Raiders own clear path to contending for playoff berth

There were various reports this week that if games are lost to COVID-19, the NFL competition committee wants to hold a 16-team playoff this season. That would mean four division winners and four wild-card spots in each conference.

Which means football would be getting dangerously close to the come-one, come-all brand of playoff hockey, although it’s a good bet the Dallas Stars could beat the Cowboys right now.

I’m sure those NFL teams on the playoff bubble come January would welcome such expansion, the Raiders included.

Which is likely where Las Vegas will find itself.

Yeah, I know. Here comes all sorts of conjecture. But isn’t that what makes it so fun?

A clear path

Already, the playoffs will include an extra wild-card berth in each conference. Seven teams per side. So until owners (or television executives) decide eight is great, we will proceed as if the number is seven.

And in keeping with the week’s election cycle, there is a clear path for the Raiders to be among those contending for a spot. It won’t take us days to explain, either.

Warning: We’re going to assume a lot.

Like, the Chiefs will win the AFC West.

Like, the first wild-card team will come from the AFC North (Ravens). Like, the Raiders need to finish at least 9-7 to have any chance at a seventh seed.

History pretty much demands such. Seven times in the last 10 years, the team that finished seventh in the AFC and one spot out of the playoffs was 9-6-1 or 9-7. So if the Raiders need a minimum of nine wins to be in the conversation, here’s one avenue that seems plausible.

1 — Win as expected

(Three winnable home games, must win two).

Denver (Nov. 15); Chargers (Dec. 17); Miami (Dec. 27).

The combined record of the three is 9-12. The Raiders beat Denver and Los Angeles at home last season, albeit in Oakland and in front of fans. A win against the Dolphins could certainly help when it comes to potential tiebreaker situations, much as beating Cleveland did last week.

2 — Win on the road

(Four road games, must win two).

Chargers (Nov. 8); Atlanta (Nov. 29); Jets (Dec. 6); Denver (Jan. 3).

Not easy. You remember what happened with New York last season, right? Jets 34-3. And while the Falcons are just 2-6, they average north of 26 points. And who knows what the weather will be like in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and Denver on the above dates.

3 — Win at home

(Two difficult home games, must win one).

Kansas City (Nov. 22); Indianapolis (Dec. 13).

In this particular scenario, it would be better to defeat the Colts than the Chiefs. You know, the whole tiebreaker angle. That, and beating Patrick Mahomes twice in just over a month would be tougher than convincing Jon Gruden his team has definitely not crushed the virus.

There you have it. That gets the Raiders to nine wins. Ten would make a world of difference. In the last decade, only the Jets (10-6) in 2015 missed out as a wild card with double-digit wins.

Playoff percentages

An interesting point: Football Outsiders, the website that tracks and assigns each team a percentage of chance to make the playoffs, has the Raiders at 34.7 through seven games, which would make them the third and final wild-card entrant.

But the Browns are in the second wild-card spot at 46.1 percent. The team the Raiders just beat for a head-to-head edge.

Another point from the Cleveland win: Should the Raiders indeed qualify as a wild card, odds at this point heavily favor them being sent to a potentially frigid site. Pittsburgh. Kansas City. Buffalo.

So when you consider how well the Raiders ran the ball last week, it should afford the them some level of confidence about winning in awful conditions.

“If they were completely healthy with their offensive linemen, I would hate to face the Raiders in the playoffs, especially outdoors in bad weather,” said Tom Krasovic, longtime NFL columnist for the San Diego Union-Tribune. “They can hammer you. Gruden built this team through that line. Their offense could score 30 in a playoff game. You just don’t know what their defense would then give up.”

Either way, getting to nine wins is no walkover. Local books have made the Raiders just a 4-point favorite next week against 3-4 Denver, which has just a 9.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Which means each of nine (or more) will be earned.

Unless the league adds yet another wild-card team to each conference. Then, not only will the Raiders’ chances of making the playoffs increase significantly, but the Stars might qualify out of the NFC East.

Ed Graney is a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing and can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on Twitter.