Bettors now look silly for backing Kelly, Eagles before season

One week, he’s better off going back to college. The next week, he beats Bill Belichick.

This is life under the microscope in the NFL. Overreactions are a weekly routine, and no team elicited more false excitement over the summer than the Eagles. Kelly made major changes in the offseason, and Philadelphia’s offense was absolutely explosive in the preseason. Admirers were looking to ride the wave.

“During the preseason, there was a lot of optimism and support for the Eagles, including myself,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “It just looked like that offense was going to roll.”

The Eagles’ regular-season win total closed at 10, with a price tag of minus-130 attached to the over. It seemed Philadelphia could not fail. The offense was clicking behind new quarterback Sam Bradford.

“Anytime you see huge personnel changes such as Kelly made in Philadelphia, especially ones that seem off the grid, it raises questions about continuity and the ability to be successful in the near future,” said handicapper Jim Kruger of VegasSportsAuthority.com. “It takes time for a team to mold together and have good chemistry.”

The betting public was swept out in the riptide. Even after upsetting New England, the Eagles are 5-7 going into Week 14 and will stay under their posted win total.

“We’re going to win this one. Most of the action came in on the Eagles,” Kornegay said. “There were a lot of dropped passes and issues on the offensive line. Bradford has taken a lot of criticism, but it’s not all his fault.”

I did not wager on the Eagles’ win total, but I did get fooled by Kelly and this Philadelphia team that turned out to be almost as phony as Bill Cosby. The offense is nothing special, and Kelly is not reinventing NFL playbooks. Whether he’s the right fit or not, Bradford has taken too much blame. DeMarco Murray definitely was the wrong running back to be featured in Kelly’s system.

As the season hits the stretch run, here’s a look at the win-total picture:

Overachievers

Raise your hand if you were dead wrong about Carolina? My hand is raised with thousands of others. The Panthers closed at 8½ with the under at minus-170. Nobody expected this formula: Cam Newton plus an opportunistic defense equals 12-0.

“Considering Newton has offensive weapons that wouldn’t scare an XFL defense, you have to be quite surprised with the Panthers’ season, especially considering their history of starting slowly,” Kruger said.

Arizona (11-2) has surpassed its win total of 8½. Minnesota (8-5) was a popular bet to go over, and its win total closed at 8 with the over at minus-150.

In the AFC, Cincinnati (10-2, 8½) is already over, with Denver (10-2, 10) and New England (10-2, 10½) in need of just one more win.

“We always need the Patriots under, so we’ll probably lose that one,” Kornegay said. “There were different opinions on the Broncos. We need them under, but that’s not a significant decision for us. We took sharp money under, and I think they were betting against Peyton Manning because he looked so bad at the end of last season.”

Underachievers

The list of teams with no shot to go over their closing win totals includes Indianapolis (6-6, 10½), Dallas (4-8, 9½), Baltimore (4-8, 9), Detroit (4-8, 8½), New Orleans (4-8, 8½), San Diego (3-9, 8) and Cleveland (2-10, 6½).

The Ravens have lost seven games by six points or fewer. The Saints’ decline should not come as a big surprise. The Chargers played most of the season with no home-field advantage, as fans stayed away in anger over the team’s expected move to Los Angeles. Betting on the Browns to have a good year is seldom a wise idea.

The Cowboys opened 2-0 before a broken collarbone sidelined Tony Romo, and injuries are unpredictable wild cards in futures wagers.

“Dallas losing Romo has proven your season can go down in flames without a capable second-string quarterback,” Kruger said.

To be determined

In mid-October, Kansas City was 1-5, star running back Jamaal Charles was out with a season-ending injury and the situation seemed hopeless. Stunningly, the Chiefs have won and covered six straight to close in on their win total of 8½.

“The Chiefs have a favorable schedule the next four weeks, so they should make it,” Kornegay said.

Kansas City has home games remaining against San Diego, Cleveland and Oakland in addition to a game at Baltimore.

“While it doesn’t qualify as a season-win surprise, it is a surprise to see Kansas City become a playoff contender after a poor start and the loss of Charles, their No. 1 offensive weapon,” Kruger said. “The Chiefs are on a 6-0 streak and showing one of the strongest surges of any team.”

While the New York Jets (7-5, 7½) and Tampa Bay (6-6, 6) are near locks to go over their win totals, San Francisco (4-8, 6½) and St. Louis (4-8, 7½) are long shots.

Buffalo (6-6, 8½) needs to win a pick’em game at Philadelphia on Sunday before facing Washington, Dallas and the Jets.

“We have to keep the Bills under 8½,” Kornegay said. “We’re rooting for the Jaguars to win two more games. We need the Bears to get to seven wins.”

Bettors were pessimistic about Chicago (5-7, 6½) and Jacksonville (4-8, 5½), and those decisions could be photo finishes. Oakland (5-7, 5½) will be an underdog in three of its final four games, but the Raiders will be favorites over the Chargers on Dec. 24.

“With four weeks to go, a lot of things can happen,” Kornegay said. “It seems like everything is up in the air right now.”

Seattle (7-5, 11) needs to run the table to push. Pittsburgh (7-5, 8½), Houston (6-6, 8½) and the New York Giants (5-7, 8) have serious work to do to go over. The Steelers play three of their final four on the road and host the Broncos.

Green Bay (8-4, 11) might be the most interesting case. The Packers are favored over the Cowboys on Sunday and will be favorites at Oakland in Week 15, but they travel to Arizona before hosting the Vikings in Week 17.

Kornegay said the Westgate took heavy action on Green Bay to go over its win total, but the book also has liability on Minnesota to win the NFC North.

“We need the Packers to win two more games — but no more than two — and still win the division,” he said.

Because of the Hail Mary launched by Aaron Rodgers in Detroit, some big betting decisions remain up in the air.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247

 

NFL REGULAR-SEASON WIN TOTALS

Team Sept. 7 Today

Green Bay Packers 11 8-4

Seattle Seahawks 11 7-5

Indianapolis Colts 10.5 6-6

New England Patriots 10.5 10-2

Denver Broncos 10 10-2

Philadelphia Eagles 10 5-7

Dallas Cowboys 9.5 4-8

Baltimore Ravens 9 4-8

Miami Dolphins 9 5-7

Arizona Cardinals 8.5 10-2

Atlanta Falcons 8.5 6-6

Buffalo Bills 8.5 6-6

Carolina Panthers 8.5 12-0

Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 10-2

Detroit Lions 8.5 4-8

Houston Texans 8.5 6-6

Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 7-5

New Orleans Saints 8.5 4-8

Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 7-5

Minnesota Vikings 8 8-4

New York Giants 8 5-7

San Diego Chargers 8 3-9

New York Jets 7.5 7-5

St. Louis Rams 7.5 4-8

Chicago Bears 6.5 5-7

Cleveland Browns 6.5 2-10

San Francisco 49ers 6.5 4-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 6-6

Washington Redskins 6 5-7

Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5 4-8

Oakland Raiders 5.5 5-7

Tennessee Titans 5.5 3-9

Closing lines from the Westgate Las Vegas.