NFL betting breakdown: Week 4
BETTING BREAKDOWN
Mark Franco, FrancoSports.com, Vegasinsider.com
Broncos (2-1) at Raiders (0-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Raiders -3, 45½
Analysis: Let’s face the facts. The Raiders have stunk so far this season. Making a playoff run after starting 0-3 is an uphill climb. Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett has seemed lost at times, but the Broncos are still 2-1 behind quarterback Russell Wilson.
By the numbers: Denver has lost the last four meetings and six of seven. … The Raiders are 0-3 against the spread this season and on a 1-7 spread slide as favorites. Tough one to call.
Pick: Denver 23, Raiders 21
Vikings (2-1) at Saints (1-2), London
Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN
Line/total: Vikings -3, 41½
Analysis: The Vikings overcame a double-digit deficit in last week’s win over the Lions, outscoring Detroit 14-0 in the fourth quarter. The Saints have played from behind in most of their first three games, and their offense has not looked good. New Orleans has committed the most turnovers in the NFL with nine, including eight in the last two games. QB Andy Dalton is likely to start for the Saints.
By the numbers: After Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in Minnesota’s season-opening win over Green Bay, the star receiver has totaled nine catches for 62 yards and no TDs the last two games. … The Saints are 0-3 ATS and riding an 8-2 under run.
Pick: Vikings 23, Saints 20
Browns (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Browns -1, 47½
Analysis: The Browns rank sixth in the league in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing at 190.7 yards per game after finishing fourth in the league in rushing last season. QB Jacoby Brissett has just one interception in 92 pass attempts and has played well. The Falcons also have gotten good play from new QB Marcus Mariota, who threw for 229 yards and a score last week in a 27-23 win at Seattle.
By the numbers: The Browns are on a 2-5 ATS skid in October. … The Falcons are on a 1-5 spread slide at home.
Pick: Browns 29, Falcons 22
Bills (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8
Line/total: Bills -3, 51
Analysis: Great matchup of AFC title contenders. The Bills have a long injury list and are piecing together their secondary against a Ravens team that can move the ball and score points on any defense. Baltimore’s pass defense has been terrible. The Ravens are giving up an average of 353.3 passing yards per game, which is the worst in the NFL. No other team has surrendered more than 300 passing ypg. Buffalo will feast on that in a high-scoring game.
By the numbers: The Bills are on a 6-1-1 ATS streak following a straight-up loss. … The Ravens are 2-9 ATS after covering the previous game. But they’re on a 13-5 ATS run after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. … The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Pick: Bills 34, Ravens 30
Commanders (1-2) at Cowboys (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5
Line/total: Cowboys -3, 41½
Analysis: The Cowboys will try to make it three straight wins when they host the struggling Commanders. Dallas QB Cooper Rush is the starter for the short term and has played well. The Cowboys are coming off a Monday night win at the Giants. The Commanders are just a mess, coming off consecutive losses to the Lions and Eagles.
By the numbers: Washington is on a 1-4 ATS skid on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. … The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings at Dallas. … The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. …Dallas is riding a 21-7 spread streak vs. the NFC East.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 20
Seahawks (1-2) at Lions (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Lions -3½, 48
Analysis: The Lions as a favorite is something we do not see too often. But they are the better team this week against the Seahawks. Detroit coach Dan Campbell has proved to be a good leader, and his team will run into a brick wall for him. The long-suffering Lions are a team anyone can root for. Detroit is coming off a loss to the Vikings in a game it should have won. Seattle has lost two straight and looked bad doing so. The Seahawks’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL, while the Lions are second in the league in scoring (31.7 ppg). That will show up in this one as Detroit gets back in the win column.
By the numbers: The Lions are riding a 14-6 cover streak under Campbell. … The Seahawks are 5-11 ATS on the road. … The Lions are on a 6-0 spread streak at home. … The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 21
Chargers (1-2) at Texans (0-2-1)
Time: 1o a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -5½, 45
Analysis: The Chargers have been hit hard by the injury bug with key players out on both sides of the ball. Chargers QB Justin Herbert was off his game last week in a 38-10 home loss to the Jaguars. The Texans are looking for their first win after a 20-20 tie against the Colts and consecutive road losses to the Broncos and Bears.
By the numbers: Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS following a double-digit home loss and on a 6-2-1 spread streak in October. … The Chargers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 21
Titans (1-2) at Colts (1-1-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -4, 43
Analysis: The Colts played their first good game last week, beating the Chiefs 20-17 for their first win. Tennessee also is coming off its first victory in a win over the Raiders. Titans RB Derrick Henry showed signs of his top form in compiling 143 yards from scrimmage. Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor is fourth in the league in rushing with 286 yards. This game will be decided by which team runs the ball better.
By the numbers: The Titans are on a 1-6 ATS skid following a straight-up win. … Tennessee has won and covered four of the last five meetings with Ryan Tannehill at QB. … The Colts are on an 8-0 under streak.
Pick: Colts 23, Titans 19
Bears (2-1) at Giants (2-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Giants -3, 39
Analysis: Giants coach Brian Daboll will turn the franchise around. But it will take time. Saquon Barkley seems to be back on track and can still be one of the best running backs in the NFC. He’s second in the NFL in all-purpose yards with 408, an average of 136 per game, and will have a big role against the Bears. I’m still not sold on QB Justin Fields or the anemic Bears offense (17.3 ppg).
By the numbers: Chicago is 1-11 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. … The Bears are on a 5-15 spread slide vs. the NFC. … The Giants are riding a 5-0 cover run when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. … New York is on a 12-3-1 ATS uptick in Week 4.
Pick: Giants 27, Bears 18
Jaguars (2-1) at Eagles (3-0)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -6½, 45½
Analysis: The Eagles are the NFL’s only undefeated team. They face their former coach Doug Pederson, who has the Jaguars off to a good start. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts is playing lights out with the NFL’s No. 1 offense (447.0 yards per game). Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is coming into his own and was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 262 yards and three TDs in a rout of the Chargers.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are on a 6-13 spread slide following a straight-up win of more than 14 points. … The Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Pick: Eagles 34, Jaguars 23
Jets (1-2) at Steelers (1-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Steelers -3½, 41½
Analysis: Jets QB Zach Wilson makes his first start of the season against the depleted Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is coming off a 29-17 loss to the Browns on Sept. 22. The Steelers’ secondary is hurting, so it will be interesting to see who has the edge in the passing game.
By the numbers: The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games. … The Steelers are 55-27-2 ATS in their last 84 games in October.
Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 17
Cardinals (1-2) at Panthers (1-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Pick, 43½
Analysis: The Panthers are coming off their first win, over the Saints, while the Cardinals are coming off a home loss to the Rams. Carolina QB Baker Mayfield has not played well, and RB Christian McCaffrey just cannot stay healthy. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has been average at best, but Arizona has the edge in this one.
By the numbers: The Cardinals are riding a 19-7-2 cover streak on the road and a 7-1 ATS run in October. … The Panthers are on a 3-14 spread slide and 1-6 ATS skid vs. the NFC.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Panthers 23
Patriots (1-2) at Packers (2-1)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Packers -9½, 40
Analysis: The New England Patriots will hit the road without starting QB Mac Jones. Veteran backup Brian Hoyer will get the start against a very good Packers defense. Green Bay has won two straight, including a 14-12 victory at Tampa Bay last week. The Packers held the Bucs to just 34 rushing yards on 14 carries. Green Bay leads the NFL in third-down defense, with opponents converting just 22.6 percent.
By the numbers: The Patriots are on an 0-4-1 ATS skid overall and are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. … The Packers are on an 8-1 cover streak after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. … Green Bay is riding a 9-1 ATS run at Lambeau Field.
Pick: Packers 34, Patriots 17
Chiefs (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)
Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3
Line/total: Pick, 45½
Analysis: This should be the best game of the week. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady square off in a rematch of the 2021 Super Bowl played at Tampa Bay. The Bucs are off to a slow start on offense with injuries a factor. The Chiefs have not been the high-powered offense we‘re accustomed to, totaling 44 points in their last two games after their 44-21 Week 1 win over the Cardinals.
By the numbers: Kansas City is on a 14-6-1 ATS run on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. … The Bucs are on a 5-15-1 spread slide in October.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Bucs 17
Rams (2-1) at 49ers (1-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Line/total: 49ers -1½, 42½
Analysis: The defending Super Bowl champion Rams hit the road to visit the 49ers in an NFC West showdown Monday night. The Niners have won six in a row over the Rams in the regular season, but Los Angeles won the matchup that mattered most in January’s NFC title game. Tough call.
By the numbers: The Rams are on a 31-15-1 ATS streak vs. the NFC and 4-1 ATS on Monday night. … The 49ers are riding a 14-4 cover streak on Monday night and a 5-0 ATS run at home.
Pick: Rams 26, 49ers 21
