Take Colts to bounce back today, cover spread vs. Jets

Handicapper Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet (goldsheet.com) expects the roles to be reversed today on “Monday Night Football” (5:30 p.m., ESPN (30)). The host Colts are favored by 6½ to 7 points over the Jets at Las Vegas sports books and the total is between 46 and 46½ points.

“Indianapolis, off a loss, is 14-1 in the (quarterback) Andrew Luck/(coach) Chuck Pagano era. They usually bounce back well off a defeat and their numbers are good at home as favorites,” said Marshall, who is 2-1 against the spread this season in this space. “The Jets’ numbers on the road the last few years are not that good. They have a new regime, but you’d be basing a Jets’ recommendation tonight on a win over a flawed Browns team that had to put Johnny Football in the game.

“They might be better than I thought, but I’ll play the long trends here. The Colts off a loss and the Colts at home as a favorite have generally been a good percentage play. I need more convincing from the Jets.”

The Colts, who went 6-2-1 ATS as home favorites last season, opened as 7½-point favorites at a couple places around town but had been bet down to 6½ at all but a few Vegas books as of early Monday afternoon.

If you like the Jets, head to the Golden Nugget, Wynn or Coast Casinos as they’re the only places offering plus-7.

“We’ve gone back and forth between 7 and 6½,” Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said. “Right now, with the Colts being a public team and being 0-1 and the general feeling is they can’t go 0-2, the line is at 7 and I don’t anticipate it moving off of 7 the rest of the day.

“There was Jets money during the week and we were at 6½, but after Saturday and Sunday, the money is always going to the favorite and over. We got a lot of Colts money Sunday night and moved it to 7.”

The total has stayed pretty flat.

“We got a little bit on the under 46½. It never hit 47,” Miller said. “We got hit today on the under and now we’re at 46.”