Bettors take look at UNLV

It is expected to be sunny and warm here today, but if there is a dark cloud in the valley, it’s probably following Bobby Hauck. Bad things sometimes happen to good people, and the UNLV football coach falls into that category at the moment.

Losing to Northern Arizona is about as bad as it gets, but the Rebels have not yet hit rock bottom.

"It’s a punch in the stomach they might not get up from, and it’s hard for me to see them winning two games," said Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller, who’s typically an optimist.

Still, there are three reasons for UNLV to feel good. One, Tim Cornett is a talented and tough running back. Two, there are 1.3 billion people in China who don’t care the Rebels lost to the Lumberjacks. Three, some sharp bettors obviously see Washington State as a shaky favorite in tonight’s game.

On June 11, long before UNLV was upset 17-14 by Northern Arizona, Miller opened lines on several of the season’s key games and made the Cougars 17½-point favorites over the Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Washington State had a lot to be optimistic about, with Mike Leach taking over as coach and installing his aerial assault offense. Leach led Texas Tech to 10 bowls in as many seasons. His teams always were good and entertaining.

UNLV has been bad and boring for too long.

But Leach’s magic is not working as quickly as most anticipated. The Cougars were whipped 30-6 by Brigham Young in their opener before barely escaping against Eastern Washington.

So, when the betting lines opened Sunday night, Washington State’s stock had dropped to the point it was an 11½-point favorite over UNLV. The number has dipped to 8 and 8½, and you have to wonder why.

Cougars senior quarterback Jeff Tuel might not play because of a knee injury, which is one possible reason. But his backup, sophomore Connor Halliday, passed for 494 yards in a win over Arizona State last season, so he’s not chopped liver.

In my eyes, an 8-point line appears cheap for Washington State, and that might prove to be true. But if there is a fourth reason for the Rebels to feel good, it’s the home underdog role.

"I think the Rebels might actually be worth a look plus the points," The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said. "That would be the quintessential Hauck pattern, rising for a good effort as a home underdog, a role in which he is 8-2 since arriving two years ago."

The Cougars won last year’s meeting 59-7, and that was before Leach, so the Golden Nugget’s opening line of 17½ sure seemed reasonable.

"I wasn’t expecting a whole lot from the Rebels," Miller said. "But we thought Washington State would be a lot better, too. If the Rebels can’t beat that team with a 14-point lead, how can you expect them to win any game?"

Of course, "that team" was Northern Arizona, a team off a 57-point loss at Arizona State and playing its backup quarterback.

Miller opened UNLV’s regular-season win total for 13 games at 2½, and sharps were paying a minus-200 price to bet it over the total, making a foolish assumption the Lumberjacks were patsies.

"If the Rebels exit this home stand at 0-4, we have to start wondering where a win might come from as the schedule gets even tougher," Marshall said. "After all of the recent fiascos, they cannot assume success against any team, even New Mexico. I hope we don’t have to start researching if a college team ever has finished 0-13."

I asked Miller and his top college football oddsmaker, Aaron Kessler, to project the point spreads for UNLV’s final 10 games, and they made the Rebels big ‘dogs in nine games and favorites in one – by 3 points over visiting New Mexico on Nov. 3.

"Maybe they can beat New Mexico," Miller said. "But the Rebels might be so deflated by then, who knows?"

Maybe UNLV can stay within 8 points of Washington State. Bet it at your own risk.

The Rebels have not hit rock bottom, but the oddsmakers say they are not far away.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS – It’s a tough college card this week, so here are six mostly conservative plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Wake Forest (+28) over FLORIDA STATE; SOUTHERN METHODIST (+12½) over Texas A&M; Brigham Young (-3½) over UTAH; Bowling Green (+3½) over TOLEDO; WISCONSIN (-13½) over Utah State; Notre Dame (+6) over MICHIGAN STATE.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.