Trade of Khalil Mack whacks Raiders’ odds in Las Vegas
Just win in 2020, baby.
That’s the virtual mission statement of the Raiders after they traded defensive end Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears on Saturday. The deal decreased Oakland’s 2018 odds across the board at Las Vegas sports books.
“It’s obvious the Raiders are essentially building for 2020 in Las Vegas,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “That’s the year they want to be a rising team with a realistic chance to do something. This year’s team has no chance.”
After the trade, the Westgate moved the Raiders’ odds from 20-1 to 40-1 to win the Super Bowl and from 10-1 to 20-1 to win the AFC.
“The Raiders to win the conference is by far our biggest loser. People were in here betting thousands of dollars on the Raiders to win the conference,” Salmons said. “When they made that trade, looking at their schedule, there’s no way they’re making the playoffs.”
Oakland’s win total also dropped from 8 (under minus 125) to 7½ (under minus 140) and the odds moved from minus 200 to minus 275 against it making the playoffs.
Rising Rams
The Los Angeles Rams have climbed from 3-point to 4½-point favorites over the Raiders in Monday night’s season opener at the Oakland Coliseum.
“We’re trying to do everything we can to make the Raiders cover this game,” Salmons said. “It’s the last game of Week 1 on Monday night and we know who everyone is going to bet and who every parlay is going to land on. So we tried to get ahead of the curve. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line goes to 5½ and we may even see 6.
“The perception is that the Raiders just traded away their best player and the Rams are a Super Bowl team.”
Backing the Buckeyes
A bettor at the South Point sports book wagered $33,000 to win $30,000 on Ohio State (minus 35) over Rutgers and placed a $15,000 three-team parlay on the Buckeyes, Boise State and Oklahoma, per venerable oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro.
Boise State is a 35-point home favorite over Connecticut and Oklahoma is 30½-point home favorite over UCLA. The Buckeyes opened as 32½-point home favorites at Wynn Las Vegas, where sports book director Johnny Avello posts the first lines on college football at 3 p.m. each Sunday.
Fading Philadelphia
The line on Thursday’s Eagles-Falcons NFL season opener continues to drop. A South Point bettor placed a $100,000 wager on Atlanta at plus-4 on Aug. 26 that moved the line to 3. Philadelphia is now a consensus 2½-point favorite and is down to 1½ at the Westgate.
Power ratings vs. polls
Las Vegas power ratings don’t move as much as the Associated Press Top 25 poll, which comes out Tuesday because of the holiday weekend.
“The thing about power ratings, it’s almost impossible for a team to drop out of the so-called Top 25, because it doesn’t go by wins and losses,” Salmons said. “I still have Michigan ahead of Notre Dame. But I know the polls won’t.”
After the Fighting Irish’s 24-17 win over the Wolverines, Salmons dropped Michigan from No. 7 to No. 9 in his ratings and moved up Notre Dame from No. 14 to No. 11. Louisiana State made the biggest jump, from No. 22 to No. 16, after its 33-17 win over Miami, which fell from No. 13 to No. 17.
Likewise, VSiN host and Gaughan Gaming sports book director Vinnie Magliulo moved LSU from No. 24 to No. 13 in his power ratings while dropping the Hurricanes from No. 13 to No. 20.
“That was a pretty one-sided affair,” Magliulo said. “You can’t overreact to some things but you certainly have to react to what you see on the field and read further into the box scores.
“There’s more overreaction in the AP and Coaches poll. With all due respect to those people, the last thing we use in determining point spreads are those rankings. We use our power ratings. Polls don’t determine prices.”
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Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.