UFC Fight Night 96 main card analysis: capsules and betting preview

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 96 event in Portland, Oregon:

John Lineker (28-7) vs. John Dodson (19-7)

· CLASS: Bantamweight

· LINE: Dodson -125

· STORYLINE: It may not have much impact on the fight, but it’s certainly worth noting Lineker missed weight for the fifth time in his UFC career. The most amazing part is that he only moved up to 135 pounds after missing four times at 125. While that is clearly an issue, Lineker rarely has much of a problem once the fight actually starts. He has won all three fights since moving up to bantamweight last year. Two of those wins have come by first-round knockout. Lineker has certainly established himself as one of the biggest hitters in the division. Dodson is a different fighter, though he is also quite dangerous. He has nine knockouts on his resume, including a first-round finish of Manny Gamburyan in his bantamweight debut this year. Dodson generates his power from his speed, which may be a tough riddle for Lineker to solve. Dodson has never been stopped in his professional career as all seven of his losses have come by decision. This will be a real test of his chin, though.

· PICK: Lineker by second-round knockout

Will Brooks (18-1) vs. Alex Oliveira (14-3-1, 1 No Contests)

· CLASS: Lightweight

· LINE: Brooks -270

· STORYLINE: Brooks is a proven winner, a trend he continued with a unanimous decision victory over Ross Pearson in his UFC debut in July. Now the former Bellator champion wants to prove he can also win with flair. He has said he wants to show he can win in a variety of ways and highlight how much his game has evolved instead of grinding out a series of victories. That may not be the best idea. There’s no need to tinker with a winning formula. Still, Brooks is incredibly talented and should be able to outclass Oliveira regardless of the gameplan. Oliveira missed weight badly and will likely have a massive size advantage once the fight starts, though he fight-night weight has been capped to ensure the discrepancy isn’t too crazy. Brooks may try to unveil some new wrinkles throughout the fight, but in the end he will stick to what has helped him win nine straight and control the fight on the ground.

· PICK: Brooks by decision

Joshua Burkman (29-13, 1 No Contest) vs. Zak Ottow (13-3)

· CLASS: Welterweight

· LINE: Burkman -235

· STORYLINE: Ottow was brought in as a late replacement to make his UFC debut against the veteran Burkman after Bobby Green was injured and had to pull out of the fight. It’s a huge opportunity for the newcomer to score a win over someone with a name who hasn’t quite been performing at his peak level. Still, Burkman has learned enough tricks over the years to pose Ottow some problems. The key to the fight could be how aggressive Ottow gets with his attacks. Burkman has become much more adept at counter-punching over the years and he could make Ottow pay should he throw caution to the wind early in the fight. Aggression is Ottow’s default setting, though it’s tough to gauge how fighters will react once the bell rings for their UFC debut. He wants to rush in and strike early to get the fight to the mat and set up his grappling. Burkman is a strong wrestler and should be able to keep it standing if he so desires. This has the potential to be a plodding affair, which should favor the veteran.

· PICK: Burkman by decision

Louis Smolka (11-1) vs. Brandon Moreno (11-3)

· CLASS: Flyweight

· LINE: Smolka -420

· STORYLINE: Smolka is about as elite a prospect there is in the 125-pound division. The 25-year-old Hawaiian is a flashy submission specialist with a diverse arsenal of kicks that can keep his opponents off balance. Moreno is tasked with trying to prepare for that on just over a week’s notice. Moreno was eliminated from tournament on Season 24 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” which is currently airing. He got called in to take this fight when Smolka needed an opponent due to an injury to Sergio Pettis. Perhaps the most difficult part of preparing for Smolka with such little time is that his cardio is among the best in the division. It won’t be easy for Smolka to submit Moreno, who is a competent grappler, but he may take him down a few times early to test his endurance after such a brief training camp. One Moreno shows signs of fatigue, he’s in trouble.

· PICK: Smolka by second-round knockout

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL