Defense can be key in playoffs

In baseball, it’s the closer. A superb reliever can provide a boost not just in saves, but in WHIP and K/9.

In basketball, it’s the point guard. A steady point who doesn’t commit turnovers and shoots well from the field is invaluable.

In football, it’s the defense.

The solid 10 to 12 points a good fantasy defense provides can win or lose a week, and in the playoffs, it’s all about week to week. There’s no margin for error.

While the standard rule applies to drafting — never pick a defense too early, because the best fantasy defense tends to fluctuate from year to year — you must pay attention to team defenses during the next few weeks.

Keep an eye out for these teams, and you’ll be in good — or bad — shape.

• The Good: Green Bay, which faces turnover machines Oakland, St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit; San Diego, with Antonio Cromartie peaking and Tennessee, Detroit, Denver and Oakland on the schedule; and Seattle, with Arizona, Carolina, Baltimore and Atlanta ahead.

• The Bad: New York Giants, who lead the league in sacks (by eight), have tough matchups with Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo and New England; Chicago is nowhere near the force it once was, despite Devin Hester; and Tampa Bay, which hasn’t made much out of a cake schedule, at least fantasy-wise.

On to the locks of the week:

MONEYMAKERS

Top-tier players who should perform to their value:

• Drew Brees, New Orleans quarterback vs. Atlanta: Brees’ first six games — five touchdowns. Brees’ last six games — 15 touchdowns. Atlanta, his opponent this week, has 14 interceptions but puts little pressure on the quarterback. Brees plus time in the pocket equals dangerous.

• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville running back vs. Carolina: Those early season goal-line carries that were going to Greg Jones are — for the most part — going to MoJo. He’s scored in four straight games, and while the yardage hasn’t been there since Week 10, he’ll find it this week.

• Dallas Clark, Indianapolis tight end vs. Baltimore: Clark has had a peculiar season — he’s either a go-to guy or a nonfactor. A ghost in Weeks 8 through 11, Clark has 109 yards and three scores the past two games.

WINGMEN

Midround picks who should feast on favorable matchups:

• Eli Manning, New York Giants quarterback vs. Philadelphia: Manning looked like a world-beater early this season as he found a groove with Plaxico Burress. He gets it back this week against an Eagles defense that’s picked off a league-low seven passes. His confidence should be high after knocking off Chicago and pretty much sewing up a wild-card berth.

• Ryan Grant, Green Bay running back vs. Oakland: Grant cannot be overlooked. If he’s available — and if he is, that’s ridiculous — go pick him up. Now. The kid has 402 yards and four touchdowns in his last four games and plays the Raiders this week. Oakland is the pinata; Grant is the bat.

• Bobby Engram, Seattle wide receiver vs. Arizona: Raise your hand if you realized Engram was on the verge of 1,000 yards. Anyone? Not a surprise. Engram quietly has been a reliable performer, but with only two 100-yard games and four touchdowns spread across the season, he hasn’t gotten any recognition. Bank on another big day this week.

BANK-BREAKERS

Top-tier guys who won’t perform up to their value:

• Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City tight end vs. Denver: The Broncos’ defense might be awful right now — and this is coming from a devout Orange and Blue fan — but the stats don’t lie. Gonzalez never has done particularly well against Denver, averaging 44 yards per game. Mike Shanahan’s defenses typically scheme well against tight ends.

• Donald Driver, Green Bay wide receiver vs. Oakland: I love, love, love Driver, but part of me thinks Greg Jennings will be the man against the Raiders, who have been tough against the pass. Plus, Jennings has 10 scores to Driver’s two — Favre’s found a new favorite.

• Tom Brady, New England quarterback vs. Pittsburgh: It’s fantasy-football blasphemy to bet against Brady, but over the past couple of weeks the Steelers have seen what pressure can do to the Patriots. Brady will get good stats — two touchdowns, 250 or so yards — but he won’t perform to his value.

QUICK PICK SIX

The best bets for the week, based on value:

Clark; Engram; WR Greg Jennings (vs. Oakland); QB Sage Rosenfels (vs. Tampa Bay); RB Earnest Graham (vs. Houston); RB Reggie Bush (vs. Atlanta).

Jon Gold is a Review-Journal sportswriter with 10 fantasy football teams. His column is published Friday. He can be reached at jgold@reviewjournal.com.