4 games into season, playoff path still there for Raiders

The Raiders can absolutely make the NFL playoffs this season. Yes, I watched the losses to New England and Buffalo. I know the identity of the next two opponents. No, I haven’t been sneaking into the wife’s red wine supply. I don’t have a death wish.

Stay with me: It’s still way early. Even though PlayoffStatus.com affords Las Vegas a 42 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason, we know that what looks somewhat promising can turn ugly real fast (see 6-4 to 7-9 last year). Even in a season such as this, when an extra wild-card berth has been added to each conference.

But for now, at least one form of analytics believes there is opportunity.

With the Raiders, you might have thought its chances a minus-42 percent after forgettable showings against the Patriots and Bills. But what was a reasonable assumption about the Raiders and playoffs before the season kicked off hasn’t varied for the most part.

Schedule softens

First, the good. The schedule following a game at Kansas City on Sunday and then home against the Buccaneers on Oct. 25 appears softer than first imagined. You might have been one of those who said a 2-4 (maybe 1-5?) start from the Raiders wouldn’t totally eliminate them from playoff contention.

That’s how difficult the six-game stretch to begin the season appeared to be and how favorable most of the final 10 opportunities seemed.

Those 10 games are against teams that are a combined 12-16 after four weeks. Take away what will be a second game against the Chiefs, and things get inviting.

The Jets have a 3 percent of making the playoffs. That’s not probability. It’s fact. They stink. The Falcons at 0-4 have a 4 percent chance. The Broncos at 1-3 are at 7.6 percent. The Dolphins at 1-3 have a 12.3 percent chance

Are you sensing a pattern here with some of those teams?

“I think there’s a lot of teams with the way this whole world is right now that are taking things week-by week,” Raiders coach Jon Gruden said. “We’ve been in these games. We’re competing hard. We have a long ways to go.”

Now, some bad: While it’s true the number of seemingly winnable games increases substantially after Tampa Bay (and that’s not suggesting the Buccaneers are world-beaters), Las Vegas has found its defense nowhere near as improved as advertised.

Which means unless something changes dramatically — like, I don’t know, actually winnig the turnover battle every now and then — those final 10 games are going to be much tougher in spots than they probably should be.

The Raiders have a good enough offense. It might be overly conservative in spots and Gruden might still be living in 2002 when not embracing key modern-day analytics as much as he should. But Las Vegas will move the ball enough not to deny it the chance at a playoff spot. The other side of the ball could, though.

No defense, man

The changes Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock made to improve a defense that has ranked among the league’s worst in recent seasons have had the opposite effect thus far.

Through four games, Las Vegas is 31st or 32nd in all five major defensive categories. Names like Cory Littleton and Carl Nassib and Nick Kwiatkoski and Maliek Collins and Jeff Heath. All brought in by management. All not performing to a high enough level. You also have injured rookies and struggling second-year players.

You can take the easy way out and blame defensive coordinator Paul Guenther for everything — he obviously can’t totally escape blame — but he’s also coaching the hand Gruden and Mayock gave him. This isn’t a one-person failure so far.

“I like where we are as a team,” Gruden said. “We’ve played one of the toughest schedules in football … We will continue to work hard to get where we want to be.”

That’s the playoffs. It’s way early. Even so, at 2-2, the path is there. Las Vegas still has the schedule on its side down the stretch. Just stop someone. My goodness, anyone.

Ed Graney is a Sigma Delta Chi Award winner for sports column writing and can be reached at egraney@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4618. He can be heard on “The Press Box,” ESPN Radio 100.9 FM and 1100 AM, from 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday. Follow @edgraney on Twitter.