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NFL betting breakdown: wild-card playoffs

Raiders (10-7) at Bengals (10-7)

— Time: 1:30 p.m. Saturday, KSNV-3

— Line/total: Bengals -5½, 49

— Analysis: The betting market has leaned toward the Raiders, with the line slipping from 6½ to 5½, but other factors line up behind Cincinnati. The Bengals took a de facto bye in Week 18, they’re playing at home in cold weather against a dome team, and they already pulled away in the fourth quarter to beat the Raiders 32-13 this season in Las Vegas.

— By the numbers: The Raiders have the worst point differential of any team in the playoffs (-65). The Steelers are the only other team with a negative differential (-55). … The Raiders are on a four-game winning streak, tied with the Bills for the longest of any playoff team.

— Pick: Bengals 27, Raiders 16

Patriots (10-7) at Bills (11-6)

— Time: 5:15 p.m. Saturday, KLAS-8

— Line/total: Bills -4½, 44

— Analysis: The AFC East rivals split two games in December, with each winning on the road. The rubber match — or at least the cover in the rubber match — could be decided in the first half in frigid conditions. The Bills have won four straight, but started slowly in three of those wins before putting away a not exactly Murderers’ Row of the Panthers, Falcons and Jets. If the Patriots can keep the game close early, rookie quarterback Mac Jones can stay in his comfort zone and perhaps lead the Patriots to victory. If the Bills get up by 10, they’re advancing.

— By the numbers: Are these the best two teams in the AFC? They have the two best point differentials (Bills +194, Patriots +159), and the Bills are second and the Patriots fourth in the NFL in the highly respected Football Outsiders DVOA metric (defense-adjusted value over average). The Chiefs are seventh and the No. 1 seed Titans a stunning 20th in DVOA.

— Pick: Bills 16, Patriots 13

Eagles (9-8) at Buccaneers (13-4)

— Time: 10 a.m. Sunday, KVVU-5

— Line/total: Buccaneers -8½, 46

— Analysis: On paper, this should be a ho-hum win for defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead at Philadelphia in October before cruising to a 28-22 win. Of course, a similar scenario Sunday will have Eagles +8½ bettors heading to the window. A rainy forecast and injuries to Tampa Bay receivers could help Philadelphia at least cover.

— By the numbers: The Eagles are 6-3 on the road but 3-5 at home. However, the Buccaneers are 7-1 at home, second to the Packers (8-0).

— Pick: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21

49ers (10-7) at Cowboys (12-5)

— Time: 1:30 p.m. Sunday, KLAS-8, Nickelodeon

— Line/total: Cowboys -3, 51

— Analysis: The number screams San Francisco, as casual bettors can be expected to pound the Cowboys giving only 3 at home. Sportsbooks don’t tend to give away free money. As the cliche goes, this game will be won in the trenches. If the Cowboys can slow the 49ers’ ground game, Dallas should advance. If San Francisco runs wild, this will be a back-and-forth game that the Cowboys might not like.

— By the numbers: The Cowboys are No. 1 in DVOA and have the best point differential in the NFL at +172. … The 49ers have been better on the road (6-3 vs. 4-4 at home).

— Pick: Cowboys 24, 49ers 23

Steelers (9-7-1) at Chiefs (12-5)

— Time: 5:15 p.m. Sunday, KSNV-3

— Line/total: Chiefs -12½, 46

— Analysis: The Steelers willed their way into the postseason by winning three of their final four, but is there any reason to think Sunday’s game will be any different from Pittsburgh’s one loss in that stretch, a 36-10 victory by the Chiefs? The Steelers simply struggle to score, and it’s hard to imagine them keeping the game close unless Kansas City turns the ball over.

— By the numbers: The Steelers rank 24th in DVOA, the worst of any playoff team. … Pittsburgh is the only road team on wild-card weekend with a losing record on the road (3-5).

— Pick: Chiefs 34, Steelers 16

Cardinals (11-6) at Rams (12-5)

— Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

— Line/total: Rams -4, 49½

— Analysis: Each of the NFC West rivals won in the other’s building this season (Cardinals 37-20 in October, Rams 30-23 in December), but the teams seem to be headed in opposite directions. The Rams won five straight before losing a 17-0 lead and falling to the 49ers in overtime Sunday. The Cardinals lost four of their final five. It’s hard not to favor Rams coach Sean McVay over Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury in a big game, though the backdoor probably will be wide open for a late Arizona cover.

— By the numbers: The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road. … The Rams are fifth in DVOA to the Cardinals’ 10th, and the Cardinals fall to 16th when DVOA is weighted toward more recent games.

— Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 20

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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