Oddsmakers come to consensus
As the final eight take to the field today and Sunday for the NFL divisional playoffs, we check in with the team of oddsmakers that developed the suggested opening lines from the offices of Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Pick your favorite or your poison. Just like bettors, oddsmakers’ opinions can differ.
Jason Been, Dan O’Brien, Mike Seba, Sean Van Patten and Kenny White make up the LVSC group that gets the fun started.
As we preview the four games to be played in the next two days, let’s go inside the process of creating the send-out number. On display will be the common and dissenting opinions that eventually formulate the suggested opener, in addition to comments for each game.
My job is easy this week. The oddsmakers speak for themselves:
TODAY’S GAMES
Seattle at Green Bay
LVSC send-out: Green Bay minus-7, total 401/2.
Current consensus: Green Bay minus-71/2, total 43.
The oddsmakers: Been (-7, 44), Seba (-71/2, 40), O’Brien (-6, 40), Van Patten (-7, 43), White (-7, 44).
Seba’s analysis: “I made it Packers minus-7 from my power ratings and the inflation of the team with the bye. I added the hook because Green Bay is a public team. I think the Seahawks can keep it close because coach Mike Holmgren knows what it takes to win in that environment, and his team’s core group has big-game experience.”
O’Brien’s analysis: “We have the luxury of expressing an opinion as part of a group. I know I didn’t make a bookable number, but tried to influence the team to shade the number lower. Seattle is absolutely live in this spot, in my opinion.”
Jacksonville at New England
LVSC send-out: New England minus-111/2, total 51.
Current consensus: New England minus-131/2, total 491/2.
The oddsmakers: Been (-111/2, 49), Seba (-13, 47), O’Brien (-11, 511/2), Van Patten (-12, 45), White (-101/2, 52).
Seba’s analysis: “My number was lower, with anticipation of inclement weather. In perfect conditions, I would have made it 14 or 141/2. The Jaguars are hot, a fact that can’t be dismissed.”
White’s analysis: “Tough for me to make a playoff number that high and factor in how the Jaguars have been playing. It’s a new season, with all the pressure squarely on New England’s shoulders. Jacksonville has nothing to lose.”
SUNDAY’S GAMES
San Diego at Indianapolis
LVSC send-out: Indianapolis minus-71/2, total 471/2.
Current consensus: Indianapolis minus-9, total 451/2.
The oddsmakers: Been (-7, 48), Seba (-71/2, 471/2), O’Brien (-81/2, 47), Van Patten (-6, 46), White (-71/2, 44).
Van Patten’s analysis: “The Chargers are playing well at the right time. LaDainian Tomlinson has become the focal point of the offense again. Earlier this season, they kind of got away from L.T., but common sense has taken over.”
O’Brien’s analysis: “If there’s a blowout this weekend, this may be it. The Colts are healthier than they’ve been all season, and it’s almost forgotten that they are the defending champions and hosting at one of the toughest venues in the league.”
New York Giants at Dallas
LVSC send-out: Dallas minus-81/2, total 48.
Current consensus: Dallas minus-71/2, total 461/2.
The oddsmakers: Been (-9, 471/2), Seba (-8, 49), O’Brien (-91/2, 50), Van Patten (-71/2, 471/2), White (-81/2, 43).
White’s analysis: “I base my lower total on the fact that Giants coach Tom Coughlin will remain conservative with Eli Manning. Cowboys coach Wade Phillips, a former defensive coordinator, also will simplify things in the postseason. Plus, the questions surrounding Terrell Owens’ ankle impacted my number.”
Been’s analysis: “Personally, I think the game should be 6 or 61/2, but to balance action and give our clients the best number that would split action, I thought the market number was the Cowboys around a 9-point favorite. If Manning protects the ball, the Giants can win outright.”
Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Listen to the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 4 p.m. on KENO-AM (1460).