NFL betting breakdown: Week 5
Joe D’Amico, @joedamicowins, Aasiwins.com
Raiders (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Chiefs -11½, 55
Analysis: Patrick Mahomes and the well-balanced Chiefs offense (29.2 points per game) deserve all the praise they get. But it’s Kansas City’s defense — which ranks second in the league in scoring defense, yielding 17.5 ppg — that will shine against a Raiders offense that had problems with the Patriots and Bills in losses (0-2 ATS) the last two weeks. Derek Carr has an 0-6 record at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Las Vegas defense, which ranks in the bottom third in every major category (only four sacks and two takeaways) won’t be able to slow Mahomes.
By the numbers: Las Vegas is 0-4 ATS in its past four games at Kansas City, 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. the AFC and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. … The Chiefs are riding streaks of 8-0-1 ATS at home, 21-8-1 ATS vs. the AFC West and 18-7-1 ATS overall.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Raiders 17
Panthers (2-2) at Falcons (0-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -1, 53½
Analysis: Atlanta has found new ways to lose, while division rival Carolina is coming off wins and covers in its last two outings. Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater will exploit the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defense and further ignite the flame under Falcons coach Dan Quinn’s hot seat. Look for Carolina’s ball-hawking defense (seven takeaways) to create turnovers.
By the numbers: Atlanta is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite and on a 7-19 spread slide in October. … The Falcons are on a 6-1 over run vs. the NFC, and the Panthers are on a 4-0 over surge vs. the NFC South.
Pick: Panthers 31, Falcons 24
Rams (3-1) at Washington (1-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Rams -7, 46
Analysis: Kyle Allen will make his first start of the season against the improving Rams defense. Washington has no ground game, which will allow Los Angeles’ eighth-ranked pass defense to focus on the rusty Allen and the passing game. Look for a heavy dose of Rams running backs Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown to attack the lax Football Team run defense. That will open up the passing game for QB Jared Goff and pass catchers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds and Tyler Higbee.
By the numbers: The Rams are on a 14-4-1 ATS run vs. the NFC and 9-3 ATS on the road. … Washington is on a 1-4 ATS skid vs. the NFC and 2-8 ATS at home.
Pick: Rams 30, Football Team 17
Jaguars (1-3) at Texans (0-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Texans -5½, 54½
Analysis: Just because these teams are a combined 1-7 doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made. Team turmoil and the firing of coach/general manager Bill O’Brien will further distract a Houston team that can’t protect its quarterback, run the ball or force a turnover. Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew will dissect a Texans secondary that’s allowing a 71 percent completion percentage. The wrong team is favored.
By the numbers: The road team is 13-4-1 ATS in this series. … The Texans are 1-4 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS vs. the AFC.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Texans 24
Cardinals (2-2) at Jets (0-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Cardinals -7, 47
Analysis: Joe Flacco, 35, will start for New York, and running back Le’Veon Bell also is expected to be activated. Joe Namath and Emerson Boozer can return from the Jets’ Super Bowl III title team and it still wouldn’t be enough for me to back them. Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Kenyan Drake will team to run the ball effectively, and the Cardinals’ pass rush will exploit New York’s banged-up offensive line.
By the numbers: Arizona is on a 7-2-2 ATS uptick on the road and riding a 7-3-2 cover streak overall. …. New York is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games and on an 0-4 spread skid overall.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Jets 20
Eagles (1-2-1) at Steelers (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -7, 44
Analysis: The Steelers come in well-rested after an unscheduled bye week. QB Ben Roethlisberger (777 yards passing, seven TDs, one interception) and running back James Conner will move the chains with ease. But it will be Pittsburgh’s fifth-ranked scoring defense (19.3 ppga) that will wreak havoc on Philadelphia’s depleted offensive line and shaky Eagles QB Carson Wentz (seven interceptions). The Steelers sacked mobile QB Deshaun Watson five times in their last game.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS at home and 20-7-1 ATS in October. … The Eagles are 1-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Pick: Steelers 30, Eagles 17
Bengals (1-2-1) at Ravens (3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -12½, 50½
Analysis: Baltimore is a far better team. But laying double digits in the NFL is always risky, especially with division rivals. The Ravens have yet to hit their stride and have given up a lot of passing yards. Bengals QB Joe Burrow comes in as the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive outings. Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon will keep Baltimore’s defense honest, which will give Burrow room to work and keep this one closer than the spread.
By the numbers: The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. … The Bengals have covered five of their last six at Baltimore and are on a 10-4 ATS streak on the road. … The Ravens are 4-12 ATS as home favorites and 8-24-1 ATS in October.
Pick: Ravens 33, Bengals 23
Dolphins (1-3) at 49ers (2-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: 49ers -8, 50½
Analysis: Despite the return of tight end George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers are still banged up and short-handed. This is an ideal spot for Miami to catch San Francisco in a look-ahead situation. After this matchup, the 49ers face a brutal stretch against the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Rams and Bills. The Dolphins have showed some grit the last three weeks against Buffalo, Jacksonville and Seattle. They will catch the Niners looking ahead.
By the numbers: San Francisco is on a 7-20-1 spread slide as a home favorite and a 6-14 ATS skid in October. … Miami is on a 5-2 ATS surge on the road and 11-5 ATS overall.
Pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21
Giants (0-4) at Cowboys (1-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Cowboys -8½, 53½
Analysis: Why a team that has yet to cover this season is laying almost double digits is beyond me. Does it matter that QB Dak Prescott is on a record-setting pace if the Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th in yards allowed (430.5 ypg) and 32nd in scoring (36.5 ppga)? It obviously doesn’t matter too much when it results in a 1-3 record. Giants QB Daniel Jones helms the worst offense in football. But New York has ball carriers who showed signs of life last week in Wayne Gallman and Devonta Freeman. Until Dallas shows me something consistently, it’s a bet-against team.
By the numbers: The Giants are riding a 14-3 ATS streak on the road and are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. … The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS as home favorites and 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC.
Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Colts (3-1) at Browns (3-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Pick, 48
Analysis: The Colts have allowed the fewest yards and fewest points in the NFL. Granted, they haven’t faced the best offenses, and linebacker Darius Leonard is out for this game. But this is still a solid defense. Cleveland has one of the league’s poorest passing offenses but tops all teams in rushing. The difference will be the experience and savvy of Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers, who will pick apart the Browns’ porous pass defense.
By the numbers: Cleveland ranks 30th in passing yards, averaging 182.5. … Indianapolis has won eight of the last nine meetings. … The Browns are 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
Pick: Colts 27, Browns 24
Vikings (1-3) at Seahawks (4-0)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Seahawks -7, 56½
Analysis: A huge mistake in betting is judging a team solely on its last performance. Minnesota got its first win last week at winless Houston. The Vikings’ once-feared defense is getting steamrolled for 426.5 ypg and 31.3 ppg. They will not be able to slow QB Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, who have scored at least 31 points in every game. One of the few bright spots for Minnesota has been its running game. But Seattle is one of the best teams in the league at stuffing the run (75.8 ypg).
By the numbers: The Vikings are 0-4 ATS at Seattle and 6-15 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS this season. … The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Vikings 24
Broncos (1-3) at Patriots (2-2)
Time: 2 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Off
Analysis: It doesn’t say much for Denver when QB Cam Newton (coronavirus) will most likely miss Monday’s game and Jarrett Stidham is expected to make his first career start, and New England is still the better play. The Broncos scored 37 points against the Jets last week in their first win, but facing coach Bill Belichick and an angry Patriots defense is a whole different story. Brett Rypien is in for a long day in his first career start for Denver. With quarterback issues on both sides, expect a low-scoring game.
By the numbers: Denver is on an 0-5 spread skid at New England and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against the Patriots overall.
Pick: Patriots 24, Broncos 17
Chargers (1-3) at Saints (2-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN
Line/total: Saints -8½, 50
Analysis: The Chargers have been in every game, with each of their losses by seven points or fewer. Look for these teams to light up the scoreboard in a shootout between Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert and New Orleans’ 41-year old Drew Brees.
By the numbers: The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings. … The Chargers are on a 4-1 over surge, and the Saints have a 4-0 over-under record this season.
Pick: Saints 34, Chargers 27
Bills (4-0) at Titans (3-0)
Time: 4 p.m. Tuesday, KLAS-8
Line/total: Off
Analysis: The Titans, who are looking for payback from the last two meetings with the Bills, had an unexpected bye last week after a coronavirus outbreak. Expect an aerial assault, as both teams are throwing the ball well, with Buffalo ranking second in the league in passing yards (316.2 ypg) and Tennessee 11th (262.7 ypg). Both pass defenses rank in the bottom 11 of the league.
By the numbers: The Bills are 3-1 ATS this season, and the Titans are 0-3 ATS. … Buffalo has a 3-0-1 over-under record, and Tennessee has gone over in two of three games.
Pick: Bills 27, Titans 24
