Backing Cubs might finally pay off
When hired as manager, Joe Maddon was considered the ideal kindergarten cop for the Chicago Cubs. Expectations were realistic for his first year. The postseason was only a possibility. But it’s October, and already those kids are all grown up.
Maybe the Cubs still are a year or two away from a World Series, but this is no time to talk about waiting until next year.
The baseball playoffs are a lot more than a footnote to football at Las Vegas sports books this month for two reasons — the field is wide open, and the Cubs are serious players in the field.
“The Cubs are so popular, their drought has been so long, and so many fans want to back them and want to see them win,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “But they are a really good team, a young team that’s maybe a year or two ahead of where most people thought they would be now.
“I don’t think they have nerves right now. The Cubs seem more relaxed in the big games and are kind of playing with house money it appears.”
The Cubs are so popular, they are favored in a National League division series against the St. Louis Cardinals, who won 100 games and posted the best record in baseball.
The Cubs are so popular, they drove a mind-boggling wagering handle for a wild-card game against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The Cubs-Pirates elimination game drew more action than all but maybe two NFL games will attract this weekend, said William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich.
“It’s a massive handle,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s one of the biggest-bet baseball games I’ve seen in my 29 years in the business.”
About 60 percent of the action was on the Cubs, who won 4-0 with another masterpiece by right-hander Jake Arrieta. When hired, Maddon expected lefty Jon Lester to be his ace. Arrieta, a 22-game winner in the regular season, has been more dominant the past two months than Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
“Arrieta was not even an All-Star,” Esposito said. “Think about that.”
Two years ago, the Cubs traded Scott Feldman, a box of T-shirts and a billy goat to be named later to Baltimore to steal Arrieta. The Cubs have made several shrewd deals and smart draft picks, one pick being power-hitting Kris Bryant of Las Vegas.
The Cubs are getting 5-1 odds to win the World Series, 9-4 odds to win the NL, and they are minus-115 favorites in a best-of-5 series against the Cardinals. Lester opposes John Lackey in today’s Game 1, which is lined as a pick’em at minus-105.
It’s a banged-up, overachieving Cardinals team, one that has overcome injuries to ace Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina. Wainwright has returned as a reliever, and Molina is hoping to play with a splint on his left thumb.
The Cubs are favored to advance partly because bookmakers know fans will be betting with their hearts. But the reality is Arrieta might start just one time, that being in Game 3 at Wrigley Field on Monday.
“I still think St. Louis should be a slight favorite,” Esposito said. “Arrieta being able to pitch only once during the series definitely would favor the Cardinals. I think the Cardinals are the better team, but they have injuries. The Cubs are playing so well right now, and they are not a team that limped into the playoffs.”
In the spring, oddsmakers set the Cubs’ regular-season win total at 82½. Maddon guided a young team to 97 wins, third-most in the majors and more than any team in the American League. Toronto was the World Series favorite at 3-1 odds before the Blue Jays were upset by Texas in their series opener Thursday.
The New York Yankees were one-and-done, shut out in a wild-card playoff same as the 98-win Pirates.
“It’s going to be a fun postseason,” said Esposito, a cautiously optimistic Cubs fan.
In the 1989 movie “Back to the Future Part II,” the Cubs won the 2015 World Series. Think about the irony of that. The Cubs are the most popular team on the futures board, and they represent the highest liability for Las Vegas books.
After years and years of collecting on the Cubs, will bookmakers finally be forced to pay off?
FANTASY CONTROVERSY — It has been a bad week for the fantasy sports industry, with accusations of insider trading and calls for strict regulations of websites such as DraftKings and FanDuel. Bad beats are a common headache in sports betting. Here’s a bad-beat story that has gone mostly untold from the world of fantasy football.
In the DraftKings “$7M Millionaire Maker” contest last week in the NFL, the winner compiled 200.02 points and collected the $1.2 million top prize. But the winner actually should have finished fourth, and the second-place finisher — who compiled 199.44 points and collected $500,000 — deserved to win.
The winner had the Seattle defense, and DraftKings awarded two points for a fumble recovery when Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright batted a loose ball out of the end zone for a touchback late in the game. The officials misjudged the play — Detroit should have retained possession at the 1-yard line — and it should not have been recorded as a fumble recovery.
That nightmare bad beat cost a fantasy player $700,000. And that story was not even mentioned as part of this week’s controversy.
CLOSING NUMBERS — The college football plays in this spot went 5-0 last week, running my season record to 18-6-1. Don’t count on another perfect day, but here are six underdog plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
PURDUE (+3½) over Minnesota; TENNESSEE (+3) over Georgia; Navy (+14½) over NOTRE DAME; Miami (+9) over FLORIDA STATE; Georgia Tech (+7) over CLEMSON; San Diego State (+2½) over HAWAII.
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.