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NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Underdogs, unders sweep, ousting No. 1 seeds

Updated January 22, 2022 - 9:57 pm

Welcome to the first day of the NFL divisional playoffs.

Both No. 1 seeds are in action today. First, the Tennessee Titans, the top seed in the AFC, welcome the No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals. Then, the Green Bay Packers, the NFC’s best, host the No. 6 San Francisco 49ers.

Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.

UPDATES

8:40 p.m.: That’s it for today. Say so long to the No. 1 seeds, as both favorites lost straight-up on field goals on the final play. First, the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Tennessee Titans 19-16 at +180, then the San Francisco 49ers knocked off the Green Bay Packers 13-10 at +220. Totals easily went 2-0 to the under.

Here are the betting results from today’s games, plus some key boxscore stats:

— Bengals 19, Titans 16 (at Tennessee)

Full-game winners: Bengals +4, under 48½, Bengals +180 ML

First-half winners: Bengals +3, under 23½ (Bengals 9-6)

Second-half winners: Bengals +2, under 23½ (tied 10-10)

Yards per play: Bengals 5.4, Titans 6.8 (Titans lead 353-345 in total yards)

Turnovers: Bengals +2 (3-1)

Biggest lead: Bengals 16-6; Titans never led (tied 6-6 and 16-16)

— 49ers 13, Packers 10 (at Green Bay)

Full-game winners: 49ers +6, under 47, 49ers +220 ML

First-half winners: Packers -3, under 23½ (Packers 7-0)

Second-half winners: 49ers +½, under 22½ (49ers 13-3)

Yards per play: 49ers 4.1, Packers 4.9 (Packers lead 263-212 in total yards)

Turnovers: Even (1-1)

Biggest lead: 49ers 13-10 (only lead; tied 10-10); Packers 7-0 and 10-3

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back Sunday for Rams-Buccaneers and Bills-Chiefs.

8:20 p.m.: Final prop grades for 49ers-Packers:

Team totals: Packers under 26½ (10, +100), 49ers under 20½ (13).

General props: First team to score (Packers, -155); first score will be a touchdown (yes, -170); under 5½ total touchdowns (2, -130); largest lead 14½ points (7, -120); longest TD under 38½ yards (6); shortest TD over 1½ yards (6, +135); under 3½ total made field goals (3, -170); longest made field goal under 45½ yards (45); will the game go to overtime (no, -1,610); will there be a safety (no, -1,610); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes, +260); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no, -340); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes, +120); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes, +300); will either team score three straight times (no, +175); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (no, +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes, +110, at 10-10); will there be a scoreless quarter (yes, +340, second); will the 49ers score in every quarter (no, -345, first and second); will the Packers score in every quarter (no, -190, second and third); will any player have 400 or more passing yards (no, -1,600); will any player have 100 or more rushing yards (no, -190); will any player have 150 or more receiving yards (no, -310); will any player score two or more TDs (no, +170).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers under 24½ completions (20), under 34½ attempts (29), under 270½ passing yards (225), longest completion over 36½ yards (75), under 2½ TD passes (0, -200), will throw an interception (no, -220), under 7½ rushing yards (0), will score a TD (no, -580); Aaron Jones under 50½ rushing yards (41), over 22½ receiving yards (129), will score a TD (no, -135); AJ Dillon under 39 rushing yards (25), will score a TD (yes, +145); Davante Adams under 93½ receiving yards (90), over 7½ receptions (9, -155), will score a TD (no, +115); Allen Lazard under 38 receiving yards (6), will score a TD (no, -240); Randall Cobb under 27½ receiving yards (0), will score a TD (no, -315); Mason Crosby under 7½ kicking points (4, -120).

49ers props: Jimmy Garoppolo under 19½ completions (11), under 29½ attempts (19), under 229½ passing yards (131), longest completion under 35½ yards (24), under 1½ TD passes (0, -140), will throw an interception (yes, -155), under 1½ rushing yards (0), will score a TD (no, -1,310); Elijah Mitchell under 81½ rushing yards (53), will score a TD (no, -145); Deebo Samuel over 38½ rushing yards (39), under 52½ receiving yards (44), will score a TD (no, -145); Brandon Aiyuk under 47½ receiving yards (0), will score a TD (no, -350); George Kittle over 52½ receiving yards (63), will score a TD (no, -240); Robbie Gould over 6½ kicking points (7, +100).

8:08 p.m.: FINAL: 49ers 13, Packers 10. Robbie Gould kicks a 45-yard field goal on the final play, and the 49ers win outright as 6-point road underdogs, +220 ML. The game stays well under 47.

7:59 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The 49ers have second-and-6 at their 45.

7:56 p.m.: The Packers go three-and-out, and the 49ers have a chance to win, with the game tied at 10 with 3:20 left in the fourth quarter. The 49ers are -138 on the live line (Packers +110).

7:50 p.m.: There will be a defensive or special teams TD cashes at +260.

7:49 p.m.: Wow. The 49ers score on a blocked punt and tie the Packers at 10 with 4:41 left in the fourth quarter. The Packers are -215 on the live line (49ers +168).

7:40 p.m.: The 49ers are stuffed on fourth-and-1 at the Packers 20 with 6:10 left in the fourth quarter. The Packers are -1,200 on the live line (49ers +660).

7:29 p.m.: The Packers extend their lead on a 33-yard field goal. The Packers lead 10-3 with 11:27 left in the fourth quarter and are -730 on the live line (49ers +470).

7:22 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Packers 7, 49ers 3. The Packers are driving, with second-and-9 at the 49ers 18.

7:12 p.m.: The Packers force a three-and-out and have the ball back at their 28, leading 7-3 with 5:28 left in the third quarter. The Packers are -410 on the live line (49ers +300), spread -5½, total 24½.

7:06 p.m.: The 49ers force a three-and-out and have the ball back at their 28, trailing 7-3 with 7:02 left in the third quarter. The Packers are -280 on the live line (49ers +215), spread -4½, total 26½.

7:02 p.m.: The 49ers are on the board with a 29-yard field goal. The Packers lead 7-3 with 8:13 left in the third quarter and are -460 on the live line (49ers +330), spread -6½, total 27½.

6:50 p.m.: The second half is underway. The 49ers receive.

6:40 p.m.: Live line at halftime: Packers -520/49ers +360, spread -7½, total 29½.

6:39 p.m.: Second-half line: Packers -½, total 22½.

6:37 p.m.: HALFTIME: Packers 7, 49ers 0. First-half winners: Packers -3, under 23½.

6:30 p.m.: A great drive for San Francisco ends with a Jimmy Garoppolo interception at the Packers 4-yard line with 56 seconds left in the second quarter. Garoppolo was -155 to throw an interception.

6:24 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The 49ers are on the move, with second-and-4 at the Packers 25.

6:16 p.m.: Punt. The 49ers have the ball at their 23, trailing 7-0 with 6:41 left in the second quarter. The Packers are -450 on the live line (49ers +320), spread -7½, total 34½.

6:06 p.m.: You guessed it, another punt. The Packers have the ball at their 25 with a 7-0 lead and are -520 on the live line (49ers +360), spread -9½, total 39½.

6:01 p.m.: The game has slowed since the opening drive. The Packers punt, and the 49ers have the ball back, trailing 7-0 with 13:07 left in the second quarter. The Packers are -410 on the live line (49ers +300), spread -7½, total 40½.

5:56 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Packers 7, 49ers 0. First-quarter winners: Packers -½, under 9½.

5:55 p.m.: The 49ers punt the ball right back after a George Kittle drop.

5:49 p.m.: The Packers go three-and-out, and the 49ers have the ball back, trailing 7-0 with 1:16 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -400 on the live line (49ers +290), spread -7½, total 43½.

5:46 p.m.: The 49ers get a fumble overturned on review but still have to punt with 2:20 left in the first quarter.

5:37 p.m.: The 49ers force a fumble and get the ball back at their 42 with 3:51 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -340 on the live line (49ers +255), spread -7½, total 46½.

5:30 p.m.: The 49ers go three-and-out, and the Packers have the ball right back with 6:45 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -560 on the live line (49ers +385), spread -10½, total 47½.

5:26 p.m.: The Packers score first at -155. The first score will be a touchdown cashes at -170.

5:25 p.m.: Dillon was 11-1 at Circa Sports to score the first TD (+950 at Boyd Gaming and 8-1 at the Westgate SuperBook). He was +145 to score at any point.

5:24 p.m.: Great start for the Packers. AJ Dillon caps the opening drive with a 6-yard TD run, and the Packers lead the 49ers 7-0 with 9:25 left in the first quarter. The Packers are -430 on the live line (49ers +310), spread -9½, total 49½.

5:16 p.m.: The game is underway. The Packers receive.

5:12 p.m.: The next game is about to kick off:

— 49ers (+220) at Packers (-6, 47, -260), 5:15 p.m.

4:40 p.m.: Final prop grades for Bengals-Titans:

Team totals: Titans under 26½ (16), Bengals under 21½ (19, +100).

General props: First team to score (Bengals, +115); first score will be a touchdown (no, +140); under 5½ total touchdowns (3, -120); largest lead under 14½ points (10, -120); longest TD under 39½ yards (33); shortest TD over 1½ yards (3, +145); over 3½ total made field goals (5, +130); longest made field goal over 46 yards (54 and 52); will the game go to overtime (no, -1,500); will there be a safety (no, -1,610); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (no, -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (no, -340); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes, +110); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (no, -330); will either team score three straight times (no, +170); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes, -330); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes, +100, at 6-6 and 16-16); will there be a scoreless quarter (no, -425); will the Bengals score in every quarter (yes, +270); will the Titans score in every quarter (no, -190, in first and fourth); will any player have 400 or more passing yards (no, -1,000); will any player have 150 or more rushing yards (no, -435); will any player have 150 or more receiving yards (no, -365); will any player score two or more TDs (no, +155).

Titans props: Ryan Tannehill under 20½ completions (15), under 30½ attempts (24), under 229½ passing yards (220), longest completion over 34½ yards (41), under 1½ TD passes (1, -150), will throw an interception (yes, +105), under 14½ rushing yards (12), will score a TD (no, -315); Derrick Henry under 87½ rushing yards (62), will score a TD (yes, -180); A.J. Brown over 72½ receiving yards (142), under 5½ receptions (5, -125), will score a TD (yes, +155); Julio Jones over 45½ receiving yards (62), will score a TD (no, -330); Nick Westbrook-Ikhine under 27 receiving yards (0), will score a TD (no, -330); Randy Bullock under 7½ kicking points (4).

Bengals props: Joe Burrow over 24½ completions (28), over 36½ attempts (37), over 279½ passing yards (348), longest completion over 38½ yards (57), under 1½ TD passes (0, +145), will throw an interception (yes, -120), under 8 rushing yards (5), will score a TD (no, -915); Joe Mixon under 56½ rushing yards (54), over 21 receiving yards (51), will score a TD (yes, -120); Ja’Marr Chase over 80½ receiving yards (109), under 5½ receptions (5, +110), will score a TD (no, -160); Tee Higgins over 64½ receiving yards (96), will score a TD (no, -220); Tyler Boyd under 44 receiving yards (17), will score a TD (no, -330); C.J. Uzomah over 29½ receiving yards (71), will score a TD (no, -400); Evan McPherson over 6½ kicking points (13).

4:31 p.m.: FINAL: Bengals 19, Titans 16. Evan McPherson kicks a 52-yard field goal on the final play, and the Titans win outright as 4-point road underdogs, +180 ML. The game easily stays under 48½. Cincinnati will play at the Chiefs or Bills in the AFC championship game.

4:26 p.m.: The Bengals make another interception off a deflection. They have the ball at their 47 with 20 seconds left.

4:20 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Titans face second-and-7 at their 19.

4:18 p.m.: Burrow is sacked for the ninth time, and the Bengals punt with 2:43 left. The Titans are -158 on the live line (Bengals +126).

4:10 p.m.: The Titans fail on fourth down at the Bengals 37. Cincinnati takes over with 7:14 to play with the game tied at 16. The Bengals are -132 on the live line (Titans +106).

4:03 p.m.: A sack takes the Bengals out of field goal range, and they punt with 11:18 left in the fourth quarter. The Titans are -160 on the live line (Bengals +130), total 41½.

3:56 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Titans 16, Bengals 16.

3:54 p.m.: Brown was +155 to score a TD.

3:53 p.m.: New ballgame. A.J. Brown catches a 33-yard TD pass, and the Titans tie the Bengals at 16 with 15 seconds left in the third quarter. The Titans are -128 on the live line (Bengals +102), spread -2½, total 44½.

3:52 p.m.: Burrow was -120 to throw an interception.

3:51 p.m.: Big break for the Titans. Joe Burrow throws an interception off a deflection, and after a long video review, the Titans take over at the Bengals 27 with 1:19 left in the third quarter.

3:45 p.m.: Over 3½ field goals cashes at +130. Both teams will make 33-yard or longer field goals cashes at +110.

3:44 p.m.: The Titans draw closer on a 34-yard field goal. The Bengals lead 16-9 with 1:36 left in the third quarter and are -380 on the live line (Titans +280), spread -6½, total 38½.

3:37 p.m.: The Titans force a three-and-out and have the ball back with 5:00 left in the third quarter. The Bengals are -310 on the live line (Titans +235), spread -5½, total 38½.

3:31 p.m.: Huge play for the Bengals. The Titans drove inside the Cincinnati 10 after a 45-yard run by D’Onta Foreman, then Tannehill threw an interception on the next play off a deflection. The Bengals lead 16-6 with 6:41 left in the third quarter and are -460 on the live line (Titans +330), spread -6½, total 39½.

3:24 p.m.: Mixon was -120 to score a TD.

3:23 p.m.: The Titans are in trouble. Joe Mixon scores on a 16-yard run, and the Bengals extend their lead to 16-6 with 9:34 left in the third quarter. The Bengals are -275 on the live line (Titans +210), spread -5½, total 41½.

3:14 p.m.: The second half is underway. The Bengals receive.

3:03 p.m.: Live line at halftime: Bengals -128/Titans +102, spread -1½, total 38½.

3:02 p.m.: Second-half line: Titans -2, total 23½.

3:01 p.m.: HALFTIME: Bengals 9, Titans 6. First-half winners: Bengals +3, under 23½, Bengals +160 ML.

2:54 p.m.: The Titans punt, and the Bengals will have a chance to extend their lead with 1:02 left in the second quarter.

2:48 p.m.: McPherson cashes over 6½ kicking points and longest made field goal over 46 yards. There will be a score in the final two minutes of the first half cashes at -330.

2:47 p.m.: The Bengals retake the lead at 9-6 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:35 left in the second quarter. The Bengals are -118 on the live line (Titans -106), spread -1½, total 39½.

2:33 p.m.: Tannehill had a 41-yard completion on that drive, hitting his prop for longest completion over 34½.

2:32 p.m.: Henry was the +465 favorite at Circa Sports to score the first TD (+460 at Boyd Gaming and +425 at the Westgate SuperBook). He was -180 to score at any point in his first game back after a foot injury.

2:31 p.m.: The Titans have arrived. Derrick Henry scores on a 3-yard run on a direct snap, and the Titans tie the Bengals at 6 with 6:07 left in the second quarter. The Titans went for 2 after a penalty on the extra point moved the ball to the 1. The Titans are -145 on the live line (Bengals +116), spread -2½, total 41½.

2:19 p.m.: Life is good for under bettors. The Bengals punt again, and the Titans have the ball back, trailing 6-0 with 11:17 left in the second quarter. The Bengals are -145 on the live line (Titans +116), spread -2½, total 39½.

2:13 p.m.: The Titans punt on the first play of the second quarter.

2:10 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Bengals 6, Titans 0. First-quarter winners: Bengals +½, under 9½, Bengals +140 ML.

2:05 p.m.: The Bengals got in field goal range on a 57-yard catch-and-run by Ja’Marr Chase. Joe Burrow hits his longest completion over 38½ yards.

2:04 p.m.: The Bengals extend their lead to 6-0 on a 45-yard field goal with 2:11 left in the first quarter. The Bengals are -124 on the live line (Titans +100), spread -1½, total 44½.

1:58 p.m.: Another punt, and the Bengals have the ball back at their 12, leading 3-0 with 5:52 left in the first quarter. The Titans are -118 on the live line (Bengals -106), total 42½.

1:50 p.m.: The defenses are strong early. The Bengals go three-and-out, and the Titans have the ball, trailing 3-0 with 8:29 left in the first quarter. The Titans are favored again at -156 (Bengals +124), spread -2½, total 46½.

1:45 p.m.: The Titans go three-and-out, and the Bengals have the ball at their 31, leading 3-0 with 10:10 left in the first quarter. The Bengals are favored now at -122 (Titans -102), spread -1½, total 46½.

1:40 p.m.: The Bengals score first at +115. First score won’t be a touchdown cashes at +140.

1:39 p.m.: The Bengals score first on a 38-yard field goal from Evan McPherson with 12:03 left in the first quarter. The Titans are -138 on the live line (Bengals +110), spread -2½, total 49½.

1:34 p.m.: The Bengals intercept Ryan Tannehill on the first play. Tannehill was +105 to throw an interception.

1:33 p.m.: The game is underway. The Titans receive.

1:26 p.m.: The first game is about to kick off:

— Bengals (+180) at Titans (-4, 48½, -210), 1:30 p.m.

1:15 p.m.: “Mattress Mack” wasn’t on the sidelines for long.

After losing $4.7 million in six days on Alabama in the College Football Playoff title game and the New England Patriots, Houston furniture store owner Jim McIngvale, known as “Mattress Mack,” has essentially bet both sides of today’s first game — with a chance for a middle.

First, McIngvale bet $1.1 million to win $1 million on the Bengals +3½ against the Titans at Caesars Sports.

A few hours later, Caesars reported that McIngvale also placed a $700,000 futures wager on the Titans to win the Super Bowl at +850 for a potential win of $5.95 million.

If the Titans win by three or fewer points, McIngvale will have already covered his futures wager plus $300,000 with his Bengals winnings, and still have a live ticket going forward.

1:10 p.m.: Here are how the lines have moved today:

Titans from -3½ to -4

Bengals-Titans total from 47½ to 48½

1:05 p.m.: Here’s today’s schedule:

— Bengals (+180) at Titans (-4, 48½, -210), 1:30 p.m.

— 49ers (+220) at Packers (-6, 47, -260), 5:15 p.m.

12:55 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for Bengals-Titans:

Team totals: Titans 26½, Bengals 21½ (over -120).

General props: First team to score (Bengals +115/Titans -135); first score will be a touchdown (yes -160/no +140); 5½ total touchdowns (under -120); largest lead 14½ points (under -120); longest TD 39½ yards; shortest TD 1½ yards (under -165); 3½ total made field goals (under -150); longest made field goal 46 yards; will the game go to overtime (yes +945/no -1,500); will there be a safety (yes +1,000/no -1,610); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +280/no -340); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +270/no -330); will either team score three straight times (yes -190/no +170); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +100/no -120); will there be a scoreless quarter (yes +345/no -425); will the Bengals score in every quarter (yes +270/no -325); will the Titans score in every quarter (yes +165/no -190); will any player have 400 or more passing yards (yes +695/no -1,000); will any player have 150 or more rushing yards (yes +350/no -435); will any player have 150 or more receiving yards (yes +300/no -365); will any player score two or more TDs (yes -180/no +155).

Titans props: Ryan Tannehill 20½ completions, 30½ attempts, 229½ passing yards, longest completion 34½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -150), will throw an interception (yes +105/no -125), 14½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +265/no -315); Derrick Henry 87½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes -180/no +160); A.J. Brown 72½ receiving yards, 5½ receptions (under -125), will score a TD (yes +155/no -175); Julio Jones 45½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +275/no -330); Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 27 receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +275/no -330); Randy Bullock 7½ kicking points.

Bengals props: Joe Burrow 24½ completions, 36½ attempts, 279½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -165), will throw an interception (yes -120/no +100), 8 rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +650/no -915); Joe Mixon 56½ rushing yards, 21 receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -120/no +100); Ja’Marr Chase 80½ receiving yards, 5½ receptions (over -130), will score a TD (yes +140/no -160); Tee Higgins 64½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +190/no -220); Tyler Boyd 44 receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +275/no -330); C.J. Uzomah 29½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +325/no -400); Evan McPherson 6½ kicking points.

Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for 49ers-Packers:

Team totals: Packers 26½ (over -120), 49ers 20½.

General props: First team to score (49ers +135/Packers -155); first score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); 5½ total touchdowns (under -130); largest lead 14½ points (under -120); longest TD 38½ yards; shortest TD 1½ yards (under -155); 3½ total made field goals (under -170); longest made field goal 45½ yards; will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -1,610); will there be a safety (yes +1,000/no -1,610); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +260/no -310); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +280/no -340); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +120/no -140); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +300/no -360); will either team score three straight times (yes -200/no +175); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +110/no -130); will there be a scoreless quarter (yes +340/no -420); will the 49ers score in every quarter (yes +285/no -345); will the Packers score in every quarter (yes +165/no -190); will any player have 400 or more passing yards (yes +995/no -1,600); will any player have 100 or more rushing yards (yes +165/no -190); will any player have 150 or more receiving yards (yes +260/no -310); will any player score two or more TDs (yes -195/no +170).

Packers props: Aaron Rodgers 24½ completions, 34½ attempts, 270½ passing yards, longest completion 36½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -200), will throw an interception (yes +190/no -220), 7½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +450/no -580); Aaron Jones 50½ rushing yards, 22½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +115/no -135); AJ Dillon 39 rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +145/no -165); Davante Adams 93½ receiving yards, 7½ receptions (over -155), will score a TD (yes -135/no +115); Allen Lazard 38 receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +205/no -240); Randall Cobb 27½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +265/no -315); Mason Crosby 7½ kicking points (under -120).

49ers props: Jimmy Garoppolo 19½ completions, 29½ attempts, 229½ passing yards, longest completion 35½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -140), will throw an interception (yes -155/no +135), 1½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +850/no -1,310); Elijah Mitchell 81½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +125/no -145); Deebo Samuel 38½ rushing yards, 52½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +125/no -145); Brandon Aiyuk 47½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +290/no -350); George Kittle 52½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +200/no -240); Robbie Gould 6½ kicking points (under -120).

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter.

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