Alabama’s Nick Saban looms large to bettors
In general, the betting public gets mocked for playing too many favorites. More often than not, the wiseguys get credit for taking points with underdogs. But if those are the rules, Alabama football coach Nick Saban has become an exception.
Betting against Saban is seldom a shrewd move, unless he’s in a joke-telling contest or competing in the high jump.
“Alabama always gets money from the public, and that’s a certainty,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said.
The public deserves some credit for rolling with the Crimson Tide — even if it’s an obvious move — and it’s happening again this week. Top-ranked Alabama is a 12½- to 13-point favorite over Tennessee on Saturday in what could be a case of point-spread inflation. On the surface, the sight of the No. 9 Volunteers as double-digit home ’dogs appears absurd.
But this is Saban, and the rules are different. Alabama has won by double digits in 34 of its past 39 victories. Saban has slayed Tennessee nine straight times.
The Volunteers have spent the season dealing with injuries and playing with fire — coming back from significant deficits to defeat Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, Georgia and Florida — and their coach, Butch Jones, is far inferior to Saban in all areas aside from recruiting.
“Tennessee is going to have one of those weeks when they get behind and there’s not going to be a comeback,” Salmons said.
In fact, the Volunteers are coming off a week in which they fell way behind, caught up and lost in overtime, 45-38 at Texas A&M. The good news for Tennessee is its leading rusher, Jalen Hurd, is expected to return against the Crimson Tide after a one-game injury absence.
I generally look to play underdogs, especially quality home ’dogs. The Volunteers fit the profile because of their veteran quarterback, Joshua Dobbs, and sturdy defense.
But, again, this is Saban, and I generally bet on him or pass. The line has inflated since Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello opened it at 10 on Sunday. Some sharps are with the public on the Alabama side, but by kickoff, probably only the most courageous sharps will be on the Tennessee side.
Without a doubt, Saban is the top coach in college. Ohio State’s Urban Meyer ranks No. 2, and Meyer is involved in the second-biggest game of the week. The Buckeyes are 10½- to 11-point favorites at Wisconsin.
The Badgers are home ’dogs for the first time since 2010, so it’s another tempting spot to take the points. Still, Meyer is 19-0 on the regular-season road in his fifth year with the Buckeyes, and he blasted Oklahoma in Norman in September.
“I think it’s one of those games Ohio State is going to win somewhere between seven and 14 points,” Salmons said. “Wisconsin is such a slow, methodical team. It’s a shortened game, so points are worth much more in a game like that.”
It’s just a lot tougher to take the points with Saban and Meyer on the other side.
The importance of coaching at the college level never has been more obvious.
Chris Petersen has Washington at 6-0 after back-to-back six-loss seasons. Mike MacIntyre has Colorado at 4-2 (6-0 against the spread) two years after the Buffaloes went 2-10. Tom Herman is a rising star at Houston, and Bobby Petrino has revived his career at Louisville.
The college game is played at a breakneck pace now, too. In the most alarming score last week, Washington put a 70-21 whipping on Oregon, a 10½-point home underdog. The Ducks’ drop-off from Chip Kelly, who is becoming a bust in the NFL, to Mark Helfrich is about to cost Helfrich his job.
“Helfrich is done,” Salmons said. “It’s kind of shocking how bad Oregon has fallen off the map.”
Saban deserves credit for changing with the game. He shed his conservative nature and adapted a more wide-open offense to stay ahead of the curve.
“There are so many good offensive teams,” Salmons said. “Even Alabama plays fast now.”
Some might say it’s a Napoleon complex that makes the 5-foot-6-inch Saban so successful. He’s aggressive, angry, domineering and never loses the chip on his shoulder. Napoleon Bonaparte, for the record, was reported to be either 5-6 or 5-7.
Saban certainly looms large at the betting window, where there’s always a fear factor in going against him.
CLOSING NUMBERS
“You see so many lucky winners and bad-luck losers,” Salmons said, as we discussed last week’s results. I was on the bad-luck side of Kansas State and Tennessee losers.
At 18-15-1 for the season, here are six plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
MARYLAND (-6) over Minnesota; Kansas State (+14) over OKLAHOMA; INDIANA (+3½) over Nebraska; NOTRE DAME (-3) over Stanford; WASHINGTON STATE (-7) over Ucla; Unlv (+8½) over HAWAII.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247