UFC Fight Night 92 main card analysis: capsules and betting preview

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of UFC Fight Night 92 Saturday at Vivant Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City:

Yair Rodriguez (8-1) vs. Alex Caceres (12-8, 1 No Contest)

· CLASS: Featherweight

· LINE: Rodriguez -315

· STORYLINE: Rodriguez is quickly turning the corner from elite prospect to emerging star. Not only is he an incredible talent, but his style already makes him one of the most entertaining fighters in the entire sport. The 23-year-old native of Mexico combines a solid fundamental base with the kind of explosive and high-risk techniques most fighters won’t even attempt at this level. It’s possible the risks will catch up to him at some point. It just hasn’t happened yet in the UFC. Caceres is a veteran who isn’t afraid to mix it up. He has won two straight fights since coming back up to featherweight and should provide a test for Rodriguez. It’s just not likely he will be the one to slow down the building hype around the future star. This is a great showcase for Rodriguez in a main event spot on Fox Sports 1.

· PICK: Rodriguez by second-round knockout

Dennis Bermudez (16-5) vs. Rony Jason (16-5)

· CLASS: Featherweight

· LINE: Bermudez -220

· STORYLINE: Bermudez bounced back from two consecutive losses to beat Tatsuya Kawagiri in February. He will be the more technically sound fighter in this matchup by a wide margin. Jason, who is coming off a performance-enhancing drug suspension, uses every ounce of energy trying to end fights early. He’s certainly capable of ruining Bermudez’s night. Bermudez is a veteran that should be able to counter that type of gameplan, though. Look for him to use the clinch early in the fight with the intention of wearing Jason down. He should be far less effective after the first round and that’s when Bermudez should be able to take over.

· PICK: Bermudez by decision

Thales Leites (25-6) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-10)

· CLASS: Middleweight

· LINE: Leites -175

· STORYLINE: On the surface, this looks like two fighters headed in opposite directions. Camozzi has won three fights in a row and appears to finally be hitting his stride as a fighter. Leites has lost straight after eight consecutive wins. That’s not exactly a fair comparison, however. Leites, who once challenged Anderson Silva for the title, has lost his fights to stars Gegard Mousasi and Michael Bisping, the newly crowned middleweight champion. Camozzi’s wins have come against mid-tier middleweights at best. Leites is an elite grappler on the mat and Camozzi will need to do his best to keep the fight standing. Even on the feet, Camozzi’s not exactly safe. While Leites isn’t great in the standup, he does have some power in his hands. Camozzi will win if he can just outbox Leites for 15 minutes. At some point, however, the fight will get to the ground.

· PICK: Leites by third-round submission

Santiago Ponzinibbio (23-3) vs. Zak Cummings (19-4)

· CLASS: Welterweight

· LINE: Ponzinibbio -150

· STORYLINE: Ponzinibbio is very aggressive and likes to keep the pressure on his opponents throughout the fight. That should actually play quite well into Cummings’ plan. Cummings is a counter-puncher by nature and should be able to defend Ponzinibbio’s attacks and then make him pay for coming forward. He may also add a wrinkle to his game for this fight. While he doesn’t use it often, Cummings is a capable wrestler. Look for him to find opportunities to mix in shots and use Ponzinibbio’s pressure against him. Ponzinibbio is so confident in his scrambling ability that he doesn’t particularly fear being taken down. Cummings, however, is very good when he gets his opponent on his back. The only official loss for Cummings since 2011 came against contender Gunnar Nelson.

· PICK: Cummings by decision

Trevor Smith (13-6) vs. Joe Gigliotti (7-0)

· CLASS: Middleweight

· LINE: Gigliotti -140

· STORYLINE: While Gigliotti will be taking a big step up in competition when he debuts against the six-fight UFC veteran Smith, the 22-year-old super prospect has passed every test thrown at him thus far in his young career. Gigliotti, who trains with several UFC stars at Power MMA outside Phoenix, has finished all seven opponents he has faced, including the last two within the first two minutes. He is an explosive athlete that can do a little bit of everything in the cage. He has yet to prove his conditioning and Smith is likely to try to test it by dragging him into a grinding affair. He very well may succeed. Smith is a former collegiate wrestler with a developed all-around game. He just doesn’t do anything special. Smith could very easily win, but Gigliotti has the kind of potential that down the road could make bettors look back in shock they only had to lay minus-140 in this fight.

· PICK: Gigliotti by second-round submission

Maryna Moroz (7-1) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-1)

· CLASS: Women’s strawweight

· LINE: Moroz -270

· STORYLINE: Taylor steps in as a late-replacement to make her UFC debut against a solid boxer in Moroz. The edge for Moroz could be in the fact she’s had three fights in the organization to get her feet wet. She does a good job throwing combinations and should be able to outwork Taylor. While Moroz can be susceptible to takedowns and getting pushed around, Taylor is too small to take advantage. She uses her speed to generate power and will look for a big fight-changing shot. Moroz is good enough defensively on the feet to keep that from happening..

· PICK: Moroz by decision