Wagerers not shy about backing Packers on road
When the Chicago Bears traded for Jay Cutler two years ago, they planned on the enigmatic quarterback leading them to a Super Bowl someday. Maybe that day has arrived.
It is arguably the NFL’s greatest rivalry, and today’s NFC Championship Game between the Bears and Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field might be the most important showdown ever for these age-old franchises.
The hard-to-believe fact is Green Bay and Chicago last faced off in the playoffs in 1941. But the NFC North appears it will be a beast for years to come, with Cutler and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers setting the tone.
Despite the Bears winning the division, the sixth-seeded Packers are 3½-point favorites, and the betting public is riding them.
Is Chicago’s home-field advantage big enough to derail the hottest player in the game? Rodgers engineered postseason wins at Philadelphia and Atlanta, making it look too easy at times. The Bears must find ways to consistently get in his face and force mistakes.
Green Bay’s defense is massively underrated, featuring a fierce pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary. Charles Woodson springs to mind as a big-play cornerback, but the young guns are ruling the roost. Clay Matthews probably had Cutler tossing in his sleep all week, B.J. Raji is a beast against the run, and the major danger in the playoffs has been cornerback Tramon Williams.
In November, Williams signed a $41 million contract extension. He responded by sealing the victory at Philadelphia with a pickoff of Michael Vick and, a week later, racing to the end zone on a 70-yard interception return against Matt Ryan and Atlanta. Williams was added to the Pro Bowl roster.
Chicago’s defense held Green Bay to 17 and 10 points in their two meetings this season. Today’s total is 43.
“The Packers-Bears line is surprising to me,” Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba said. “It’s been done before, but playing three straight road playoff games is extremely tough. The betting public is just not buying into the Bears.
“As far as the total is concerned, I made it 40½. Look at their first two games. Two very good defenses will be on the field, and I expect another hardnosed game.”
LVSC odds director Tony Sinisi largely agreed with Seba’s assessment.
“This is clearly a reflection of what everyone has seen in recent weeks,” Sinisi sad. “Laying over a field goal on the road in the playoffs is a precarious thread.”
■ New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3½): In this postseason we’ve encountered numerous reruns of regular-season games, and the AFC final offers a rematch of an exciting game played Dec. 19.
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could not pull the rabbit out of his helmet on the game’s final drive, as the Jets survived a 22-17 thriller. Pittsburgh has been in several close finishes and usually ends up winning. The Jets also have had their fair share of fantastic finishes.
The Jets were brash leading up to their playoff games at Indianapolis and New England, then they confused and frustrated the two best quarterbacks of this era in back-to-back weeks. This week, Jets players have been eerily quiet.
The Steelers’ stout run defense probably will force New York’s hand and make inconsistent quarterback Mark Sanchez carry the load. Early in his career, Sanchez has been up to the challenge, sporting a 4-1 postseason record.
“The Jets have that special look to me,” Sinisi said. “Getting the best of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady signals that the Jets are not a team I’d be comfortable betting against. The team that wins the battle on the ground likely wins the game. Pittsburgh is a tough place to exit with a win, but the Jets have the look of angels right now.”
Bettors seem split on the game, and Seba is leaning the Steelers’ way.
“I made Pittsburgh minus-4. If the Steelers were going to lose, I think it was last week against Baltimore,” Seba said. “They may have been a bit lucky in that game, but that happens when you’re playing at home. Pittsburgh also has the edge in experience. Both teams may struggle throwing the football, making the running game the key to victory.”
Most indications from sports book directors in Las Vegas is the public will continue to back the favorites and both lines could close at 4.
Brian Blessing, host of Sportsbook Radio on ESPN (1100 AM, 98.9 FM), can be reached at blessproductions@yahoo.com.
