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NFL betting breakdown: Week 11

Updated November 21, 2020 - 12:38 pm

Joe D’Amico, @joedamicowins, Aasiwins.com

Chiefs (8-1) at Raiders (6-3)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -8, 57

Analysis: Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs do not like losing. Kansas City’s loss came against Las Vegas in a 40-32 defeat Oct. 11 at Arrowhead Stadium. Since then, the Chiefs have won four straight games by an average of 16 points while going 3-1 ATS. Need I remind you that this is the point in the season when the Raiders usually start to plunge. Kansas City can get some payback while basically putting the division away in the process.

By the numbers: The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games at the Raiders. … Kansas City is riding a 24-9-1 cover streak on the road and 33-16-2 ATS streak overall. … Including playoffs, Reid’s teams are 23-5 straight up after a bye and 20-8 ATS.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Raiders 23

Eagles (3-5-1) at Browns (6-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Browns -3, 47½

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the board to handicap. Quarterback Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia offense, which has seen the return of key personnel, can move the ball in the air here. But Cleveland will slow the game and control the tempo and clock behind running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who have combined for 1,094 yards rushing and eight touchdowns.

By the numbers: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. … The Eagles are on a 5-2 under run and the Browns are on a 4-1 under streak in November.

Pick: Browns 24, Eagles 21

Falcons (3-6) at Saints (7-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -3½, 49

Analysis: New Orleans is without QB Drew Brees. The Saints went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm when Brees was injured last season. But QBs Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill can’t combine to be Bridgewater. Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s offense have gotten in sync, resulting in three wins and covers in their last four outings. I like the hook in this game. Grab that 3½.

By the numbers: The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this division rivalry. … The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. … The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24

Lions (4-5) at Panthers (3-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions -2, 46½

Analysis: In one of this week’s largest line movements, the Lions went from 2-point underdogs to 2-point favorites. There are quarterback issues on both teams. The Panthers have lost five straight and are again without their main offensive weapon in injured running back Christian McCaffrey. The Lions have won and covered three of their last five to creep into playoff contention. Detroit seems to beat lesser foes, and Carolina certainly falls into that category.

By the numbers: The Panthers are on a 1-7-1 spread slide at home, 4-10-1 ATS vs. the NFC and 3-7-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Pick: Lions 27, Panthers 23

Patriots (4-5) at Texans (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -2½, 48½

Analysis: New England coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots are not accustomed to having a losing record at this stage of the season. But they have turned a corner in winning their last two games. Look for QB Cam Newton and the NFL’s No. 2 rushing attack to terrorize the Texans’ league-worst run defense, which will open up New England’s passing game.

By the numbers: The Patriots are riding a 22-8 ATS streak vs. teams with a losing record. … The Texans are on a 2-8 spread slide. … New England is on a 13-6 under run vs. teams with a losing record, and the under is 4-1 in Houston’s last five home games.

Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 17

Steelers (9-0) at Jaguars (1-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Steelers -10½, 46

Analysis: Don’t fall into the trap of judging a team based solely on its last outing. The Jaguars made a nice showing in last week’s four-point loss and cover at Green Bay. But rookie QB Jake Luton is in for the longest day of his career against the Steelers’ No. 3 scoring defense (19 points per game allowed). Also, don’t put any stock into the fact that Pittsburgh has Baltimore on deck on Thanksgiving. The Steelers’ No. 4 scoring offense (30.1 ppg) is going to shred Jacksonville’s No. 31 scoring defense (30.1 ppga).

By the numbers: The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. … The Steelers are on a 5-0 cover streak vs. the AFC. … The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS vs. the AFC.

Pick: Steelers 36, Jaguars 13

Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington (2-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Washington -1½, 47

Analysis: The two top picks in the 2020 NFL draft square off, as Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow and Washington defensive end Chase Young face each other. The side on this game is tough to call. But you can expect an aerial shootout with quite a bit of scoring.

By the numbers: The Bengals are riding a 7-1 over run after a loss and a 3-0-1 over surge overall. … Washington has gone over in its last five Week 11 games, and the over is 5-1 in the Football Team’s last six games after an ATS loss.

Pick: Washington 27, Bengals 24

Titans (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Ravens -6, 49½

Analysis: As a handicapper, I would normally look at Tennessee plus the points here. But this is a revenge matchup Baltimore has had circled since the schedule was released. The Titans eliminated the Ravens from last season’s playoffs, winning 28-12 as 10-point underdogs. Look for Baltimore’s top-ranked scoring defense (18.3 ppga) to force mistakes from Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill, while the Ravens’ No. 1 rushing attack moves the chains.

By the numbers: The Titans are on an 0-4 spread skid on the road and a 3-7 ATS slide overall.

Pick: Ravens 31, Titans 21

Dolphins (6-3) at Broncos (3-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 45½

Analysis: Miami is riding a five-game win and cover streak that has been helped by rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa. But it’s the Dolphins’ No. 5 scoring defense (20.2 ppga) that will shine here. Whether or not it’s Drew Lock (questionable) at quarterback for the Broncos, the deplorable Denver offense (20.7 ppg) won’t be able to keep pace with Miami (27.9 ppg).

By the numbers: Miami is 4-0 ATS in its past four trips to Denver and has covered seven of the last eight meetings overall. … The Dolphins are riding a 16-5 cover streak overall.

Pick: Dolphins 31, Broncos 20

Jets (0-9) at Chargers (2-7)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -9½, 46½

Analysis: I know a lot of sharp money is going to be on the Jets, as I can’t see laying almost double digits with the Chargers against any team above the high school level. While Los Angeles has been competitive in just about every game, New York and veteran QB Joe Flacco scored 27 points against the Patriots last time out.

By the numbers: The Jets have covered seven of the last 10 meetings. … The Chargers are on a 1-7-1 ATS slide as home favorites.

Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 23

Cowboys (2-7) at Vikings (4-5)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Vikings -7, 48

Analysis: Dallas finally covered the spread against Pittsburgh in its last game. But it’s not going to happen again here. Cowboys QB Andy Dalton is expected to start in place of Garrett Gilbert. But it won’t matter who is under center. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is getting pounded, and without a ground game to keep Minnesota’s defense honest, Dallas’ offense won’t be able to move the ball. Running back Dalvin Cook has brought the Vikings’ offense back to life, and the Cowboys have one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses. Cook will allow Kirk Cousins to pass the ball at will.

By the numbers: The Vikings have covered the last five meetings and are riding a 6-1 ATS streak overall. … The Cowboys are on an 0-6 ATS skid on the road and on a 1-8 spread slide overall.

Pick: Vikings 27, Cowboys 17

Packers (7-2) at Colts (6-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Colts -1½, 51½

Analysis: I don’t care how good the Colts are on defense. Any time I can get points with Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, especially coming off a lackluster outing, it piques my curiosity. But when the Packers are tied for the NFC’s best record, I go from curious to interested. Green Bay’s defense leaves a bit to be desired, but the Indianapolis offense coughs up the ball a lot (nine turnovers).

By the numbers: The Packers are riding a 5-2 ATS surge as underdogs, are 7-1 ATS on FieldTurf and 8-3 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. … The last five meetings have gone over the total.

Pick: Packers 27, Colts 26

Rams (6-3) at Buccaneers (7-3)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/total: Buccaneers -4, 48

Analysis: The Rams are going to have a letdown after last week’s 23-16 win over the Seahawks. Not only does Tampa Bay have the defense to shake up Los Angeles’ offense, but it’s hard to go against Tom Brady in the “Monday Night Football” spotlight. The Buccaneers beat the Rams 55-40 last season, and they’re a better offense now.

By the numbers: The Rams are on a 6-13-1 ATS slide as underdogs and are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on Monday night. … The Bucs are riding a 14-3 over run vs. the NFC and an 18-6 over uptick overall. … Los Angeles is on a 5-0 over surge as an underdog and 5-0 over run vs. the NFC.

Pick: Buccaneers 31, Rams 24

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