Raiders QB controversy? Carr props lowered because of Mariota

Derek Carr has started 94 of a possible 96 regular-season games for the Raiders in his six-year NFL career.

If the Las Vegas quarterback continues his stranglehold on the starting job next season, he should have no problem topping his props at the Westgate sportsbook for gross passing yards (3,099½) and touchdown passes (17½).

But the Westgate, which posted 20 Raiders player props, is banking on quarterback Marcus Mariota cutting into Carr’s playing time this year. The Raiders signed the former Heisman Trophy winner and Tennessee Titans QB in March to a two-year, $17.6 million contract.

“If they’re a sub-.500 team at some point, unless Carr’s playing lights out, we do think they will make a change at quarterback, just to see what Mariota brings them,” Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “That was definitely baked into the numbers.”

Carr threw for 4,054 yards and 21 TDs last season and has averaged 3,799 passing yards and 24 TDs in his career.

The prop total on Carr’s interceptions is 8½. He threw eight picks last season and has averaged 10.3 interceptions in his career, throwing 10 or more in four seasons.

The Westgate put up props for receptions and receiving yards for tight end Darren Waller, rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III and wideouts Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams and Nelson Agholor.

Waller had 90 catches and 1,145 receiving yards in a breakout season last year. His prop totals at the Westgate are 69½ receptions and 799½ receiving yards.

“They’ve got four new receivers on the team this year to spread the wealth,” Salmons said. “I don’t think (coach Jon) Gruden’s going to stand for Carr just dumping the ball to his tight end for completions.

“Carr’s problem is he’s been Captain Checkdown. His completion percentage was 70 percent last year. But throwing the ball to a running back or tight end five yards down the field is not doing you any good. Drafting Ruggs, they’re looking for some home runs.”

The prop totals for Ruggs, the fastest receiver in April’s NFL draft, are 45½ receptions and 699½ receiving yards at the Westgate and 5 TD catches at Caesars Entertainment.

Running back Josh Jacobs rushed for 1,149 yards and scored seven TDs in his rookie year last season. His prop totals for next season are nearly identical at 1,150 rushing yards and 7½ TDs.

“We like Jacobs a lot. We think he’s a tremendous offensive weapon,” Salmons said. “But he did get hurt last year at the end of the year. With these football props, guys get hurt all the time. One injury, you miss a couple games and it’s hard to get to that number.

“Our philosophy is to try not to make it too high. But if you’re going to bet the over, he’s going to have to play at least 15 or 16 games to go over that number. It’s a big number.”

The Westgate also posted sack and combined tackles props for Raiders defensive ends Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby.

The sack total is 5½ for each player. Ferrell had 4½ sacks last season and Crosby had 10. But as Salmons pointed out, Crosby had four sacks in one game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

“That was a really inflated number last year,” he said.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.