Longshots worth a look at Daytona

He believes if there is a time to bet Danica Patrick to win a NASCAR Sprint Cup race, this is one of those few occasions.

She has performed well in restrictor-plate races, and today’s Daytona 500 is one of those events. Patrick, who has yet to win a Cup race, finished eighth in the 500 two years ago as a rookie after starting as the pole sitter.

“I will absolutely take a shot with Danica Patrick,” said Blessing, a handicapper and radio host for Sportsbookradio.com. “I think she can win at Talladega and Daytona. In a restrictor-plate race, she can go with the best of them.”

Later, he acknowledged the grief that would come his way with such a statement, saying, “I’ll get skewered.”

The two races at Daytona Beach, Fla., and the two at Talladega, Ala., use restrictor plates to slow the cars, which makes the racing wide open.

That’s why Blessing likes the idea of betting on a driver such as Patrick (60-1), while balancing out his strategy with wagers on Carl Edwards (12-1) and Kasey Kahne (25-1).

Micah Roberts, a handicapper for “The Linemakers” at SportingNews.com, said as many as 35 drivers have a legitimate chance to win today compared to 14 or 15 in a typical NASCAR race.

He said an argument could be made to lay off the long shots and focus more on the drivers with the better history because their odds will be higher than at most NASCAR races. Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin could attract prices, perhaps 12-1 or 14-1 depending on the sports book, that might not be available in two weeks for the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Kenseth was bet at 15-2 last year in Las Vegas and Hamlin was 10-1.

“A less certain pool of drivers can win (Daytona),” Roberts said. “Jimmie Johnson has been 20th or worse seven of 10 times at the Daytona races. In Las Vegas, he’s a machine who runs in the top five. But at Daytona, he’s a mortal. He isn’t Superman.”

Ed Salmons, Westgate Las Vegas sports book manager, said the pros and casual bettors will take similar approaches to the Daytona 500 as well as the other restrictor-plate races, with the heavy majority of money going to betting the odds.

In other NASCAR races, he said the pros will bet on head-to-head matchups 95 percent of the time, with the amateurs betting the driver odds 95 percent of the time.

But Daytona attracts all kinds of attention, and bettors will take a look at any number of propositions, such as at Westgate what will be the number of the winning car (minus-140 for Nos. 1-19) and over/under on number of caution flags (7½).

“The two biggest races (for betting) are Las Vegas and second is Daytona,” Salmons said. “You write four times as many tickets compared to a normal NASCAR race.”

Blessing has his eyes one of those prop bets. He likes Toyota (plus-180) as the winning manufacturer, even though it’s a field dominated by Chevrolet (minus-140).

But Blessing feels good about the chances of Edwards and Kenseth, both members of the Toyota-affiliated Joe Gibbs Racing team.

And Blessing likes the under on Patrick’s finishing spot, which is 20½. There’s that name again.

“This is where she can do it,” Blessing said. “On smaller tracks, she has no shot at it. I don’t think she can handle the shorter tracks.

“I think she will drive around the front most of the day.”

Contact Mark Anderson at manderson@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2914. Follow him on Twitter: @markanderson65.