Weekend best bets: Is wrong team favored in Georgia-Texas game?
Georgia dealt Texas a 30-15 loss Oct. 19 in Austin, but the Bulldogs are underdogs in Saturday’s rematch in the SEC title game in Atlanta.
CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall, who won the Review-Journal College Challenge with a 44-24-2 ATS record, thinks the wrong team is favored. He made Georgia, a consensus 2½-point underdog (+3 at the South Point), his best bet of the weekend.
“Not buying the spread here considering how the Bulldogs took care of the Longhorns without much trouble at Austin,” he said. “Moreover, this rematch is being played in Georgia’s backyard at Atlanta, where Kirby Smart’s team already dominated Clemson in the season opener.
“Texas was the beneficiary of the easiest possible SEC slate, skipping every serious contender except Georgia, and the offense hasn’t exactly been percolating lately. … The Bulldogs had it much tougher in the SEC this season, traveling to ’Bama and Ole Miss on top of Texas, and displayed quite a resolve when coming back on upset-minded Georgia Tech last week.”
Weekend best bets went 5-3-1 ATS last week and are 45-26-3 the past 11 weeks (home team in CAPS).
Georgia-Texas under 50
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone (41-29 ATS in the RJ Challenge) expects points to be at a premium in Saturday’s SEC title game and recommends a bet on the under (50).
Stone pointed out that only one of Georgia’s six scoring drives in the first meeting exceeded 34 yards.
“Both teams will have some new wrinkles on offense in the rematch,” he said. “But Texas arguably has the nation’s top defense, and the Longhorns’ offense has not been hitting as many explosive plays the second half of the season.
“Georgia’s defensive front stonewalled Texas in the first meeting.”
Clemson (+2½) over SMU
Based on the Westgate’s power ratings, SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons made Clemson his best bet in the ACC title game.
“I’ve had Clemson a higher number than SMU for 15 straight weeks, and now I’m getting 2½ in a game that I have Clemson favored,” he said. “It’s literally a gift for Clemson because they absolutely choked (Saturday’s 17-14 loss to) South Carolina. They lost, and their season was over, and all of a sudden Miami blows a 21-0 lead at Syracuse, which gives Clemson a chance to make the playoffs now. I think they’ll take advantage of it.”
Miami (Ohio) (-2) over Ohio
Alex White, who placed second in the RJ Challenge at 44-25-1, likes Miami (Ohio) to beat Ohio for the second time this season in the Mid-American Conference title game after winning the first meeting 30-20 in October.
“Typically, I love revenge spots, but this is a bad matchup for Ohio,” she said. “Two fourth-quarter touchdowns by Ohio made the final score look more competitive than it was. The Redhawks are the more complete team and peaking at the right time.”
EAGLES (-12½) over Panthers
“We know that this is a potential letdown spot for the Eagles, but the metrics on my end heavily favor them well beyond this number,” said pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk (@lasvegascris), 9-3 ATS on his RJ picks. “Saquon Barkley is trying for the rushing record and potential awards, and I believe the team is motivated to be a part of his success. They obviously want that No. 1 seed if they can keep winning.”
Falcons-VIKINGS over 45½
“We get a fairly low total in a game where Minnesota should be able to score plenty,” said Scott Kellen, who leads the RJ NFL Challenge (40-24-1). “Minnesota leads the league in explosive pass plays and should hit some in this game. … Atlanta offers up one of the lowest pressure rates in the league, along with the fewest sacks in the league.
“Kirk Cousins will be a statue behind center, but he has enough ability to move the ball on enough plays to help us get over the number.”
Seahawks-CARDINALS
Legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger (5-0 ATS last week in the RJ Challenge) likes Arizona (-2½) to avenge its 16-6 loss to Seattle on Nov. 24, while pro bettor Jeff Whitelaw (6-0 ATS run in RJ) wagered on the Seahawks +3.
“The Seahawks defense in Seattle dominated Kyler Murray in the first meeting, highlighted by a pick-6 and five sacks,” Musburger said. “The rematch is in Arizona, the Cards are giving less than 3, and I predict Kyler will atone for his Game 1 stinker.”
Said Whitelaw: “Seattle’s playing very well, and I think there’s something missing with Arizona. I just thought 3 was a little too much.”
Browns-STEELERS
Cleveland native Doug Fitz (38-27 in the RJ Challenge) likes his Browns (+7) to cover in a rematch of their 24-19 win over the Steelers on Nov. 21. PickDawgz.com handicapper Dana Lane made Pittsburgh (-6½) his best bet.
“This is a division game, and the Browns are usually competitive in divisional games,” Fitz said. “The Browns have already beaten the Steelers this season, and I think they can keep this game close if not win outright.”
Said Lane: “There were some changes to Arthur Smith’s offense after a loss in Cleveland two weeks ago, resulting in a 44-point outburst at Cincinnati. On defense, the goal is to make Jameis Winston uncomfortable, and they will have a better chance to do that with the return of Alex Highsmith.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.