Brady will push Patriots over the top
If not for a freak comeback two weeks ago, Russell Wilson would be remembered as a goat, the quarterback who threw four interceptions as the Seattle Seahawks met their demise.
But, of course, the freak comeback counts, and Wilson deserves credit for finishing it off. Now, instead of ordering a pizza and watching from the couch, he’s on the brink of becoming a two-time Super Bowl hero.
The line between success and failure in the NFL is fine, as is the line on today’s game in Glendale, Ariz. The New England Patriots are 1-point favorites over the Seahawks at most Las Vegas sports books. It’s pick’em at some spots.
It could be a classic. Every time Bill Belichick and Tom Brady get here, it’s close. The Patriots know all about fine lines, winning three Super Bowls by three points each and losing their past two by one play.
I prefer to avoid popular public sides, but I’ll side with New England and bet against Belichick and Brady dropping three in a row.
Wilson is the wild card. When he’s on the run, he can be dangerous. When a defense focuses too much manpower on stopping running back Marshawn Lynch, Wilson can break it down.
“I visualize success every day,” Wilson said last week. “I never visualize failure.”
Those are the words of a leader, and that’s why he’s successful. I have been trying to visualize Wilson failing, but he’s probably not going to flop in back-to-back games. Expect him to play at an elite level.
Still, the Patriots are good enough to overcome the Seahawks’ best shot. This is not the same dominant Seattle team that embarrassed the Denver Broncos last year in what I consider the worst of the 48 Super Bowls. It was 36-0 before Peyton Manning finally put his team on the board with a touchdown pass on the last play of the third quarter. It never was a game.
This will be a different story and hell of a game.
Wilson’s top wide receivers are Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse, not Percy Harvin and Golden Tate. The Seahawks’ best defensive backs, safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman, are at less than full strength because of injuries.
Before its freak comeback against Green Bay in the NFC title game, Seattle strung together a seven-game win streak. The streak created a lot of hype, but examine it closely and it was rather unimpressive.
The opposing quarterbacks were Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill and Cam Newton. Sanchez, Philadelphia’s backup, was the highest-rated passer of the group at 18th in the league. A hobbled Aaron Rodgers had the Packers up 12 points with three minutes to go and on the brink of the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks got only 13 points from their offense — zero in the first half — in an ugly 20-6 victory over St. Louis in Week 17.
Belichick, the sharpest coach in the NFL in terms of motivating players and devising defensive schemes, is not going to be fooled. He will have a plan to control Lynch and contain Wilson to the pocket as much as possible. Seattle’s pedestrian wideouts are not going to win many one-on-one battles.
Brady has a tight end, Rob Gronkowski, who can beat almost any coverage. Brady has running backs who can pound out tough yards. The Patriots are not as physical as the Seahawks, but they are not as finesse as figure skaters, either.
From early October through mid-December, New England went 10-1 with a 26-21 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 30, when Rodgers was on two good legs. Brady threw two touchdown passes and no interceptions against the same physical NFC defense that made Wilson look bad two weeks ago.
I am not underestimating Wilson, who’s a winner, and do respect the Seattle side of the debate and the metrics supporting it.
Predictionmachine.com ran 50,000 simulations of the Super Bowl XLIX matchup, and the Seahawks won 57.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 23-20.
Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points? (Yes plus-330). That’s one of about 10 propositions I bet, along with Brady over 23½ completions, Lynch over 82½ rushing yards, no score in the first 6½ minutes of the game, and more points scored in the second half than the first.
There are respected wiseguys on both sides. This is not a classic case of public squares piling on one side and sharps taking the other. That was the case last year, when I was on the Seahawks. But this will be different.
Unlike Manning, who might be ordering a pizza and watching from the couch, Brady thrives in the postseason. I visualize Brady succeeding and the Patriots winning 23-20.
Season: 49-34-2 against the spread
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.