No value in home ‘dog Georgia against superior South Carolina
We often see college football numbers in the second week reflect an overreaction to the results of Week 1. On that note, some might find Georgia attractive as a home underdog for just the third time during coach Mark Richt’s 11-year tenure.
Don’t count me among those embracing that notion, however. I’m not backing South Carolina as a 3-point favorite just because I think the Bulldogs looked like garbage in a 35-21 loss to Boise State.
Truth be told, the Broncos have won seven of eight meetings against Bowl Championship Series conference foes on Chris Petersen’s watch, and I had Boise State sixth in my preseason power ratings, compared with Georgia at No. 16.
I’m taking Steve Spurrier’s team between the hedges because the Gamecocks are better, plain and simple. I thought that going into the season and have seen nothing to change my mind.
The two best players on the field will be running back Marcus Lattimore and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who helped South Carolina overcome a 17-0 deficit to beat East Carolina 56-37 a week ago in Charlotte, N.C.
The Gamecocks are 6-3 against the spread as road favorites under Spurrier. The Bulldogs have failed to cover in both home ‘dog spots under Richt, who could own the hottest seat in the nation by tonight.
Four more plays for today (home team in CAPS):
■ FLORIDA (-23) over Alabama-Birmingham — Like his old boss, former Georgia offensive coordinator Neil Callaway doesn’t have much job security going into his fifth season as UAB coach. The Gators won’t help Callaway’s cause. With quarterback John Brantley looking much more comfortable in Charlie Weis’ pro-style offense, Florida rolled to a 41-3 victory over Florida Atlantic as a 35-point favorite.
Brantley has a slew of weapons, including speedsters Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, both of whom missed several games last year because of suspensions and injuries.
■ Oregon State-WISCONSIN (Over 57) — Off a 29-28 loss to Sacramento State, things get much tougher for the Beavers. Wisconsin looked great in racing to a 51-3 lead over UNLV, only for the Badgers’ backups to allow a backdoor cover.
Instead of eating the 20½ points of chalk with the Badgers, the play is over the total. With the power running game led by Montee Ball and James White, quarterback Russell Wilson can stretch the field with play-action opportunities. I’m looking for at least 45 to 48 points from Wisconsin’s offense, and I’m not sold on its defense.
■ TENNESSEE (-5) over Cincinnati — The Bearcats have excellent players in quarterback Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead, but they won’t have any answers for a Volunteers offense led by a rising star, sophomore QB Tyler Bray. Tennessee will win by 10 to 17.
■ Fresno State (+28) over NEBRASKA — Although coach Pat Hill’s program isn’t packing as much punch as it once did, Fresno State should cover in this spot. The Bulldogs have an underrated running back in Robbie Rouse and will be more athletic than a Chattanooga defense that the Cornhuskers scored 40 points on last week.
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.