RJ writers weigh in on Raiders prop bets this season

(From Caesars Entertainment)

Antonio Brown season total receptions: 89½ (Over -105, Under -115)

— Adam Hill: Over

Brown has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL, averaging 114.3 catches per season over the last six years and never finishing with fewer than 101 receptions over that span. Coach Jon Gruden will find plenty of ways to get him involved, especially on short passes near the line of scrimmage.

— Myles Simmons: Under

I know Brown has made more than 100 receptions in each of the last six seasons. But there were only 13 wide receivers last year who eclipsed 90 receptions. I know Derek Carr is going to do his best to feed him, but I think Carr will spread the ball around — particularly because Hunter Renfrow is going to be a great third-down target.

— Todd Dewey: Over

After downgrading in quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger — who led the league in passing yards, attempts and completions last season — to Derek Carr, Brown might not reach 100 receptions for the seventh consecutive year. But he should finish with at least 90.

Josh Jacobs season total rush yards: 907½ (Over/Under -110)

— Hill: Over

This is a number that might ordinarily look like a clear under. Only 16 players in the league eclipsed it last season and rookies generally struggle. But the Raiders seem poised to make Jacobs a bell-cow back from day one and keep him on the field as long as he can handle the workload.

— Simmons: Over

Jacobs appears to be the kind of bell-cow back who can reach 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie. In recent years, we’ve seen that from rookies such as Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. I tend to think Gruden wants to run the ball a lot, and Jacobs will be featured.

— Dewey: Over

Jacobs averaged 5.9 yards per carry at Alabama, was the first running back picked in the 2019 NFL draft and is a three-down back who figures to be used a lot by Jon Gruden. Sixteen players — or half the league’s starting running backs — went over this number last season. Jacobs should as well this year.

Derek Carr season total pass TDs: 22½ (Over/Under -110)

— Hill: Under

In a season when he was 12th in the league with 553 attempts and trailing in nearly every game, Carr was only able to throw 19 touchdowns last season. He has eclipsed this number twice in his five seasons with the Raiders, but this team figures to be able to run the ball more effectively.

— Simmons: Over

With the weapons he has, Carr should reach at least 23 touchdowns this year. He’s eclipsed that number twice in his career, and in the second year in Jon Gruden’s offense, this should be the third.

— Dewey: Under

Carr has averaged 24.4 TD passes in his five-year career, but he threw for only 19 TDs last season and 22 in 2017. He’ll have two new TD targets in Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, but the Raiders like to run the ball in the red zone more than most teams, and rookie running back Josh Jacobs will probably cut into Carr’s total.

Derek Carr season total pass yards: 3,984½ (Over/Under -110)

— Hill: Under

Carr stayed healthy all season and was forced into passing mode early and often with a horrific defense, but still managed to get to 4,049 yards. He has more weapons this year, but the team would probably prefer to sling it around a bit less.

— Simmons: Under

Carr reached 4,000 yards passing last year. But if the run game improves as it should, Carr might not need to reach that milestone for the offense to be successful. And who’s to say that the offense will even be that successful? Just because Carr should reach 23 touchdowns doesn’t mean he’ll get to 4k.

— Dewey: Under

Only 13 NFL QBs topped that total last season. Carr was one of them, but he’s surpassed that number only twice in his five-year career while averaging 3,747 yards. He needs time to build chemistry with Antonio Brown and his new receiving corps.

(From Station Casinos)

Antonio Brown season total receiving yards: 1,125½ (Over -155, Under +125)

— Hill: Under

While the usage should be plentiful, Brown figures to be used more underneath and in intermediate routes with Tyrell Williams serving as more of the deep threat outside.

— Simmons: Under

Again, I think they’ll feed Brown, and I think he’ll get over 1,000 yards. But with the way the Raiders should spread the ball around, he might not reach 1,126.

— Dewey: Over

Brown has averaged 1,524 yards the last six seasons and has never finished below 1,284 receiving yards during that span. Derek Carr isn’t Ben Roethlisberger, but he should still be able to help Brown eclipse that mark.

Antonio Brown season total TDs: 9½ (Over +115, Under -145)

— Hill: Under

Brown scored an absurd 15 times last year, a number that figures to come down drastically as he learns to build chemistry with Derek Carr.

— Simmons: Under

Brown caught a career high 15 last year. He’s reached at least 10 in four of the last five years. But that was in a different offense with a different quarterback and a vastly different situation. I think he could get to nine, but I wouldn’t bet 10.

— Dewey: Under

Brown averaged 11 TDs the last six seasons catching passes from six-time Pro Bowl QB Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh’s high-scoring offense. But he’ll likely regress in his first year in Oakland as he adjusts to life with a lesser QB in Derek Carr and an offense that was in the bottom five in scoring last season.

Oakland Raiders season total wins: 6 (Over +115, Under -145)

— Hill: Under

The schedule is brutal and front-loaded. If the Raiders get off to a slow start, there is more potential for things to go completely upside down than for a run at .500.

— Simmons: Under

Wish I could push here because I think six is a solid number. The Raiders should be better, but they’re playing in arguably the toughest division in football. Plus, they have to play the tough NFC North. And they have a brutal travel schedule, where they won’t play in Oakland from mid-September to early November. All that adds up to a tough road to more than six wins.

— Dewey: Under

The Raiders will be improved, but they’ll still be hard-pressed to top their season win total facing the NFL’s most difficult schedule. After opening at home against the Broncos and Chiefs, Oakland won’t play another home game until Nov. 3. The ridiculous road trip will include games at Minnesota and Green Bay and a bout with the Bears in London.

Will the Oakland Raiders make the playoffs? (Yes +525, No -750)

— Hill: No

This is a massive price to lay, but there’s good reason. With two prohibitive favorites to make the postseason in the division, the Raiders face an uphill battle to qualify.

— Simmons: No

Unfortunately for Raiders fans, this is pretty much a lock. With the Chiefs a favorite to come out of the AFC, the Chargers solid despite an aging quarterback and a Broncos team that should have a strong defense under Vic Fangio, it’s going to be really hard for the Raiders to finish above third place in their division. And that would mean, in all likelihood, missing the playoffs.

— Dewey: No

Four games against the Chiefs and Chargers, four against the rugged NFC North (Bears, Vikings, Packers, Lions) and four against the solid AFC South (Texans, Jaguars, Titans, Colts) will make it tough for the Raiders to reach their win total of six, let alone reach the postseason.

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