Defense main theme
It would not be a big surprise if Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald scores the first touchdown of today’s Super Bowl. The oddsmakers picked him as the favorite to do so.
Fitzgerald, an electric performer in the postseason, is a player the Pittsburgh Steelers must fear.
But defense is expected to be the prevailing theme of Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, Fla., and that’s why the Steelers are favored by 61/2 to 7 points over the Cardinals at Las Vegas sports books.
"The Steelers have a defense for the ages," Vegas Insider handicapper Jamie Tursini said, "and defense wins championships. It’s no different here."
Tursini projects a 31-20 win for the Steelers, who are 14-4 straight up and 11-7 against the spread.
Pittsburgh’s defense, ranked No. 1 in the NFL, is led by linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and safety Troy Polamalu.
Arizona scored at least 30 points in all three of its playoff victories as Fitzgerald and veteran quarterback Kurt Warner connected to stretch defenses thin.
But Tursini and Paramount Sports handicapper Lee Sterling foresee an end to the Cinderella run by the Cardinals, who won the weak NFC West and finished the regular season 9-7.
Sterling pointed out the Steelers’ 3-4 defense allowed only one opponent all season to gain more than 300 yards total offense.
Harrison (16 sacks) and Woodley (111/2 sacks) fuel the pass rush that will put heat on Warner. Polamalu, who had seven interceptions, is a relentless run stopper, and Ike Taylor is a strong cover cornerback.
"No team has a one-two punch at the outside linebacker positions like Harrison and Woodley," Sterling said. "As good as Fitzgerald is, and he has been the best player in the playoffs, Taylor is underrated, and Pittsburgh will try to take Fitzgerald out of the game and make someone else the featured player."
Tursini said the Steelers should be able to negate Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower and the Cardinals’ running attack. Pittsburgh ranks first in the league in run defense on the road, allowing 81.4 yards per game.
"Clearly, the Pittsburgh defense has a huge advantage, and that all starts with the ability to stop the run," Tursini said. "Don’t think Arizona will run, as no one has been able to do it yet.
"James and Hightower are nowhere near breakaway threats and pose little problems. Look for the Steelers’ defense to take advantage of third-and-longs in a big way, whether be it a big hit, interception or sack versus Warner."
While the Cardinals’ pass defense can be exploited, their run defense has stiffened in the postseason by allowing 77.3 yards per game.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tends to make plays at critical times, but he also has been erratic. Roethlisberger might not be able to rely as much on wideout Hines Ward, who has a knee injury.
Running back Willie Parker has 193 yards rushing in two playoff games. Parker ran for 146 against San Diego but was held to 47 yards on 24 carries against Baltimore in the AFC championship.
"This is not the same Steelers team that was floundering at 6-3 in early November," Sterling said. "They have straightened their offensive line problems, and Parker seems to finally be 100 percent after battling injuries for most of the season."
If Arizona loads up to stop Parker, it could be up to Roethlisberger to take command. Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb torched the Cardinals’ pass defense in the second half of the NFC championship.
"The Arizona defense has been getting a lot of credit. But let’s take a look at the game against the Eagles," Tursini said. "If McNabb makes a few accurate throws in the first half, the Eagles win. They were unstoppable after McNabb finally got control of himself. He had all day to throw and made it count. The Cardinals rushed three a lot, and the Eagles still had wide-open receivers running around.
"Roethlisberger is facing a defense that allowed a quarterback rating of just under 97. With Parker and the running game, I think the Steelers will put up points, as they love to take their shots downfield, and make no mistake there will be plenty of wide-open space."
Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh to one Super Bowl victory, 21-10 over the Seattle Seahawks in 2006.
Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator, could be the wild card because of his familiarity with Roethlisberger and his old team.
"Don’t underestimate the experience factor," Tursini said. "There’s plenty of Steelers players who have rings from a few seasons ago. And remember, Roethlisberger had one of the worst Super Bowls a quarterback could have had, and no question he has a bad taste that he’d like to get right."
Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
SUPER BOWL OPINIONS
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 61/2- to 7-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals in today’s game, and the total is 461/2. A survey of opinions from Las Vegas Review-Journal staff members and handicappers:
Mark Anderson, Review-Journal Steelers, 27-26
Being a Steelers fan, this game scares me. Kurt Warner and his receivers are going to be difficult to stop. Even if Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward plays, he will be at far less than 100 percent. The Steelers are the better team, but I see this as a close game.
Rocky Atkinson, Rocketmansports.net Steelers, 35-14
Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing only 14.5 points per game overall and 13.5 points per game on the road. Arizona is allowing 25.7 points per game and a whopping 29 points per game on the road.
Steve Beaudry, Review-Journal Cardinals, 27-20
Warner has the most (414) and second-most (365) yards passing in Super Bowl history. Even a stout Steelers defense won’t stop him.
Buzz Daly, Buzzdaly.com Cardinals, 31-17
The Steelers stubbornly will insist on running and not convert many plays on third-and-long. When the Cardinals’ defense throttles running back Willie Parker, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will not compensate.
Joseph D’Amico, Allamericansports.info Cardinals, 27-24
Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt knows how to prepare for and exploit the Steelers. Warner is the best in the NFL at beating a blitzing defense.
Patrick Everson, Review-Journal Steelers, 24-21
If Arizona can hang around in the first half and avoid turnovers as it gets acclimated, this game stands a good chance of remaining close throughout. That would put the Cardinals in position to cover the seven points and maybe even spring the upset.
Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com Steelers, 23-17
The Steelers should blitz Warner all day. The Cardinals’ offensive line is good enough to stop the rush and stay under the spread.
Mark Franco, Vegasinsider.com Steelers, 34-24
I see this going over the total with lots of passing by both teams. Pittsburgh will be able to put up points versus an Arizona defense with holes. The Steelers’ defense could be good for one score.
Ed Graney, Review-Journal Steelers, 27-20
I don’t trust teams with an owner (Bill Bidwill) who takes fashion tips from a popcorn king (Orville Redenbacher). That, and it would be sacrilegious for Arizona to win a Super Bowl before Buffalo.
Adam Hill, Review-Journal Steelers, 27-17
Warner is a master at burning the blitz, but the Steelers will mix up the pass rush enough to confuse and bottle up the immobile veteran. Expect the game to be close into the third quarter, when the Steelers’ offensive line takes over.
Doug Kezirian, KTNV sports director Steelers, 24-19
For the same reasons this game is so intriguing, betting it seems illogical. So many variables exist in an unpredictable matchup.
Pittsburgh has the potential to blow out Arizona, while the Cardinals’ offense has looked nearly unstoppable this postseason.
Allen Leiker, Review-Journal Cardinals, 27-23
I have Cardinals 7, Steelers 4 in the office pool, so look for Pittsburgh’s Jeff Reed to miss an extra point with about a minute left. The Cardinals will recover the ensuing onside kick and run out the clock.
Bruce Marshall, The Gold Sheet Cardinals, 27-24
I’m not sure how good Pittsburgh really is, especially if Ward is not 100 percent. Arizona has playmakers on defense. The Cardinals have a shot.
Mike Scalleat, Ecappermall.com Steelers, 34-20
The Steelers faced the toughest schedule in years, and that should help them against the Cardinals, from the weak NFC West.
Kelso Sturgeon, Kelsosportshandicapping.com Cardinals, 28-24
Arizona has lost seven games — four of them by margins of 21, 28, 21 and 40 points — and still is in the Super Bowl, and I don’t bet against teams anointed by a higher power.
Dave Tuley, ViewFromVegas.com Cardinals, 23-17
Even if Warner and the offense don’t explode, the Cardinals’ underrated defense is the key to pulling the upset.
Jamie Tursini, Vegasinsider.com Steelers, 31-20
The Steelers are too physical on both sides of the ball. They will relegate Warner to throwing throughout the game and force plenty of opportunities for Cardinals mistakes.
Mal Van Valkenburg, Review-Journal Steelers, 21-20
The Steelers’ defense will create enough scoring opportunities for Pittsburgh to hang on for the victory.
Matt Youmans, Review-Journal Steelers, 23-20
Roethlisberger will make a few big plays, but Pittsburgh’s defense will be the deciding factor by forcing turnovers.
Straight-up picks: Steelers 12, Cardinals 7
Against the spread: Cardinals 13, Steelers 6
Total points: 12 over, 7 under
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
BETWEEN THE LINESBy Mal Van Valkenburg/Review-JournalSANTONIO HOLMES OVER TOTAL RECEPTIONS (3 1/2) With a knee injury slowing Hines Ward, Holmes will be the focal point of the Steelers’ offense. SANTONIO HOLMES OVER LENGTH OF LONGEST RECEPTION (22 1/2 yards) The strength of Holmes’ game is running after the catch. Expect him to break off at least one medium-to-long reception. KURT WARNER OVER TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN (1 1/2) The Cardinals rely on the passing game almost like a running game. I expect Warner to continue his great postseason and have more than one TD pass. TOTAL KICKOFFS BY THE ARIZONA CARDINALS OVER 4 1/2 To win this prop, you need four scores. Between field goals and TDs, the Cardinals should get there. TOTAL SACKS OVER (4 1/2) BY BOTH TEAMS The Steelers are known for their pass rush, but the Cardinals have improved in that department during their playoff run.
