NFL Week 5 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Joe D’Amico, @JoeDamicoWins

Raiders (2-2) at Broncos (2-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m., Fox

Line/total: Broncos -3, 36

Analysis: Off-field headlines surrounding Raiders coach Antonio Pierce and star wide receiver Davante Adams would normally be a distraction for any NFL team. But our Raiders are no strangers to distractions. Plus, they enter this matchup knowing they have dominated the Denver Broncos, taking nine of the last 10 meetings straight-up and against the spread. Gone are the days when Denver was money in Mile High, covering just six of its last 17 at home. Maxx Crosby is questionable to return from a high ankle sprain. If he plays, I expect him to make his presence known and wreak havoc on young Broncos quarterback Bo Nix.

Pick: Raiders 24, Broncos 17

Jets (2-2) vs. Vikings (4-0), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Vikings -2½, 40½

Analysis: Jets quarterback Aaron Rogers has put up some respectable numbers. But New York is averaging only 19.0 points per game, and without a solid rushing attack to keep defenses honest, the Jets are hurting. Minnesota isn’t just 4-0 in the standings, it has also covered all four games. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is having an incredible season, throwing for 932 yards and 11 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Minnesota running back Aaron Jones (321 rushing yards) will control the clock and the tempo, keeping the Jets’ defense on the field and their own lax pass defense off it. Another factor here is turnovers. New York’s defense has only one takeaway, while Minnesota has snagged eight interceptions.

Pick: Vikings 24, Jets 17

Panthers (1-3) at Bears (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bears -4, 41

Analysis: Chicago is in the midst of its best home winning streak in nearly 20 years, winning seven straight at Soldier Field for the NFL’s longest active streak. But I just can’t see this team laying more than a field goal to any visitor. Since veteran quarterback Andy Dalton took the helm for Carolina, the Panthers have scored 60 points in two games. I don’t think they’ll have the same success in Chicago, but you can expect a tight, low-scoring game.

Pick: Bears 17, Panthers 16

Ravens (2-2) at Bengals (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -2½, 48½

Analysis: Normally I would look to fade a team like Baltimore, coming off back-to-back high-profile victories on the road at Dallas, then last week at home against Buffalo. And many might jump on the Cincinnati bandwagon after it finally got off the schneid in last week’s win at Carolina. But the Bengals have yet to win or cover at home this season, and they’re on a 4-10 slide against the AFC straight-up and 5-9 ATS. The Ravens won and covered both meetings last season, and they do it again here.

Pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 20

Bills (3-1) at Texans (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m., CBS

Line/total: Texans -1, 47

Analysis: The general public moved this line 3½ points in the direction of the Texans. That is enough for me to fade them here. While both teams are off to 3-1 starts, neither has beaten any top-rated opponents. Josh Allen and the Bills don’t take losing lightly, and must come back here with a vengeance from their lopsided loss at Baltimore if they’re going to have a successful regular season. What better opponent to face than a Houston team that has problems with the AFC East (0-6, 1-5 ATS in past six).

Pick: Bills 27, Texans 24

Colts (2-2) at Jaguars (0-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Jaguars -3, 45

Analysis: Trends and streaks play a part in handicapping the NFL, and Jacksonville has won and covered its last eight home games in this division rivalry. But the Jaguars own an offense tied for 29th in the league with only 15.0 ppg, while possessing a defense that ranks 30th, allowing 27.3 ppg. If Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (questionable) plays, or it’s Joe Flacco under center, please remember Indianapolis is still running hot, winning and covering two straight.

Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17

Dolphins (1-3) at Patriots (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -1, 36

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the Sunday card to handicap. Between injuries, poor coaching and inconsistent play, there are better games on the board to put our money on. The Dolphins have covered seven straight in this matchup, but they have also failed to cover seven straight overall. Scoring will be at a premium.

Pick: Patriots 14, Dolphins 13

Browns (1-3) at Commanders (3-1)

Time: 1o a.m.

Line/total: Commanders -3, 43

Analysis: Cleveland is supposed to be getting some pieces back in its puzzle this week. But is that enough to take the Browns on the road against a Washington team riding a three-game win and cover streak? While the Browns’ defense hasn’t been that bad, they still rank last in the NFL in takeaways with zero, and must face the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. On the flip side, quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ offense can’t do anything right, turning the ball over five times while scoring a mere 16.5 ppg. The Commanders have the fewest turnovers in the NFL with only one. Not crazy about laying a field goal with Washington. But it beats the alternative.

Pick: Commanders 21, Browns 16

Cardinals (1-3) at 49ers (2-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -7, 49

Analysis: San Francisco has won and covered both games at home this season, and despite being a bit banged up, the 49ers enter this matchup with confidence that they have won and covered the last four meetings. The over is on a 5-0 run in this NFC West matchup. If the line goes up, take the underdog. If it goes down, take the favorite. No question, there will be lots of scoring.

Pick: 49ers 31, Cardinals 24

Packers (2-2) at Rams (1-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Packers -3, 48½

Analysis: Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love will shake off the injury rust here against a Rams scoring defense ranked 31st in the league, getting shredded for 28.8 ppg. Their pass defense is porous, but their rush defense is even worse, ranking last in the league at 165.5 rushing yards allowed per game. That does not bode well for Los Angeles lining up against the league’s explosive No. 2-ranked rushing attack (174.5 ypg). To throw gas on the fire, Green Bay is also on a 10-0 ATS run against the Rams.

Pick: Packers 30, Rams 24

Giants (1-3) at Seahawks (3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Seahawks -7, 42½

Analysis: On paper, everything tells us to lay the points with Seattle. But I did my homework. The last time the Seahawks won and covered as a favorite of seven points or more was Dec. 12, 2021. I know the Giants are just horrible. And normally, I wouldn’t mind laying a touchdown with the home favorite in a matchup like this. But Seattle has San Francisco coming up on a short week, then a road game in Atlanta, before coming back home and playing Buffalo. Can you say look-ahead mode?

Pick: Seahawks 23, Giants 17

Cowboys (2-2) at Steelers (3-1)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Steelers -3, 43½

Analysis: If you’re like me, and you grew up in the 1970s, this was the premier matchup in the NFL. Dallas’ two victories have come on the road, while Pittsburgh comes off its first loss of the season. The Steelers’ offense has steadily improved, despite the defeat last week at Indianapolis. Pittsburgh can exploit the struggling Cowboys, who are missing some major players on both sides of the ball, but might not cover this number.

Pick: Steelers 21, Cowboys 20

Saints (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Chiefs -5½, 43

Analysis: You can’t ask for a better Monday night matchup. Both teams come in here covering three of their four games this season. It’s no secret the Chiefs have played four one-score games, and Kansas City is dealing with some injuries. But one way or another, the two-time defending Super Bowl champions always find a way to win.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Saints 21