Sugar Bowl Capsule

■ WHEN: 5:30 p.m. today

■ WHERE: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans

■ TV: ESPN (Brad Nessler, play-by-play; Todd Blackledge, analyst)

■ LINE: Ohio State -3½; total 56½

■ RECORDS VS. BOWL TEAMS: Arkansas 6-2, Ohio State 6-1

■ NCAA SCHEDULE STRENGTH: Arkansas sixth, Ohio State tied for 55th

■ BCS RANKINGS: Arkansas eighth, Ohio State sixth

■ OFFICIATING CREW: Atlantic Coast Conference

■ COACHES: Arkansas, Bobby Petrino (3-2 in bowl games); Ohio State, Jim Tressel (5-4)

■ WHY YOU SHOULD WATCH: It’s a heavyweight matchup between teams that, with a couple of breaks, could have been in the national championship picture. Both have explosive, high-scoring offenses. Yet the most compelling factor might be whether Ohio State can finally get a bowl win against a Southeastern Conference opponent; the Buckeyes are 0-9 versus the SEC.

■ KEY STATS: Behind the passing of quarterback Ryan Mallett, Arkansas averages 338.4 yards per game to rank third in the nation in passing offense. But Ohio State’s pass defense is the best Arkansas will have faced this season. The Buckeyes are ranked fourth in the country in that category.

■ X-FACTOR: It’s old news now, but quarterback Terrelle Pryor, wide receiver DeVier Posey and running back Dan Herron are among six Buckeyes who violated NCAA rules by selling memorabilia. Five of the players, including Pryor, Posey and Herron, have been suspended for the first five games of next season. But will that scandal have an effect on the final game of this season? We’ve seen it happen before in this game (Alabama in ’08, for example), when negative attention seemed to cause a team to play below its usual standards. For those not buying into mind games and more into on-field issues, this game could come down to red-zone performance. Arkansas has a 91 percent success rate in red-zone offense. The Razorbacks have scored on 42 of 46 red-zone chances, with 33 of those resulting in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Ohio State has a 70 percent success rate in red-zone defense, which ranks ninth nationally. Ohio State has limited opponents to 19 scores (14 touchdowns, five field goals) on 27 red-zone opportunities.

■ ARKANSAS WILL WIN IF: Obviously, avoiding turnovers is vital. Mallett threw three interceptions in a loss to Alabama, and the Razorbacks committed three turnovers in a loss to Auburn. A productive passing game is needed, too. But the Razorbacks also need to establish a successful running game to keep Ohio State’s defense off-balance.

■ OHIO STATE WILL WIN IF: Although Arkansas’ passing game is a big threat, Ohio State must contain running back Knile Davis and the Razorbacks’ running game. The Buckeyes gave up 184 yards rushing yards to Wisconsin in their only loss. If Arkansas is able to mount a sustained running attack, passing opportunities will open up for Mallett. A strong pass rush is vital, too. Offensively, the Buckeyes must establish the run with Herron and Pryor. Pryor also needs to have an efficient passing game. He completed only half his passes and had an interception in the Buckeyes’ lone loss.

■ PREDICTION: Arkansas 27, Ohio State 24