NFL’s Cardinals undervalued at home
If quarterbacks are judged primarily by wins and losses, Michael Vick should be considered one of the NFL’s elite after leading the Philadelphia Eagles to a 2-0 start. But there is more to consider, of course.
The Eagles easily could be 0-2, winning each game by one point, and they lead the league with nine turnovers. Vick has accounted for seven, with six interceptions and a lost fumble.
Despite its flaws, Philadelphia still is getting enough respect in the betting market to be favored by at least a field goal today at Arizona. The line is 3 and 3½ at Las Vegas sports books.
The Cardinals, who have two wins by a total of six points, were double-digit underdogs in their 20-18 victory at New England a week ago.
“I think Philadelphia has been a little fortunate early on, and I think the Cardinals have absolutely earned it,” said Mike Colbert, vice president of Cantor Gaming sports books. “No one goes to New England and wins, and I don’t want to say they did it easy, but the Cardinals shut down Tom Brady for 58 minutes and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that happen.
“We actually think this game should be right around a pick’em. I think the public will be on Philly, but I think the sharp money will be on the Cardinals.”
In the Cardinals’ upset of the Patriots, star receiver Larry Fitzgerald had only one catch. Fitzgerald figures to be a bigger factor against a Philadelphia defense that Colbert called “just average.”
Kevin Kolb, the Eagles’ starting quarterback before Vick took his job two years ago, has been a disappointment in Arizona. But the Cardinals have won nine of their past 11 games. Four of the victories were in overtime and the other five were decided by six points or fewer.
Colbert’s best bet of the week is Arizona as a home ‘dog.
“I think Vick will end up being a problem. You just can’t win big games turning the ball over like that. Turnovers are the Eagles’ issue, and Arizona is a team prone to get turnovers,” Colbert said. “I think Kolb has been rejuvenated a little bit.”
Colbert breaks down the rest of today’s Week 3 schedule:
■ St. Louis at Chicago (-7): We’ve taken some big bets on this game, and they have taken our 7½s and laid our 7s. Therefore, we’re at 7 minus-120 and I expect the number to stay there. The Rams have been pretty impressive, so I think anything over a touchdown is probably the right side.
■ Tampa Bay at Dallas (-8½): We opened this at 7 minus-115, and we’re now at 8½. There definitely has been some sharp money on Dallas. It’s probably situational. The Buccaneers are coming off a heartbreaking loss at New York, and now they go on the road again. The Cowboys are coming off a bad loss at Seattle, and that’s an angle we like at Cantor. We like a team off a bad loss on the road and now they come home. I do agree with the line move. We do like Dallas to win and win big. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is good when he has time to throw. If you get pressure on Romo, he’s a disaster. But I don’t believe Tampa’s pass rush is that good, so I think he’ll have a big game this week.
■ San Francisco (-6½) at Minnesota: The 49ers are the best team in the NFL right now. We make them a favorite over everybody on a neutral field. The Vikings are coming off a road loss and now they come home as a ‘dog. We have taken some Minnesota money. We opened it 7 and now we’re at 6½, but I do expect this to get bet back up to 7. San Francisco has been an unbelievably popular public team. I do think the spot sets up as good as it could for Minnesota. I don’t have much of an opinion on the game, but it won’t surprise me if the 49ers go there and win by two touchdowns.
■ Detroit (-4) at Tennessee: We opened this game at 3 and some sharp money showed up on Detroit. The Titans have been horrible. We needed Tennessee last week against San Diego, and that was one of the most painful games I’ve watched. I could not lay 4 points with the Lions on the road against anybody, but we have taken some pretty big Detroit money.
■ Cincinnati at Washington (-3): We opened this game at 4, and we’ve taken quite a bit of Cincinnati money. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon is probably out for the Redskins, and I think that hurts them because he and Robert Griffin III have a pretty good thing going. I’m a big fan of Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who looks like an up-and-coming star. So I think the line move is right, and I lean to Cincinnati.
■ New York Jets (-2½) at Miami: This is an interesting game. We did take some Miami money. I expect there to be Jets money at some point. I like the Jets, and I think you will get their ‘A’ game.
■ Kansas City at New Orleans (-9): Something tells me the Saints will not go 0-3 and you will get their best effort. I have absolutely no respect for the Chiefs right now, and to me they look like one of the three worst teams in football. I think you will see a very inspired performance, and I expect New Orleans to win in a rout.
■ Buffalo (-2½) at Cleveland: The Bills did look good last week, although it was against Kansas City. The Browns lost on the road last week and now are home ‘dogs, and we really like that angle, so I lean to Cleveland. There are some 3s out there, so especially at 3 I think the Browns are the right side.
■ Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3): I think both of these teams are in the bottom five of the league. The Jaguars offense is hard to watch. I like the under (43½) in this game. If I had to pick a side, I would take Indianapolis. Andrew Luck, the Colts’ rookie quarterback, has been OK. He hasn’t been bad. The expectations for him were probably a little higher. But I have no doubts about him. I am very confident he’s going to be a top quarterback in the league for a lot of years.
■ Atlanta at San Diego (-3): I really like this Falcons team, and I like them in this game. They are a road-tested veteran team. I think the Chargers are an inflated team right now. I would still say the Chargers don’t make the playoffs. I see they are basically the favorites to win the AFC West now, and I’m hearing a lot of hype around the Chargers, but I don’t think it’s warranted. Their first two wins against Oakland and Tennessee are what they are, and I think this week they get exposed.
■ Houston (-2) at Denver: This may be the best game of the day. The Broncos lost a tough one on the road and now they come home as a small ‘dog. I like Denver to give the Texans their first loss. I don’t think the Houston offense is hitting on all cylinders yet. I’m not concerned about Peyton Manning. I do think this will be a close game and the Broncos will win it.
■ Pittsburgh (-3½) at Oakland: I like the Raiders in this one. The Steelers are still banged up. Two of their best defensive players, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu, are out, and so is running back Rashard Mendenhall. The line is coming down. We opened it at 4½. I think it’s a good spot for Oakland.
■ New England at Baltimore (-1½): I like the Patriots a lot in this game, and we’re seeing quite a bit of Patriots money. I’m really not that high on the Ravens. I don’t think this team is as good as the rest of the market does. Coming off a loss, the Patriots are being a little undervalued here. I think New England should be a 1- or 1½-point favorite. This is my second-best bet.
COMPILED BY MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
