who need to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start.
Indianapolis is a 3-point home favorite, and the line should be a bit higher. One Las Vegas sports book moved to 3½ on Friday. The total of 54 indicates Luck and the Eagles will stage an entertaining shootout, and Kelly is cool with that.
Philadelphia averaged 27.6 points in Kelly’s first season, No. 4 in the league behind Denver, Chicago and New England. Kelly was fortunate to get near-perfect play from quarterback Nick Foles, who had 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions.
Foles’ turnover number was somewhat fraudulent, though, and he proved that last week by throwing an interception and losing two fumbles. Still, the threat posed by the Eagles’ offense is for real, especially because of explosive running backs LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles.
Both teams were involved in point-spread shenanigans in Week 1. Philadelphia, a 10½-point favorite, erased a 17-0 deficit to beat Jacksonville 34-17. Indianapolis, an 8½-point underdog, fell behind 24-0 in a 31-24 loss at Denver.
The Colts kept Peyton Manning under control in the second half; but they were conservative offensively early in the game, trying too hard to establish a limp running game instead of cutting Luck loose.
Luck completed 35 of 53 passes for 370 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback effort. The Colts would be wise to use the reverse approach — pass first to set up the run — and put the Eagles on their heels right away. Kelly’s offense can be magical, but his defense is mediocre.
In this spot, with a little line value at 3, I’ll back Indianapolis. A lot of Luck will be needed.
Four more plays for Week 2 (home team in CAPS):
■ Jaguars (+6) over REDSKINS: The Washington offense is out of whack, and there’s no reason to expect quarterback Robert Griffin III to click this week. Jacksonville has an improved defense, and Chad Henne played well against the Eagles, passing for 266 yards and two touchdowns. One week after scoring only six points, the Redskins are laying the same number. The Jaguars should take this to the wire.
■ Cowboys (+3½) over TITANS: Based on matchups and what we’ve seen, Tennessee is the right side. But NFL betting is odd, and it tends to pay to go opposite of the obvious. While the perception of the Titans is positive, everyone is crushing the Cowboys; maybe that’s a buy sign for Dallas. Trends support the Cowboys, who went 6-2 against the spread as ’dogs last year. Tennessee has covered three of its last 13 home games. If Tony Romo avoids turnovers — a big “if” — this can happen.
■ CHARGERS (+6) over Seahawks: San Diego is a Top 10 team in my ratings, and Philip Rivers has been a money quarterback as an underdog. Betting against Seattle at home is a bad idea. On the road, the Seahawks are not as fast and furious. After blowing their Monday opener, this is a good spot to roll the dice with the Chargers.
■ Chiefs (+13) over BRONCOS: A team that gets its butt kicked in Week 1 can be expected to come back fighting the next week. Kansas City was embarrassed, and coach Andy Reid will adjust. It helps that he has plenty of familiarity with the Denver offense, and Manning did not look as sharp as usual against the Colts. The Broncos won last year’s meetings by 10 and seven points.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.