Handicapping Golden Knights’ chances to make NHL playoffs

Las Vegas Review-Journal

3 years ago

Vegas Golden Knights' Mattias Janmark, center, and Nolan Patrick, right, battle for the puck wi ... — Vegas Golden Knights’ Mattias Janmark, center, and Nolan Patrick, right, battle for the puck with Calgary Flames, left to right, Sean Monahan, Oliver Kylington and Dillon Dube during the second period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Calgary Flames’ Matthew Tkachuk, center, is congratulated by Mikael Backlund, left, and Erik Gudbranson after Tkachuk scored against the Vegas Golden Knights during the third period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ Shea Theodore, left, and Calgary Flames’ Elias Lindholm chase the puck during the second period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ Dylan Coghlan, right, crashes over Calgary Flames’ Mikael Backlund during the second period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ William Karlsson, left, is checked by Calgary Flames’ Brett Ritchie during the first period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights goalie Robin Lehner, right, looks away as Calgary Flames’ Milan Lucic celebrates his teammate’s goal during the first period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ Nicolas Roy, right, looks on as Calgary Flames goalie Jacob Markstrom kicks away the puck during the first period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

Vegas Golden Knights’ Nolan Patrick, right, is hooked by Calgary Flames’ Trevor Lewis during the third period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Feb. 9, 2022, in Calgary, Alberta. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP)

It wasn’t a concession speech from coach Pete DeBoer. Not with this much time left in the regular season for the Golden Knights.

But there was at least an acknowledgment of the difficulty the Knights face in trying to overtake the Calgary Flames for first place in the Pacific Division.

“Playoff positioning has shown over the years to be a little overrated,” DeBoer said Wednesday. “We’re not spending a ton of time on that. But you need to be playing well. I think the position we’re in has got our attention, and we have to play well in order to earn our spot.”

Unlike last season when the Knights went all out trying to win the Presidents’ Trophy and the top overall seed, they aren’t going to overexert themselves this time in an effort to hang another division title banner in the rafters at T-Mobile Arena.

If Calgary wins both its games in hand and plays .500 the rest of the way, the Knights would need 38 of the possible 56 remaining points to tie. But the Flames show no signs of slowing down, meaning the Knights’ focus is to enter the playoffs on a roll.

The schedule is favorable with 11 of their final 28 games against current playoff teams starting Thursday against Boston at T-Mobile Arena.

The competition in the division will come from their Southern California rivals along with Edmonton. Should the Knights have to battle for a wild-card spot, they’ll need to finish ahead of Central Division teams such as Nashville and Dallas.

“Months like this, you can either fall to the pits or rise to the heavens,” winger Keegan Kolesar said. “For us, we want to string as many wins as we can here in this month. Give ourselves a good opportunity to get into the playoff picture early.”

Here is a brief look at the Knights’ competition to make the postseason. Point totals are through Tuesday’s games:

Pacific Division

Los Angeles (65 points)

Games remaining: 27 (11 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 26th (by Tankathon.com)

Outlook: The Kings’ offseason investments in forwards Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson paid off, and they’ve also been rewarded for their patience with 25-goal scorer Adrian Kempe. Maybe the biggest question is whether the goaltending will hold up. Jonathan Quick ranks 11th overall in goals saved above expected by Moneypuck.com.

Golden Knights (64 points)

Games remaining: 28 (11 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 29th

Outlook: Injuries, inconsistency and other issues conspired against the Knights and pushed them into this fight to qualify for the postseason. Since the All-Star break, the offense has missed injured wingers Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, and the depth scoring has dried up. The return of goalie Robin Lehner should help for the stretch drive.

Edmonton (63 points)

Games remaining: 28 (14 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 6th

Outlook: The Oilers look like a different team since Jay Woodcroft replaced Dave Tippett as coach, going 7-3 with two shutouts. The biggest difference has been on defense, where Edmonton has also benefited from improved goaltending. The Oilers’ schedule includes three games against Colorado and two battles of Alberta with Calgary.

Anaheim (61 points)

Games remaining: 26 (13 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 11th

Outlook: The youthful Ducks arrived ahead of schedule but aren’t going away despite a minus-7 goal differential, a middle-of-the-pack defense (3.0 goals per game) and a below-average offense. Their success might not be sustainable, but the NHL would love seeing rookie sensation Trevor Zegras doing the “Michigan” move in the postseason.

Wild card

Nashville (64 points)

Games remaining: 28 (16 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 13th

Outlook: The Predators have a brutal finish, with seven of their final nine games against teams that currently occupy a playoff spot. Defenseman Roman Josi has quarterbacked a strong power play, and Nashville received bounce-back years from forwards Matt Duchene (46 points in 49 games) and Filip Forsberg (27 goals).

Dallas (61 points)

Games remaining: 29 (13 vs. playoff teams)

Strength of schedule: 25th

Outlook: The Stars have been wildly inconsistent, illustrated by their seven-game winning streak in November that was immediately followed by a five-game losing skid, then four straight wins. Scoring depth also remains an issue beyond the first line of Roope Hintz (23 goals), Joe Pavelski (55 points) and Jason Robertson (22 goals).

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.