NFL betting breakdown: Week 6
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL
Dolphins (1-4) at Jaguars (0-5), London
Time: 6:30 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Dolphins -3, 47
Analysis: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will start for Miami, but the Dolphins are missing cornerback Xavien Howard and wide receivers DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. The Jaguars will be without starting center Brandon Linder and linebacker Myles Jack. Jacksonville is in the top 10 in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed and is 11th-best in applying pressure on the quarterback. Miami is 25th in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed and is in the bottom 10 in applying pressure on the quarterback. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence should have time to throw the ball.
By the numbers: Jacksonville qualifies as a play based on a system that winless teams are 143-91-8 ATS (61.1 percent) as underdogs from Week 6 on against teams with a win percentage of .800 or less.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Dolphins 22
Texans (1-4) at Colts (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -10, 43½
Analysis: Houston and Indianapolis are the bottom two teams in the league in applying pressure on the quarterback. They also rank in the bottom 10 in allowing pass plays of 20 yards or more. The Colts do appear to be playing better the last few games with an easy win at Miami and an overtime loss at Baltimore on Monday night. But this is a big number for a below average team to be laying.
By the numbers: Home teams with a win percentage of .600 or less favored by more than six points are not profitable plays when playing a below .500 team coming off a loss. The Texans qualify as a play based on that premise, which is 209-115-7 ATS (64.5 percent).
Pick: Colts 25, Texans 17
Packers (4-1) at Bears (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Packers -6, 44
Analysis: Chicago is last in the league in generating pass plays of 20 yards or more, and Green Bay is fifth-best. The Bears rank 31st in sacks allowed (18) and are fifth-worst in applying pressure on the quarterback. Green Bay should hit more big plays while putting pressure on Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields, and Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should have time to throw.
By the numbers: Chicago has won eight of its last 10 games against losing teams, but is 3-8 against winning teams, including 20-point losses to the Rams and Browns this season.
Pick: Packers 26, Bears 20
Chiefs (2-3) at Washington (2-3)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 54
Analysis: The Kansas City offense continues to thrive, but its defense is almost as bad as the offense is good. The Chiefs lead the league in pass success rate, while Washington is ninth-worst in pass success rate allowed. The Football Team is fourth-best in run success rate, and Kansas City is second-worst in run success rate allowed. Washington should be able to run the ball, and the Chiefs should be able to throw. Passing usually wins out in the NFL, so advantage Chiefs.
By the numbers: Kansas City has allowed 29 points or more in every game. … Washington has allowed 29 points or more in each of its last four games.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Football Team 26
Vikings (2-3) at Panthers (3-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Vikings -2½, 46
Analysis: Minnesota and Carolina are the NFL’s top two teams in pressure rate on defense. Both teams are in the top 10 in pass success rate allowed, with Carolina No. 1. The Vikings are hitting the road after three straight home games. In Minnesota’s first two road games, it allowed 27 and 34 points.
By the numbers: The Panthers qualify as a play based on the system that home underdogs of three points or less coming off a loss as a favorite of more than two points are 80-37-9 ATS (68.3 percentage) if their win percentage is .600 or less.
Pick: Panthers 21, Vikings 20
Chargers (4-1) at Ravens (4-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -2½, 51
Analysis: Baltimore averages 4.9 yards per rush, and Los Angeles allows 5.6 yards per rush. Baltimore is 10th-worst in allowing pressure on the quarterback, and the Chargers are 10th-best in applying pressure on the QB. The Ravens should be able to run the ball, and LA should be able to throw. The Chargers are the seventh-best in pass success rate, and the Ravens are in the middle of the pack (16th) at pass success rate allowed.
By the numbers: With Justin Herbert at quarterback, seven of the Chargers’ last nine road games have totaled 50 points or more.
Pick: Ravens 28, Chargers 25
Bengals (3-2) at Lions (0-5)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bengals -3½, 47
Analysis: Cincinnati is the eighth-best team in the league in producing pass plays of 20 yards or more, and the Lions are the worst in allowing pass plays of 20 yards or more. Detroit has scored 17 points or fewer in four straight games.
By the numbers: The Lions qualify as a play based on a system that winless teams are 143-91-8 ATS (61.1 percent) as underdogs from Week 6 on against teams with a win percentage of .800 or less. … Detroit has lost 14 straight games as a home underdog.
Pick: Bengals 24, Lions 20
Rams (4-1) at Giants (1-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -8, 48½
Analysis: The Rams lead the league in fewest sacks allowed (four), and the Giants are third-worst in generating pressure on the quarterback. Both teams are above average throwing the ball but below average defending the pass.
By the numbers: New York is mired in a 7-18 ATS slide as a home underdog. … Under coach Sean McVay, Los Angeles has scored 30 points or more in eight of its nine games as a road favorite of six points or more. The Rams are 7-2 ATS in those games.
Pick: Rams 31, Giants 23
Cardinals (5-0) at Browns (3-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Browns -3½, 48½
Analysis: Cleveland averages 5.4 yards per rush, and Arizona allows 5.4 yards per rush. Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury will miss this game after testing positive for COVID-19, along with defensive tackle Zach Allen and linebacker Chandler Jones.
By the numbers: With Kyler Murray at quarterback, Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Pick: Browns 26, Cardinals 23
Raiders (3-2) at Broncos (3-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Broncos -4, 44
Analysis: How will the Raiders respond in their first game without coach Jon Gruden since 2017? Both teams are below average on offense, relative to the opponents they have played, and above average on defense.
By the numbers: The final score has totaled 44 points or fewer in eight of Denver’s last nine games as a home favorite. … The final score has totaled 43 points or fewer in five of the Raiders’ last seven games as road underdogs.
Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 17
Cowboys (4-1) at Patriots (2-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -3, 50½
Analysis: Dallas ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in generating pass plays of 20 yards or more. New England is 11th-worst in allowing pass plays of 20 yards or more. The Cowboys are on the road for the first time since Week 2.
By the numbers: The Patriots qualify as a play based on the system that road favorites of six points or less are 42-76-3 ATS (35.6 percent) if, like the Cowboys, they‘re coming off a home win of 20 points or more.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Patriots 22
Seahawks (2-3) at Steelers (2-3)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Steelers -5, 43
Analysis: Geno Smith will take over at quarterback for Seattle for the injured Russell Wilson. Smith is about a 7-point drop-off to the point spread for the Seahawks. Seattle allows the fifth-highest percentage of sacks, and Pittsburgh is sixth-best in putting pressure on the quarterback.
By the numbers: The Seahawks are riding an 8-3-1 cover streak as road underdogs. But Seattle has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of those 12 games, and Wilson won’t be there to match the points the defense is likely to allow.
Pick: Steelers 24, Seahawks 17
Bills (4-1) at Titans (3-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Line/total: Bills -5½, 53½
Analysis: The Titans whipped Buffalo 42-16 at Tennessee last season. But both teams gained 5.4 yards per play, and the Bills were minus-three in turnover margin. All three of Buffalo’s turnovers happened deep in its own territory, and the Titans converted all three miscues into touchdowns. Tennessee wide receiver Julio Jones will return from injury. The Titans are second-worst in the league in allowing sacks, and Buffalo is seventh-best in putting pressure on the quarterback. Tennessee is the NFL’s fourth-worst team in producing pass plays of 20 yards or more, and Buffalo is the best in allowing the fewest pass plays of 20 yards or more.
By the numbers: With Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills have won eight of nine games as road favorites, with the loss at Tennessee last season. Buffalo went 6-3 ATS in those games. The Bills scored 28 points or more in seven of those games while allowing 23 points or more only three times.
Pick: Bills 30, Titans 20
