UFC 199 fight-by-fight breakdown

Luke Rockhold (15-2) vs. Michael Bisping (29-7)

•CLASS: For Rockhold’s middleweight title

• LINE: Rockhold minus-700

• STORYLINE: Rockhold might the most talented and athletic fighter on the roster. He makes great use of his size and length. Bisping is incredibly tough and keeps opponents off balance with his movement, but he’s clearly a step below Rockhold. Bisping thinks it’s his destiny to be champion, and he’s thrilled to be getting his first shot at the belt after almost a decade as a perennial contender. But that emotion won’t be enough. Rockhold was clearly the better fighter when he submitted Bisping in their 2014 fight. Bisping claims that fight evened the score between them after he claims to have dominated a sparring session several years earlier. Rockhold says it wasn’t as one-sided as Bisping makes it out and he wasn’t really in fighting shape at the time. Regardless of the circumstances, world title fights are not sparring sessions. Rockhold should have a fairly easy time with Bisping, who took the fight on two weeks’ notice.

• PICK: Rockhold by second-round knockout.

Dominick Cruz (21-1) vs. Urijah Faber (33-8)

• CLASS: For Cruz’s bantamweight title

• LINE: Cruz minus-485

• STORYLINE: The bitter rivals will meet for the third time, looking to break a tie. Faber handed Cruz the only loss of his career with a quick submission in a World Extreme Cagefighting title bout in 2007. Cruz got his revenge with a unanimous decision to retain the UFC belt in 2011. This fight probably should look a lot more like the second meeting. It’s so difficult to figure out Cruz’s movement, and he hasn’t been slowed much by knee and groin injuries. Cruz bounces in and out and lands punches before opponents can counter. He’s also good at preventing takedowns and can land them occasionally to help him win rounds. For whatever reason, Faber hasn’t been effective in title fights. He is 0-6 in championship fights between the WEC and UFC going back to the night he lost the WEC belt to Mike Brown in 2008. He’s not likely to break that streak.

• PICK: Cruz by decision.

Max Holloway (15-3) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-4)

• CLASS: Featherweight

• LINE: Holloway minus-325

• STORYLINE: Holloway has won eight straight fights since losing to Conor McGregor in 2013, with only two fights going the distance. He is an explosive striker with solid submission skills and all the tools to be a champion. Lamas is more of a grinder. His nickname, “The Bully,” is a pretty apt description of what he wants to do in the cage. He should provide a tough challenge to Holloway by not giving him the space he needs to operate. The top of the division is clogged up with McGregor putting title defenses on hold to pursue opportunities in other divisions, but the winner here will be nicely positioned to possibly get a shot at the winner of the interim title bout between Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo should McGregor not come back to featherweight any time soon. Lamas has a legitimate chance if he can stay glued to Holloway. Regardless, the number is way too high on Holloway.

• PICK: Lamas by decision.

Dan Henderson (31-14) vs. Hector Lombard (34-5-1, 2 No Contests)

• CLASS: Middleweight

• LINE: Lombard minus-385

• STORYLINE: At 45, Henderson is finally conceding he might be nearing the end of his career. He has dismissed the question for years, but spent much of this week talking about how his contract would end after this fight and he’ll have a decision to make. Henderson has not been the elite fighter he once was, but he still has one of the sport’s most lethal right hands. He can change the complexion of any fight by landing the one punch. He’s not shy about throwing it, either. Lombard will have to find a way to avoid that shot. He also might need to figure out how to conserve energy. Lombard has notoriously bad stamina, and Henderson said he thinks if he can get through the first three minutes, Lombard will start to fade. Lombard’s early burst is a frightening thing, though. The Olympic judoka is as powerful as anyone else in the division. He didn’t look great in his first fight after a steroid suspension, losing to Neil Magny in March. Lombard, who is moving up from welterweight, has a lot to prove against Henderson, a former Olympian in wrestling.

• PICK: Lombard by first-round knockout.

Dustin Poirier (19-4) vs. Bobby Green (23-6)

• CLASS: Lightweight

• LINE: Poirier minus-215

• STORYLINE: A matchup of exciting and well-rounded lightweights that could end up being the best fight of the main card. Poirier has been sensational since moving back up to 155 pounds last year. He scored back-to-back first-round knockouts before winning a decision over rising prospect Joseph Duffy. Poirier has been in the UFC for five years and is still just 27. That experience has helped mold him from a talented fighter into a very good one. Green had an eight-fight winning streak snapped in his last bout, which came in November 2014. He had to pull out of two consecutive fights because of injury and is finally looking to get back on track. He can be very good, but Poirier is on a roll and has fought better competition. This will be a tough challenge for Green.

• PICK: Poirier by second-round submission.