Peyton poised to thrive
All sorts of potential problems faced Peyton Manning going into this season. He was coming back from a serious neck injury, his arm strength was lacking, and he had to develop a rhythm with a new group of wide receivers, just to name a few issues.
Manning has solved every problem, and he might be the NFL’s leading candidate for Most Valuable Player with five weeks remaining.
The Denver Broncos (8-3) can clinch the AFC West title today by beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who make for a nice comeback story, too.
A year after going 4-12, Tampa Bay is 6-5 and in the hunt for an NFC wild-card spot. Even better, as far as bettors are concerned, the Buccaneers are a league-best 7-2-2 against the spread.
“The Buccaneers have been a covering machine, and everybody has been on them, but they are playing a little above their head,” Las Vegas handicapper Mike Scalleat said. “Denver has to keep winning to stay up there with Houston and New England in the AFC.”
Scalleat, who finished fourth in the LVH SuperContest in 2007, said the price is right to back Manning and the Broncos as 7-point home favorites.
Tampa Bay, inexperienced at both cornerback spots, has been torched through the air all season and allowed 353 yards passing to Matt Ryan in a 24-23 loss to Atlanta last week.
“I think Manning will have a big game. This is the type of defense he can pick apart,” Scalleat said. “The Tampa Bay secondary is weak, so Manning can do some damage. The Denver defense is also tougher at home at altitude.”
Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is turning in a strong season, but his numbers don’t quite stack up to those of Manning, who has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 3,260 yards and 26 touchdowns.
Scalleat scouts the rest of today’s Week 13 schedule:
■ Seattle at Chicago (-3½): I know the Seahawks are a bad road team, but they get in a lot of close games, and I think you’ve got to take the points. The Bears have injuries on their offensive line, and wide receiver Devin Hester is out with a concussion. Marshawn Lynch can run on the Chicago defense, and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson is playing well for Seattle.
■ Minnesota at Green Bay (-8): Teams are running more on the Packers, who allow 103.8 yards per game on the ground, so Adrian Peterson could have a big day. Green Bay was blown out last week and is laying a big number here. I rarely play Minnesota, but I will in this spot.
■ San Francisco (-7) at St. Louis: 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh wants to show he made the right decision by going with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. Harbaugh will be looking to put up some points. These teams tied three weeks ago, but Rams quarterback Sam Bradford looks good one week and not so hot the next week. The San Francisco defense is too strong for Bradford. I like the 49ers.
■ Arizona at New York Jets (-4½): The Jets are bad, but I like them in this spot. The Cardinals are starting third-stringer Ryan Lindley at quarterback, and the Jets’ defense should turn him over a couple of times. This situation sets up for Mark Sanchez to bounce back and for the Jets to grind out a win at home against an ugly underdog.
■ Carolina (-3) at Kansas City: In light of Saturday’s murder-suicide involving Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher, this game is difficult to handicap because of the emotional factor. Cam Newton and the Panthers played well Monday, but scoring 30 points against Philadelphia is no big deal. These are two bad offensive teams. Carolina ranks 19th in total offense, and Kansas City ranks 21st. I’ll play this under the total (40½).
■ Indianapolis at Detroit (-5): After a bad beat on Thanksgiving, the Lions look good in this spot. Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck plays a lot better at home than he does on the road, where he has four touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. I might not bet this game, but if I do, it will be the Detroit side.
■ Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6): How can the Bills be laying six points to anyone? Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has 18 touchdown passes and 15 turnovers (11 interceptions, four fumbles), is hot and cold. Buffalo makes too many mistakes to be trusted as a favorite. Chad Henne stepped in at quarterback and has the Jaguars’ offense moving. I think Jacksonville will hang close.
■ New England (-7½) at Miami: The Patriots have Houston and San Francisco the next two weeks, so I can’t lay the points. New England might not go all out with two bigger games coming up. I put the Patriots on a teaser at minus-1. I lean to this going under the high total (51½) even though Tom Brady, who has 12 touchdown passes with no interceptions in his past four games, is putting up big numbers.
■ Houston (-6½) at Tennessee: This is a funny spot for the Texans, who have the Patriots on deck. Houston won the first meeting 38-14, but that was Sept. 30. The Texans did not play well the past two weeks in overtime victories over Detroit and Jacksonville. I’ll take the Titans.
■ Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-8): After what we saw last week from Charlie Batch, I would have to lay the points. The Steelers’ offense was terrible behind Batch, who can’t throw the ball. Pittsburgh (6-5) can lose this game but still make a run for a playoff spot when Ben Roethlisberger comes back. Batch is too weak, so I’ll go out on a limb and side with the Ravens.
■ Cleveland (-2½) at Oakland: I don’t like the way rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden is playing, and I can’t lay points with the Browns on the road. This is a bad spot for Cleveland, because teams seem to be beat up and sluggish the week after playing the Steelers. The Raiders have a lot of problems, but Carson Palmer might bounce back after a bad game at Cincinnati. I’ll take a shot with Oakland as a home ‘dog.
■ Cincinnati (-2) at San Diego: I’m going to go with the hot team, and that’s the Bengals. This is a big game for them. Andy Dalton has 23 touchdown passes, 10 to A.J. Green, and that combination has the Cincinnati offense clicking. The Chargers’ offensive line is weak, so the Bengals are going to put pressure on Philip Rivers. After blowing the game against Baltimore last week, you don’t know if San Diego is going to show up.
■ Philadelphia at Dallas (-10½): The Eagles normally play the Cowboys tough in Dallas, winning the past two years there. Bryce Brown had 178 yards rushing against Carolina, and rookie quarterback Nick Foles is showing a little improvement each week for Philadelphia. I can’t lay 10 points with Tony Romo, no matter who the Cowboys are playing, because they don’t cover at home. It’s not a strong opinion, but I’ll take the underdog.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
