Bears are not as sorry as some believe

The Bears are not really junkyard ‘dogs, a team of scrap-heap talent surrounding a schizophrenic quarterback. It seems that way, though, based on how most bettors are attacking the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

An avalanche of cash will be riding on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, who are 3½-point favorites over the Bears. It’s no surprise, either.

The Packers hit the road in the playoffs and knocked out Michael Vick and Matt Ryan. The Bears did next to nothing, essentially receiving a bye into this game by beating one patsy.

Green Bay’s defense has been great, and Rodgers is the postseason’s hottest quarterback, completing 77.8 percent of his passes for 546 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions for a rating of 134.5.

“Probably about 75 percent of the tickets are on the Packers. There’s no straight money on the Bears,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books.

The tickets are straight bets, parlays, teasers and money-line wagers, and so far it’s one-way action on Green Bay.

“The Packers are coming off a huge last five games, and they are surely everybody’s favorite right now,” Vaccaro said. “The betting public is falling in love with them for the right reasons.

“There’s a difference in falling in love with teams and blowing your cash. But they are falling in love at the right time with a team that has gotten the cheese. There’s an absolute love affair going on right now with the Packers. It takes a couple ‘Ls’ for the love affair to become a divorce.”

Vaccaro said he knows a few wiseguys in Las Vegas who love the Bears. Those wiseguys, he said, think the line is a little out of whack. But they could be waiting to get plus-4.

There are wiseguys who also love the Packers, and they took minus-2 when that number opened offshore or minus-3 when Lucky’s and other Las Vegas books opened it a point higher.

The most important Packers-Bears game of my lifetime will mean a lot to the books. The game is shaping up as a classic case of the betting public on the favorite and the bookmakers on the junkyard ‘dog.

“Everybody is on the Packers. When everybody is on one side, you know that’s a bad sign,” said Mike Scalleat, a longtime Las Vegas handicapper. “Usually in the end, the books win.”

That’s not the lone reason Scalleat is siding with the Bears. He likes Hester and Peppers, and he thinks the Chicago defense can curtail Rodgers on a cold day by the lakefront at Soldier Field.

It will be a monumental test for Jay Cutler, who throws the passes for the Bears when running back Matt Forte is not. (The good news is the Bears have already used the worst play in their playbook, and they won’t use Forte as a quarterback again this week.)

“I really like that Cutler is not making the turnovers and he’s playing smarter,” Scalleat said. “The Chicago defense is better than people think. You know the Bears players read the papers, and they know they won the division and they’re a home ‘dog.

“At the beginning of the year, we thought the Bears were a 3-0 farce. But the Bears have got a shot. I think they are going to beat the Packers.”

Because of the weather, sloppy field and the idea that the offenses might shun high-risk plays and commit to running the ball, Scalleat said he’s “not looking for an explosive game” and will bet the total under 43½.

Scalleat, a documented 31-17 on his NFL plays this season, also prefers the Pittsburgh Steelers as 3½-point favorites over the New York Jets in the AFC title game.

The Jets upset the Steelers 22-17 in Week 15, but Pittsburgh was without safety Troy Polamalu, and the defense with Polamalu is the difference between riding a Harley and driving a Camry.

After kicking aside Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts and whipping Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, the Jets should be “emotionally drained,” Scalleat said.

“Whatever happens in the second game won’t be pretty if the Packers cover,” Vaccaro said. “It’s not the worst spot to be in needing a home ‘dog at more than a field goal to win the money for you. I don’t mind being in this spot.

“The least glamorous team out of these four would be the Bears.”

President Barack Obama is predicting his hometown Bears will win. But Obama is not part of the betting public.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.