Super Bowl prop betting pro tip: Follow the money
When the smorgasbord of Super Bowl LII prop bets were posted at Las Vegas sports books Thursday, professional sports bettor Frank Carulli scoured the numbers like a hawk stalking its prey.
Moments after the Westgate sports book posted more than 400 props Thursday night, Carulli spotted a sizable middle — which in betting parlance means a chance to win wagers on both sides of a game or, in this case, a prop.
William Hill sports book had opened Eagles quarterback Nick Foles’ total passing yards at 270½ on Thursday afternoon. The Westgate opened Foles’ passing yards at 239½, opening up a healthy middle of 30 yards.
After quickly checking his William Hill mobile app, Carulli saw that Foles’ total had dipped to 259½. But he decided a 19-yard middle was still worth a small bet.
Carulli punched in a $330 wager to win $300 on under 259½ on his mobile app, then waited in line at the Westgate, where he bet $330 on over 239½.
If Foles finishes with 240 to 259 yards passing, Carulli will cash both bets and win $600. If he doesn’t, Carulli will split the wagers and lose the $30 in juice.
Many other bettors also appear to be trying to hit that middle. As of Saturday afternoon, the total had climbed to 247½ at the Westgate and dropped to 251½ at William Hill.
Besides looking for attractive middles, Carulli’s pro tip on betting Super Bowl props is to follow the money. If a line moves dramatically on a prop — and it’s not because of a middle — Carulli said it’s probably a smart play.
“I have noticed over the years that if you comb through the numbers closer to game time, you’ll see a few that moved quite a bit,” he said. “They generally hit.”
For example, Carulli recounted a Super Bowl XLVIII prop on Seahawks receiver Percy Harvin. Over 1½ rushes opened at plus money and closed at more than a 2-1 favorite. The over cashed in the first half, when Harvin had two carries for 45 yards en route to Seattle’s 43-8 win over the Broncos.
Carulli also noted Vikings receiver Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop in Minnesota’s 38-7 loss to the Eagles in the NFC championship game. It opened at 69½ yards at the Westgate, closed at 62½ and cashed when Thielen finished with 28 yards receiving on three catches.
“I’d recommend, on Wednesday or Thursday, to look at prop updates from where they opened. You might snuff out one or two that moved a lot,” he said. “Someone might be onto something and may have the inside track.”
For those planning to take Philadelphia on the money line, which ranges from plus 150 to plus 170, Carulli suggests a different strategy.
“I’d take 3-1 on Foles to be named MVP instead. If the Eagles win, there’s a pretty good chance he’s going to get it,” he said. “If you bet $100 on the Eagles on the money line, you’d win $150. If you bet $100 on Foles, you’d win $300.”
Along with Foles, Carulli suggests sprinkling two $10 long-shot MVP bets on Philadelphia running back LeGarrette Blount at 60-1 and another player.
“Value-wise, that’s a good way to bet it,” he said. “But I’m not betting on the Eagles to win the game.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.