NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Favorites cash to earn trip to Super Bowl

By
Las Vegas Review-Journal
Kansas City Chiefs place kicker Harrison Butker (7) celebrates with teammates after his game wi ...

Welcome to NFL championship Sunday.

First, the No. 2 seed San Francisco 49ers visit the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC championship game. That is followed by the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs hosting the No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game.

The winners advance to the Super Bowl on Feb. 12 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.

UPDATES

7:14 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 2-0 against the spread, and totals were 2-0 to the under. The Eagles defeated the short-handed 49ers as 3-point favorites. Also, the Chiefs kicked a late field goal to cover as 2-point favorites against the Bengals.

Andy Reid vs. his former team.

Travis Kelce vs. Jason Kelce.

It should be a good game.

Thanks for reading!

7:10 p.m.: Here are the betting results from today’s game:

— Eagles 31, 49ers 7 (at Philadelphia)

Full-game winners: Eagles -3, under 44½, Eagles -155 ML

First-half winners: Eagles -1½, over 22 (Eagles 21-7)

Second-half winners: Eagles -½, under 19½ (Eagles 10-0)

Yards per play: 49ers 3.6, Eagles 3.8 (Eagles lead 269-164 in total yards)

Turnovers: Eagles +3 (3-0)

Biggest lead: 49ers never led, tied 7-7; Eagles 31-7

— Chiefs 23, Bengals 20 (at Kansas City)

Full-game winners: Chiefs -2, under 48½, Chiefs -135 ML

First-half winners: Chiefs -½, under 24 (Chiefs 13-6)

Second-half winners: Bengals -½, total 24 (Bengals 14-10)

Yards per play: Bengals 4.9, Chiefs 5.4 (Chiefs lead 357-309 in total yards)

Turnovers: Chiefs +1 (2-1)

Biggest lead: Bengals never led, tied 13-13 and 20-20; Chiefs 13-3

7:04 p.m.: Early Super Bowl odds:

7:03 p.m.: FINAL: Chiefs 23, Bengals 20. Harrison Butker nailed a 45-yard field goal with three seconds left to give the 2-point favorite the cover and a trip to the Super Bowl. The game stayed under the total of 48½.

6:59 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes scrambles for a first down on his bum ankle and draws a late hit penalty on top of it. The Chiefs are in field-goal position.

6:56 p.m.: Huge defensive play for the Chiefs to give them the ball last in regulation.

6:24 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes is over 25½ completions and 37½ attempts. Travis Kelce over 72½ receiving yards cashes, also.

6:21 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes is over 284½ passing yards on his prop.

6:15 p.m.: Samaje Perine bulls his way into the end zone from 2 yards out after Ja’Marr Chase’s 35-yard reception on fourth down. The Bengals and Chiefs are tied 20-20 early in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are -130 on the live line (Bengals even), total 51½.

6:10 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Chiefs 20, Bengals 13.

6:07 p.m.: Disaster for Patrick Mahomes, who fumbles as he is trying to throw a quick pass. The Bengals recover near midfield. The Chiefs are -240 on the live line (Bengals+195), total 48½.

5:55 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes zips a 19-yard touchdown pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and the Chiefs lead the Bengals 20-13 with 4:15 left in the third quarter. The Chiefs are -280 on the live line (Bengals +225), total 48½.

5:45 p.m.: Marquez Valdes-Scantling is well over 23½ receiving yards on his prop.

5:36 p.m.: Tee Higgins was +175 to score anytime TD.

5:34 p.m.: Tee Higgins high points the pass from Joe Burrow and it’s a 27-yard touchdown. The Bengals and Chiefs are tied 13-13 at the 9:54 mark of the third quarter. The Chiefs are -135 on the live line (Bengals +105), total 47½.

5:30 p.m.: Tony Romo wishes he played for the Bengals coaching staff.

5:22 p.m.: Bengals receiver Travis Boyd remains sidelined with a leg injury, according to the broadcast. He is currently over 32½ receiving yards but under 3½ receptions.

5:21 p.m.: The Chiefs get the ball to start the second half.

5:11 p.m.: Second-half line: Bengals -½, total 24.

5:06 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chiefs 13, Bengals 6. First-half winners: Chiefs -½, under 24. Patrick Mahomes connected with Travis Kelce for the only touchdown to help the favorites cover.

5:05 p.m.: The Bengals can’t punch it into the end zone and Evan McPherson adds a chip shot from 23 yards.

4:52 p.m.: Two-minute warning.

4:46 p.m.: Joe Burrow was even money to throw an interception. The Chiefs have an opportunity to put the Bengals in deep water 2:22 before the half. The Chiefs are -800 on the live line (Bengals +525), total 45½.

4:42 p.m.: Travis Kelce was +115 to score anytime TD.

4:40 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes rolls to the right and finds Travis Kelce for a 14-yard touchdown and the Chiefs lead the Bengals 13-3 with 3:53 until halftime. The Chiefs are -450 on the live line (Bengals +340), total 43½.

4:35 p.m.: Kadarius Toney is questionable with an ankle injury.

4:30 p.m.: Evan McPherson puts the Bengals on the board with a 30-yard field goal. The Chiefs lead 6-3 midway through the second quarter. The Chiefs are -230 on the live line (Bengals +185), total 40½.

4:18 p.m.: Harrison Butler is good from 24 yards and the Chiefs lead the Bengals 6-0 early in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -280 on the live line (Bengals +225), total 42½.

4:15 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Chiefs 3, Bengals 0. First-quarter winners: Chiefs -½, under 9½. The Chiefs had a late touchdown that would have covered the over negated by a holding penalty.

4:01 p.m.: That patchwork Bengals offensive line that held up well last week is struggling against the Chiefs pass rush. Joe Burrow has been sacked three times.

3:57 p.m.: Harrison Butker bangs through a 43-yard field goal, and the Chiefs take a 3-0 lead over the Bengals with 8:50 left in the first quarter. The Chiefs are -180 on the live line (Bengals +150), total 46½.

3:56 p.m.: The call on the field stands. Incomplete.

3:53 p.m.: Kadarius Toney bettors, please stand by.

3:47 p.m.: Solid opening series for the Chiefs defense, and let’s see how Patrick Mahomes looks on his high ankle sprain.

3:39 p.m.: The Bengals and Chiefs are about to kickoff in Kansas City.

3:32 p.m.: Travis Kelce is active for the Chiefs.

3:20 p.m.: The AFC championship game:

— Bengals (+110) at Chiefs (-2, 48½, -130), 3:30 p.m.

3:17 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the Bengals-Chiefs game:

Team totals: Bengals 23½ (over -125), Chiefs 25½.

Alternate point spreads: Bengals -7½ (+320), +7½ (-280); Chiefs +7½ (-380), -7½ (+240).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); largest lead 14½ points (under -140); longest TD 39½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +330/no -400); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes even/no -120); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +270/no -330); will either team score three straight times (yes -180/no +160); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -330/no +270); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes/no -110).

Bengals props: Joe Burrow 25½ completions, 37½ attempts, 278½ passing yards, longest completion 36½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -190), will throw an interception (yes even/no -120), 17½ rushing yards; Joe Mixon 85½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes even/no -120); Ja’Marr Chase 84½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions (over -135), will score a TD (yes/no -110); Tee Higgins 58½ receiving yards, 4½ receptions (over -120), will score a TD (yes +175/no -200); Tyler Boyd 32½ receiving yards, 3½ receptions (under -150), will score a TD (yes +290/no -350); Hayden Hurst 34½ receiving yards; Evan McPherson 7½ kicking points (under -130).

Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes 25½ completions, 37½ attempts, 284½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 2½ TD passes (under -175), will throw an interception (yes/no -110); Isiah Pacheco 48½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +165/no -185); Jerick McKinnon 54½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +150/no -170); JuJu Smith-Schuster 43½ receiving yards, 3½ receptions, (over -140), will score a TD (yes +250/no -300); Kadarius Toney 25½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +300/no -360); Marquez Valdes-Scantling 23½ receiving yards; Travis Kelce 72½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions (under -120), will score a TD (yes +115/no -135); Harrison Butker 7½ kicking points (under -130).

3:07 p.m.: FINAL: Eagles 31, 49ers 7. Miles Sanders had two of the Eagles’ four rushing touchdowns, and the 3-point favorites covered easily with the 49ers QBs wiped out by injury. The game stayed under the total of 44½.

2:56 p.m.: Fight! Fight!

2:49 p.m.: Jake Elliott adds a 31-yard field goal to push the Eagles lead to 31-7 over the 49ers with 5:17 left in the fourth quarter.

2:47 p.m.: This hasn’t been a fair fight since Brock Purdy injured his elbow at the end of the 49ers first drive.

2:31 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER: Eagles 28, 49ers 7.

2:26 p.m.: Jalen Hurts was +120 to score anytime TD.

2:25 p.m.: The Eagles are in total control now. Jalen Hurts sneaks into the end zone from 1 yard away and lead the 49ers 28-7 with 43 seconds left in the third quarter. That was a 15-play, 91-yard drive. The Eagles are -21½ on the live spread, total 43½.

2:20 p.m.: Penalties are crushing the 49ers.

2:07 p.m.: It looks like Brock Purdy will return with Josh Johnson out with an apparent concussion. Chaos. The Eagles are -1600 on the live line (49ers +850), total 45½.

1:59 p.m.: The 49ers are being forced to use Brock Purdy at QB for at least one play with Josh Johnson pulled by the concussion spotter, and they are in total desperation mode right now. The Eagles are -5000 on the live line (49ers +1600), total 44½.

1:54 p.m.: The second half is underway. The 49ers get the ball to start.

1:45 p.m.: Second-half line: Eagles -½, total 19½.

1:41 p.m.: HALFTIME: Eagles 21, 49ers 7. First-half winners: Eagles -1½, over 22. The underdogs are down to their fourth-string QB after Brock Purdy left with an elbow injury. A late Boston Scott TD for the Eagles sent the total over.

1:35 p.m.: Boston Scott cashes in on the fumble with a 10-yard TD run. The Eagles lead 21-7 with 16 seconds left in the half after two-point conversion bettors were teased. The Eagles are -2000 on the live line (49ers +1000), total 47½.

1:34 p.m.: Dallas Goedert over 4½ receptions on his prop.

1:32 p.m.: Josh Johnson fumbles the snap and the Eagles recover in 49ers territory. The Eagles recover and that could be a backbreaker for the underdogs.

1:27 p.m.: Miles Sanders finds a hole over the left side and scores from 13 yards out for his second rushing touchdown of the game. The Eagles lead the 49ers 14-7 with 1:36 remaining in the first half. The Eagles are -500 on the live line (49ers +375), total 43½.

1:22 p.m.: Two-minute warning and the Eagles are driving. The Eagles are -350 on the live line (49ers +270), total 40½.

1:10 p.m.: Christian McCaffrey was -130 to score anytime TD.

1:07 p.m.: The 49ers take advantage of a short field and Christian McCaffrey does all the heavy lifting on the drive then pinballs into the end zone for a 23-yard touchdown run. The 49ers and Eagles are tied 7-7 with 8:29 left in the second quarter. The Eagles are -200 on the live line (49ers +165), spread -3½, total 41½.

1 p.m.: The defense is doing what it can to keep the 49ers in the game.

12:55 p.m.: A promising drive for the 49ers fizzles. The Eagles are -550 on the live line (49ers +400), spread -9½, total 36½.

12:50 p.m.: Fun fact. Josh Johnson went to the University of San Diego, where his coach was Jim Harbaugh.

12:48 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER: Eagles 7, 49ers 0. First-quarter winners: Eagles -½, under 7½. The Eagles are -350 on the live line (49ers +270), spread -7½, total 40½.

12:45 p.m.: While they look to see whether the punt hit the wire, here’s some Josh Johnson trivia: He was a high school teammate of Marshawn Lynch at Oakland Tech. His father coached high school basketball at St. Joseph, which is Jason Kidd’s alma mater.

12:39 p.m.: The Eagles are -600 on the live line (49ers +420), spread -10½, total 40½.

12:33 p.m.: Brock Purdy injured his throwing arm on the previous drive and backup Josh Johnson is now at QB for the 49ers.

12:27 p.m.: After review, it is a fumble and the Eagles recover. The Eagles are -300 on the live line (49ers +240), spread -6½, total 47½.

12:25 p.m.: That looks like a fumble by Brock Purdy. The Eagles are challenging.

12:16 p.m.: Miles Sanders was +950 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the game’s first TD and +150 to score anytime TD.

12:14 p.m.: Ridiculous catch by DeVonta Smith to convert on fourth down, and that’s followed by Miles Sanders blasting up the middle for a 6-yard touchdown. The Eagles lead the 49ers 7-0 after the opening drive. The Eagles are -250 on the live line (49ers +200), spread -5½, total 48½.

12:11 p.m.: 49ers linebacker Fred Warner is back in the game after being injured on the second play.

12:06 p.m.: The 49ers and Eagles are underway in wet and windy Philadelphia. The Eagles get the ball first.

11:53 a.m.: 49ers-Eagles total down to 44½ at the Westgate SuperBook.

11:50 a.m.: The scene at Station Casinos:

11:48 a.m.: Most bet player props Eagles-49ers at @BetMGM

Christian McCaffrey to score 1st TD (+500)

McCaffrey to score anytime TD (-130)

A.J. Brown over 72½ receiving yards (-115)

DeVonta Smith over 66½ receiving yards (-115)

Brock Purdy over 8½ rushing yards (-130)

11:46 a.m.: Updated Eagles-49ers betting at @BetMGM

Eagles open -2, now -3

▪️ 72% of bets, 81% of money on Eagles

Total open 45½, now 44½

▪️ 64% of bets, 65% of money on Under

49ers open +115, now +130

▪️ 56% of bets, 31% of money on 49ers

11:44 a.m.: BetMGM needs the Niners.

11:42 a.m.: Spicy.

11:37 a.m.: A few numbers to consider courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:

— “Clubs coming off a win of 30 or more points in the divisional playoffs are 6-7 SU and 4-9 ATS in conference championship games.” Philadelphia beat the New York Giants 38-7 last week.

— “In regular and postseason games as home favorites with (Jalen) Hurts as the starting quarterback, the Eagles are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS. Overall, Hurts is 20-3 outright in games in which his team is favored, the best record in the Super Bowl era for QBs with at least 20 starts.”

— “(Brock) Purdy will be the fifth rookie QB to start a conference championship game, but none of the previous four – Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets), Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens), Roethlisberger and Shaun King (1999 Bucs) – made it to the Super Bowl, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. King was the only one of the four to cover.”

— “Since 2019, the 49ers are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS as road underdogs (including playoffs). Those are the best records in the NFL over that span (min. 5 games). Under Kyle Shanahan, the Niners are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the playoffs, including five straight covers.”

— “The 49ers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in games played in the Eastern time zone over the last three seasons.”

11:35 a.m.: News from the AFC championship game. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is listed as a game-time decision, according to the Fox pregame show.

11 a.m.: Here is today’s schedule:

— 49ers (+135) at Eagles (-3, 45, -155), noon

— Bengals (+115) at Chiefs (-2, 48, -135), 3:30 p.m.

10:55 a.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the 49ers-Eagles game:

Team totals: 49ers 21½ (under -120), Eagles 24½ (under -120).

Alternate point spreads: 49ers -3½ (+215), +7½ (-250); Eagles +3½ (-255), -7½ (+210).

General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -165/no +145); largest lead 14½ points (under -140); longest TD 38½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,000/no -2,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +330/no -400); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes even/no -120); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +270/no -330); will either team score three straight times (yes -170/no +150); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -310/no +260); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes even/no -120).

49ers props: Brock Purdy 19½ completions, 31½ attempts, 219½ passing yards, longest completion 35½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -140), will throw an interception (yes -140/no +120), 6½ rushing yards; Christian McCaffrey 98½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -130/no +110); Deebo Samuel 76½ rushing+receiving yards, 4½ receptions (under -120), will score a TD (yes +165/no -185); Brandon Aiyuk 45½ receiving yards, 3½ receptions (over -120), will score a TD (yes +270/no -330); Jauan Jennings 19½ receiving yards; George Kittle 44½ receiving yards, 3½ receptions (over -145), will score a TD (yes +180/no -210) Robbie Gould 6½ kicking points (over -130).

Eagles props: Jalen Hurts 21½ completions, 33½ attempts, 248½ passing yards, longest completion 40½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -120), will throw an interception (yes/no -110), 45½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +120/no -140); Miles Sanders 50½ rushing yards, will score a TD (yes +150/no -170); A.J. Brown 76½ receiving yards, 4½ receptions (over -160), will score a TD (yes +145/no -165); DeVonta Smith 67½ receiving yards, 5½ receptions (under -120), will score a TD (yes +175/no -200); Dallas Goedert 45½ receiving yards, 4½ receptions (under -135), will score a TD (yes +210/no -250); Jake Elliott 6½ kicking points (over -140).

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.

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